Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Some disagreement on the magnitude of this one but at least some potential for a moderate event, running the gamut from snow to sleet to freezing rain from north to south. High pressure will be moving off the east coast, leading to broad southerly return flow later this weekend. This look is normally not the best for freezing rain (at least anything significant) given the lack of reinforcing cold/dry low level flow, but given the very cold airmass preceding it, it appears it may be tough to completely scour out the residual cold airmass. Will have to watch for a band of meaningful ice somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Farther north, a swath of snow appears possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Should be noted that the GGEM seemingly has a more classic/favorable look for ice as it's quicker to reestablish high pressure in the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 buckeye special, wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Feeling somewhat good about not getting whiffed to the south. Other than that, details up in the air. Even if it's not a big ice producer, it should be an efficient one. Even if the synoptic setup is not the most favorable, it has problems written all over it given how cold it's been (and will be in the next couple days) and that it will not really warm up anywhere close to freezing until it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 :whistle: :whistle: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 buckeye special, wagons southSeems to be the trend with all these events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Seems to be the trend with all these events this year. Models will probably find some way to screw this up lol, but it seems like a fairly straightforward setup. Basically just low amplitude wave(s) moving through the flow. One thing to watch for is how quickly the high pressure moves into the northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Fellow LAF'er started the thread, so that means only one thing. Prepare for s****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Fellow LAF'er started the thread, so that means only one thing. Prepare for s****. 00z NAM is decent. Just gotta hold it for 12 more cycles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 :whistle: :whistle: Wagonscrashed.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 00z NAM is decent. Just gotta hold it for 12 more cycles or so. Looks like the 12z GGEM. I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Seems to be the trend with all these events this year. ??? we're sitting at 7.9"....we hardly are winning the game here. It hasn't been that the storms are staying in tact and shifting south, it's that they're morphing into weak hot messes, which does nothing for no one. As far as Monday, I wouldn't for a second count out anyone in the subforum. I could see HP modeling stronger and pushing this south, I could equally see a stronger solution and it going north. Best thing for the wagons to do is circle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ??? we're sitting at 7.9"....we hardly are winning the game here. It hasn't been that the storms are staying in tact and shifting south, it's that they're morphing into weak hot messes, which does nothing for no one. As far as Monday, I wouldn't for a second count out anyone in the subforum. I could see HP modeling stronger and pushing this south, I could equally see a stronger solution and it going north. Best thing for the wagons to do is circle Not at all true, exemplified by the two previous clippers. They by no means fell apart--and they both shifted south over time. Perhaps the other systems turned into weaker systems as we got to crunch time, but because of that they've also ended up south of guidance. And I don't have that much snow either buddy. Take your 7.9 and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Should make for some good times trying to fly out of IND on Monday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 ok, if you want to talk wagon direction....it looks like the ggem and euro went wagons north a bit. It's a weird set up...HP coming in from the NW and HP southeast of us....one battling the other. It looks like if anyone does well, it'll be a narrow band along and north of the sleet edge. I'm thinking right now, (snow-wise), winner is in a line from say Indy thru Youngstown OH. Here in CMH area it's mostly slop over to light rain. All in all another hot mess in the making where finding the low pressure system is like a game of waldo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 We have had a few south trending storms for sure, but this isnt 2007-08 anymore (where NW trend was imminent with anything and everything). At this point its anyones game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 We have had a few south trending storms for sure, but this isnt 2007-08 anymore (where NW trend was imminent with anything and everything). At this point its anyones game. true, there was no such thing as a southeast trend before 2008. You pretty much knew if you were bulls-eyed more than 48 hours out from a storm coming up from the south, you were screwed...and if you were a bit too far north of where it was modeled, it was jackpot. I'd say we've moved into a period now in the last few years where the southern/sheared trend now rules the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 true, there was no such thing as a southeast trend before 2008. You pretty much knew if you were bulls-eyed more than 48 hours out from a storm coming up from the south, you were screwed...and if you were a bit too far north of where it was modeled, it was jackpot. I'd say we've moved into a period now in the last few years where the southern/sheared trend now rules the day. Exactly. Its also important to remember that these days the south/sheared trend isnt nearly as much money in the bank as the NW trend was then. Look at last winter. All it did was snow, some and some storms went further north than expected, some further south. This winter hasnt been too active so the events have been more magnified, but its kind of silly to think that every event will bust, etc. It would just be nice to have some sort of confident consensus 24-36 hours out and have it end up verifying, as last nights clipper did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 IND is going to have p-type issues (LAF too most likely)...so it won't be all snow. Doesn't look like a ton of QPF right now, but cold ground and enough precipitation with temps below freezing will makes things a little tricky. Colts play at 4:40pm on Sunday...so those that venture out to watch the game may have an interesting trip home. Add a little of this and it could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 QPFs are looking more juicy through southern and central Indiana up through central Ohio at .50+ per the GFS...fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 ok, if you want to talk wagon direction....it looks like the ggem and euro went wagons north a bit. It's a weird set up...HP coming in from the NW and HP southeast of us....one battling the other. It looks like if anyone does well, it'll be a narrow band along and north of the sleet edge. I'm thinking right now, (snow-wise), winner is in a line from say Indy thru Youngstown OH. Here in CMH area it's mostly slop over to light rain. All in all another hot mess in the making where finding the low pressure system is like a game of waldo. I'd put the max snow band farther north...like through LAF or even north. Could envision 3-5" or something like that in that band...a very nice snow by this winter's standards lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 As mentioned earlier, this is not necessarily your typical look for freezing rain with the lack of some type of northerly or easterly flow in the low levels. Here's a series of forecast soundings from IND to illustrate...this is the NAM and placement varies a bit on models but you get the idea Surface warms around freezing but there shouldn't be much wasted in the ice areas given the light rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z GGEM remaining on the bullish side. A strip of 6+ verbatim N IN/N OH/far SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z Euro and other models less bullish with QPF. This one smells like a 1-2" of snow, 0.10-0.20" of s**** kind of deal for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z Euro and other models less bullish with QPF. This one smells like a 1-2" of snow, 0.10-0.20" of s**** kind of deal for LAF. Euro stay cold enough for all snow for us (or at least keep 850's below 0C)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Maybe the GGEM wins another, but I have my doubts. Plus this map from the 12z run at 66 hours is weird. Don't think I've ever seen a bubble of above freezing temps with below freezing temps north and south...all the while its precipitating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Maybe the GGEM wins another, but I have my doubts. Plus this map from the 12z run at 66 hours is weird. Don't think I've ever seen a bubble of above freezing temps with below freezing temps north and south...all the while its precipitating. cmc_t2m_indy_12.png cmc_pr6_slp_t850_indy_12.png haha, that does look pretty strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Euro stay cold enough for all snow for us (or at least keep 850's below 0C)? We stay below 0˚C on all of the 6 hour panels. Gets close though...0˚ line touches the southern line of the county briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 We stay below 0˚C on all of the 6 hour panels. Gets close though...0˚ line touches the southern line of the county briefly. 3 hour increments on Wunderground seem to show the same thing. Too close for comfort and that assumes that there isn't some warmer layer in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 .7 in my hourly .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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