IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Both the 12z NAM and 12z RGEM give some accumulating snows to the area on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It looks like a squall line with added juice. These can drop an inch or two rapidly as they pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 This is why you look to get the pattern in place first, then small events pop up here and there once its established. Happens every snow season. I love nickel and dime events in succession, not everything can be a blockbuster. Looks like a good chance at a solid inch across the area for some more mood snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Perhaps our luck is starting to change for the better. Next week is starting to get interesting. Right now, we just got to take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 The old 12z GFS is not on board for anything more than a few scattered flurries. Waiting on the PGFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Wouldn't this one likely trend a bit south like yesterday's clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Wouldn't this one likely trend a bit south like yesterday's clipper? For one this isn't a clipper. It's a true arctic front with good moisture rather than something that's going to die out and then redevelop offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 For one this isn't a clipper. It's a true arctic front with good moisture rather than something that's going to die out and then redevelop offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z PGFS has some activity but it's not like the NAM or the RGEM. Makes sense given the NAM and RGEM higher resolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Yeah I don't agree with that. For me you need a defined area of low pressure with an Alberta Clipper, something that I don't see with this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 For one this isn't a clipper. It's a true arctic front with good moisture rather than something that's going to die out and then redevelop offshore.Well a clipper is passing to our north though. This is essentially "kicking down" the jet stream and keeping the cold air in place.....kind of like rolling a ball on a big elastic band. After this clipper has passed us by completely to the north, the jet stream stars to shift back north and temps moderate this weekend (elastic pulls itself back) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nam looks good for a intense squall line tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nam looks good for a intense squall line tomorrow afternoon Yeah we'll see if it holds this solution. (I know you mean for Friday though, not tomorrow lol)....right now, it puts down a very quick 1-2" for most and even 3" or so for NW NJ. Snowfall rates of 2-3"/hour. As we know, if the NAM is good at something, it's giving the signal for strong banding. Where it will happen is another story.....but looks nice right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nws says the front on Friday has very limited moisture. And the chance of snow showers will be limited With the best chance n&w of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nws says the front on Friday has very limited moisture. And the chance of snow showers will be limited With the best chance n&w of the metro. They are probably humping the globals. Personally I think the higher res models such as the RGEM/NAM have better skill in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 The nam is overdone with qpf every system so why buy into it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 RGEM Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 PARA FRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 The 06z RGEM still hits the area pretty well tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 So here's how it stands for some of the models tmrw : GFS : 0" GFS PARA : coating to 1" NJ, 1-2" LI NAM : 6z coating to 1", new 12z 0" RGEM : 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 No change by the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 No change by the RGEM That's incredible.....I've never seen two consecutive model runs look nearly IDENTICAL in regards to the placement of the moisture on the map!! The darker blue are in pretty much the same exact locations. At first I assumed you accidentally posted the same model run as before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 That's a burst of heavy snow on the RGEM. This is the type of setup where someone picks up over an inch in under an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Whats the approximate start time for this? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Whats the approximate start time for this? Rossi Mid-morning, out by early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 With Surface temps in the teens & 850s in the teens I can see someone in the interior picking up 2-3" if the RGEM were to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 With Surface temps in the teens & 850s in the teens I can see someone in the interior picking up 2-3" if the RGEM were to verify I agree. You guys could pick up a quick few inches if the RGEM were correct. Beware of the RGEM though. It wasn't good with the last small event earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 With Surface temps in the teens & 850s in the teens I can see someone in the interior picking up 2-3" if the RGEM were to verify Yeah the RGEM would be a quick hitting 1-3" event, but it's really by itself on this one. Even the normally overdone Euro WxBell maps have a coating at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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