Blizz Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 00z GGEM is .5"-.7" of ice if im reading this right NW of the city... Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I cant find anywhere the ggem is out already. Hope wrong tho: Ukmet is warm: its Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 GGEM is icy but goes warm at 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Heres what im looking at for GGEM... Continues FRZR further NW, but Hr 66 city should warm above 32 but not before around .3" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 0z ECM much warmer, initial icing than warms to Blue Mountain. No ice storm with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 0z ECM much warmer, initial icing than warms to Blue Mountain. No ice storm with this one. Nothing scientific about my reasoning with this one, just a gut feeling that the warmer scenarios being portrayed my be closer to correct than the icy ones. I know we've had our share of major ice storms in various locations from time to time, but from what I remember over the span of my 47 years on this earth, many times these ice threats DON'T play out as modeled and we somehow warm to just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 We have just about dodged a major ice event for Monday. Most guidance now warms the area above freezing after only a brief period of sleet/fzra. LV still in trouble tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 We have just about dodged a major ice event for Monday. Most guidance now warms the area above freezing after only a brief period of sleet/fzra. LV still in trouble tho. I'm guessing northern Berks is in the same category? Just going off of precip maps the 6z gfs and para looked a touch cooler. Old gfs barely gets the rain/snow line nw of Philly, if I'm looking at it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z ECM has gone volcanic for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Canadian holds with an ice storm N&W burbs Monday quite different than ECM Judging by the ECM's poor performance this winter i don't know what to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Ralph - I don't believe we escape....if if the surface wre to warm slightly above freezing there will continue to be ZR due the cold surfaces. We are now at 5 days and after tomorrow could be 6 days below freezing in a row. Looks like troublesome week for school administrators on whether to delay or close - potentially 3 morning commutes will be impacted in the NW Philly burbs Wxsim has light IP arriving by 4am Monday temp 24.9 a mix of IP/ZR continuing through 2pm temp does rise to a high of 32.8 at 3pm by which time 0.31" of precip has fallen. Snow then arrives at 5am Wednesday morning with 1-1.5" of snow accumulating before tapering off by 10am. The IP/ZR arrive again in time for Thursday rush hour..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Canadian holds with an ice storm N&W burbs Monday quite different than ECM Judging by the ECM's poor performance this winter i don't know what to believe. It is too warm at the surface, the nam's crazy warm idea makes sense since it has the robust surface low, I don't see that on the Euro, so with a light SW wind where is all this warming coming from? This is another event I'm going to rely heavily on the rgem's Ptype inside 30 hours although it's had a warm bias this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z ECM has gone volcanic for Monday All I have to say is LOL...volcanic love it!! Thinking here in Media IP brief to ZR.20-.27 icing screams 2 hour delay at least and possibly closed pending those fine details that are tricky to nail down. I'm sure the warming comes for us down here for sure by say 11am or so but I side with Paul 6 days of below freezing on all surfaces and ocean water temps down to 35 to 37 cold right at the surface will be stubborn especially Chester Bucks Mont Co points north and west..the models won't see this volcanic or not at least at the onset lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 All I have to say is LOL...volcanic love it!! Thinking here in Media IP brief to ZR .1 to .2 icing screams 2 hour delay for schools I'm sure the warming comes for us down here for sure but I side with Paul 6 days of below freezing on all surfaces and ocean water temps down to 35 to 37 cold right at the surface will be stubborn especially Chester Bucks Mont Co points north and west..the models won't see this volcanic or not at least at the onset lol Yeah the little ice angel on my shoulder keeps whispering you know how many of these work out when cold hangs tough. I am leaning on 31-32f most of event initial bad icing on surfaces and minor icing the remainder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Wxsim has increased the ice threat for Monday with now up to 0.49" falling with temps no higher than 32.2 before it tapers off in the evening. Currently clear skies and a crisp 8.6 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Wxsim has increased the ice threat for Monday with now up to 0.49" falling with temps no higher than 32.2 before it tapers off in the evening. Currently clear skies and a crisp 8.6 degrees Ugh. I wish I didn't salt roads. I hate ice Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Wxsim has increased the ice threat for Monday with now up to 0.49" falling with temps no higher than 32.2 before it tapers off in the evening. Currently clear skies and a crisp 8.6 degrees Hey Paul is that for NW Chester County or any areas north and west of I-95? Currently 11 here in Media Delaware County clear skies crisp with a 1.8" snowpack in my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Hi Kevin That is specifically for my backyard based on the Wxsim software... Paul Hey Paul is that for NW Chester County or any areas north and west of I-95? Currently 11 here in Media Delaware County clear skies crisp with a 1.8" snowpack in my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County shows IP/ZR arriving by 4am with 0.19" falling as ZR before temps rise just above freezing around 1pm....temps then will slowly fall back below freezing late in the day with a few more hours of ZR/ZR- before ending around midnight - total precip at 0.31" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Paul models have really backed off on precip amounts. We seem to have really dodged a bullet with this though the morning commute is going to be bad in some parts prior to the flip over to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 If it's even 0.15" that is way too much....don't think we will dodge the bullet unfortunately....hopefully models trend even drier and of course warm the surface much faster!! Paul models have really backed off on precip amounts. We seem to have really dodged a bullet with this though the morning commute is going to be bad in some parts prior to the flip over to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Wxsim with 12z data increases the ice threat and the amount of precipitation for my area of NW Chester County Pa. Breakdown Lite IP arrives around 4am temp at 23.9 ZR at 7am temp 25.8 ZR at 10 am temp 29.7 with 0.15" w.e. so far ZR at 1pm temp 31.9 with 0.35" w.e. so far temps get just above freezing to 32.9 by 130pm and then drop back to near or just above freezing before tapering off by 9pm - total precip now up to 0.52" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 11, 2015 Author Share Posted January 11, 2015 We'll just go and put the obs in this thread too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Wxsim for NW Chesco continues to paint an even worse picture for the area on Monday here is the breakdown IP arrives by 4am temp 25.0 9am - mix of IP/ZR temp at 27.4 12pm ZR temp up to 30.6 (0.24" of frozen has fallen) Brief above freezing between 130p and 2:00p before temps start falling again ZR continues before mixing with IP and then light snow before ending by 4am on Tuesday Total precip 0.57" with most falling with temps below freezing at the surface....ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Really don't see much for Philly S/E...local burbs maybe sidewalks/cars a bit slick but roads for the most part fine. Further N/W....a bit more but nothing crippling. 32.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Hope you are right.....maybe the 0z run will increase the surface warming a tad...... Really don't see much for Philly S/E...local burbs maybe sidewalks/cars a bit slick but roads for the most part fine. Further N/W....a bit more but nothing crippling. 32.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 High clouds here in Media Delaware County right along The Blue Route 476 33 humidity 52% dewpoint 16 ground cold whatever melted is now frozen and was at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Up a degree to 34 here now cloudy dewpoint 16 humidity 53% light south-southeast wind 4mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 30f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Below freezing in all of bucks now. EPAWA went pretty bold. Not too much talk about this but if the cold hangs on longer, it is gonna get pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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