famartin Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Signal for a system is there... cold air not as certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 18z came in a little colder for the overrruning system vs 12z earlier on the GFS. We'll see what 00z shows. Euro looked nice earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 18z came in a little colder for the overrruning system vs 12z earlier on the GFS. We'll see what 00z shows. Euro looked nice earlier today. 18Z GFS was a classic ice sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0Z GFS looks borderline at first glance but I really need to see soundings here to determine what's happening with the thermal profiles near and just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0Z GFS looks borderline at first glance but I really need to see soundings here to determine what's happening with the thermal profiles near and just above the surface. PA ice with NJ as rain. This run was to flat and progressive particularly with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 PA ice with NJ as rain. This run was to flat and progressive particularly with the second wave. Are you suggesting the typical GFS bias is in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Are you suggesting the typical GFS bias is in play? Yeah, that mainly was with reference to mid-week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Im kind of surprised to see the gfs picking up on the deep cold at this range. Usually it is the first to scour out any low level cold but instead it is seeing some caa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0z ECM dry north of the Mason Dixon line now Monday Both GFS north and euro goes south, frustrating winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0z ECM dry north of the Mason Dixon line now Monday Both GFS north and euro goes south, frustrating winter Euro gave us a good hit for the coastal later next week. 6"+ for many.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I think its one storm or the other....likely not both. Storm 1 could push the baroclinic zone south for later in the week keeping the coastal confined to the southeast and possibly mid Atlantic OR storm 1 stays flat and keeps the baroclinic zone and confluence in a more favorable spot for storm 2 to come north. I suppose theoretically we could get hit by both but past history says its either or. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looking at first glance that the gfs is coming in warmer for Monday. I cant tell off of the maps alone but im not even sure that any of the precip in Southeast PA is even frozen. Edit: 10m temps are at or below freezing for first part of overunning wave. Interior still has icing signal. It would be a real kick in the junk to have a cold rain for most of system 1 then have system 2 miss to the south...just saying. Bring on the ggem and euro (and ukmet)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ECM comes north GFS like on Monday. Flip flop flip flop Tuesday high pressure over Buffalo lol everything suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ECM comes north GFS like on Monday. Flip flop flip flop Tuesday high pressure over Buffalo lol everything suppressed Big difference though....the higher resolution euro does not warm the bl like the gfs. So the gfs is essentially on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro gave us a good hit for the coastal later next week. 6"+ for many. Sent from my iPhone It didn't look that good to me, the change from rain/ice to snow probably is resulting in overdone snow on the various sites out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well at least the EC is no longer suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 18z new GFS and old vacuum tube GFS insist we waste our wintry weather window next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 0Z GFS is a sleet event for SE PA at first glance and a fairly quick mover: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 PGFS is mostly a cold rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 A bit out of its range but the higher resolution NAM is warming the bl and turning any frozen over to rain in SEPA. Solution looks suspect however with a separate low forming and hugging the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Trend is clearly to warm the bl. GFS now flips extreme SEPA to rain for a period after frozen then ends briefly as snow....maybe the NAM isn't that far off from the right general idea: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 PGFS is holding its ground with mainly rain after a little frozen. Might end briefly as a mix. Models (GFS/NAM) caving to the PGFS?: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Monday has a N&W burbs/Lehigh valley ice storm written all over it. Almost like last January ice event displaced 25 miles northwest. Hope it fails. * make that 2/5 looking at records Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z ECM around .4" frozen ZR/IP far N&W burbs Lehigh Valley significant ice threat Monday. Snow confined to north of I78 and at that only 1" Time to tune up the generators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Do we see the Reading area as borderline between rain and ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 12z ECM around .4" frozen ZR/IP far N&W burbs Lehigh Valley significant ice threat Monday. Snow confined to north of I78 and at that only 1" Time to tune up the generators Not what I want to hear as I'm in a precarious spot if it does turn into a major ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Im in Warminster and im nervous. Traditionally in these situations we get nailed hard. Hoping for the best but not looking good for parts of the area on guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 We know how these things go the cold hangs tough, not to mention no east flow to bring warmth off the oceans. With some luck it will be 30-32 so ice accrual will be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 And the sun angle will also help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 0z ancient GFS is ice ice baby N&W of Philly. New and improved GFS punches in enough warmth to avoid significant ice after brief onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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