Powerball Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 29*F at DET and 27*F at DTW right now (forecast called for a high of 27*F). Dewpoints still in the mid teens though (they stopped their rise for now). Had a few peeks of sun this morning, but otherwise it's been mostly overcast. A toasty 30*F at DET and 28*F at DTW now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 37/12 here, but I expect the temp to fall to somewhere around freezing once the precip gets going in earnest. Don't think we will get much accretion here except maybe untreated roadways. It's been down around zero several nights the past week and the ground is frozen solid. I don't think there is going to much that runs off on those roads once the sun goes down unless we really over perform on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 1.70" on the 9z SREF here. Right now there's quite a bit of sun up this way. 15z HRRR showing a mini band up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 32 at IND but dewpoint only 13. That should help once precip begins. Then the question becomes, do temps eventually rise again and poke above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Soundings on most models seem more sleety to me so I'm not convinced we pull off that amount of ice but it's a close one. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Wondering if the best icing may end up just north of IND proper. Final call for LAF: 2-3" snow/sleet, 0.1" or less zr....and hopefully not any plain rain Yeah, I would agree with the soundings. Just having a sneaking feeling the ZR ends up a little further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 This may not be the case everywhere but dews are running well below raw model output at IND...by like 7-10 degrees. And with temps running on the higher end, much better T/Td spreads. Edit: though the 00z Euro did a pretty good job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yeah, I would agree with the soundings. Just having a sneaking feeling the ZR ends up a little further north... Wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Soundings on most models seem more sleety to me so I'm not convinced we pull off that amount of ice but it's a close one. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Wondering if the best icing may end up just north of IND proper. Final call for LAF: 2-3" snow/sleet, 0.1" or less zr....and hopefully not any plain rain At this point, I think I'd be surprised if we see any snow at all. Warmth is definitely over-performing, so I'm thinking a 50/50 cocktail of mix and cold rain. 34˚/17˚ here right now, and rapidly rising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 At this point, I think I'd be surprised if we see any snow at all. Warmth is definitely over-performing, so I'm thinking a 50/50 cocktail of mix and cold rain. 34˚/17˚ here right now, and rapidly rising... Looks like we might wear it in terms of sleet. Hoping we can get some last minute alteration here. Could start as a brief period of flakes at onset (not necessarily counting on it) before we deal with the messy stuff. I think we'll change to snow eventually but my 2-3" factors in sleet and I think the straight snow will only amount to an inch, maybe two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 32 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 At this point, I think I'd be surprised if we see any snow at all. Warmth is definitely over-performing, so I'm thinking a 50/50 cocktail of mix and cold rain. 34˚/17˚ here right now, and rapidly rising... 32/20 at my place. Decided to fire up the grill in this heatwave... so that may or may not contribute to the warm temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 32/20 at my place. Decided to fire up the grill in this heatwave... so that may or may not contribute to the warm temps lol it sure does feel like summer at 28 degrees right now here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 32/20 at my place. Decided to fire up the grill in this heatwave... so that may or may not contribute to the warm temps lol. What are we cooking? A couple of local PWS's warmer than me right now. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not quite the same but HRRR trying to pull an RGEM with temps later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Not quite the same but HRRR trying to pull an RGEM with temps later Pay no mind to the clearly wrong p-type on this map, but it does show a little bubble of above freezing temps for the LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 32 IMBYDon't know if this high-power WWA is a good or bad sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 lol. What are we cooking? A couple of local PWS's warmer than me right now. Amazing. laf.png Burgers and fries... felt good to get out for a bit Warming stopped for now, starting to drop a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Burgers and fries... felt good to get out for a bit Mmmm, I'll be over soon. Medium rare BTW. Temp still ticking up here, but noticed the radar is perking up a bit. Still too dry though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky333 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Hi everyone new guy here in Bryan Ohio thats the NW corner of the state near Indiana and Mich its 29 here now and looking forward to a snowy mess tonight and tomorrow so I can earn some OT plowing snow. Love the site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Hi everyone new guy here in Bryan Ohio thats the NW corner of the state near Indiana and Mich its 29 here now and looking forward to a snowy mess tonight and tomorrow so I can earn some OT plowing snow. Love the site! welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iu2001grad Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Some of the local (IND) mets on twitter (BAM being one) is saying that this rise in temp is expected and then will drop to 31 when the precip arrives. I tend to trust you all more than the locals. What do you think/see? I live in between 70 and 74 on the west side of Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Light rain being reported at Champaign, IL and Lincoln, IL. No sites reporting snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 32 here in the ville with 32 supposed to be the max temp today. I'm thinking we may end up with between .2 and .3" of ice before all this is said and done unless WAA suprises everyone. Tonight will be interesting as I watch the Colts game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Some of the local (IND) mets on twitter (BAM being one) is saying that this rise in temp is expected and then will drop to 31 when the precip arrives. I tend to trust you all more than the locals. What do you think/see? I live in between 70 and 74 on the west side of Indy. I think that's right. There's a decent temperature/dewpoint spread right now, so temps should cool as precip arrives. As to what p-type, difficult to tell...but freezing rain and sleet is a good bet in your hood. Also, cold ground temps will probably have something to say as well, even if temps eventually get to a shade or two above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 12Z models Ice Maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iu2001grad Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 So, why are some of the LAF crew worried about rain? I don't understand this complex of a system so just curious I think that's right. There's a decent temperature/dewpoint spread right now, so temps should cool as precip arrives. As to what p-type, difficult to tell...but freezing rain and sleet is a good bet in your hood. Also, cold ground temps will probably have something to say as well, even if temps eventually get to a shade or two above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 So, why are some of the LAF crew worried about rain? I don't understand this complex of a system so just curious It's really only me and my pessimistic LAF view. Pay no attention to MBY bias. I'm an idiot. It is a rather complex system though. Tough on people who do it for a living. Still, plan on some kind of wintry cocktail later today. Might not be pretty for awhile tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 drip drip drip…whole lotta melt'n goin on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Spitting something here right now. Radars starting to blossom. EDIT: yep...it's s**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Spitting something here right now. Radars starting to blossom. EDIT: yep...it's s**** When I was posting those ice maps a while ago I looked at the s***t maps and others, LAF looks to get a lot of s***t and then maybe an inch or 2 of snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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