TugHillMatt Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Really looking forward to this event, as I live right by Lake Michigan on the lines of Muskegon and Ottawa counties. Currently under a Winter Storm Warning and calling for 12 to 15 inches of snow for us by Friday with 40 mph wind gusts. All this on top of the 14 inches of snow I currently have on the ground. Awesome winter week here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 21z SREF plumes have a mean of 5.1" at DTW (through 12z Friday). It's been slowly but steadily increasing... There's one member that has about 1.8" of snow (the rest are above 3"), but there's a fair number of members with amounts higher than 5.1" (no higher than 7"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0z GEM also stays on the wetter side with .25" liquid for most of the LOT CWA and .30" for Geos/Alek/lakeside counties Looks like about .15" for LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Here in MN upstream from most of you, the models are all over the place, GFS/PGFS/NAM and the Rap keep the heavier snowfall just NE of MSP. However the GEM/RegGem/HRRR all show heavier snow south of MSP as well. Looking at the 850 maps it looks like there is fairly good agreement in the placement of the surface to h85 troughs. I really don't see any reason why the later group of models is not to be believed, therefore I am leaning to the wetter more aggressive side of things. This holds true at H85 especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Here in MN upstream from most of you, the models are all over the place, GFS/PGFS/NAM and the Rap keep the heavier snowfall just NE of MSP. However the GEM/RegGem/HRRR all show heavier snow south of MSP as well. Looking at the 850 maps it looks like there is fairly good agreement in the placement of the surface to h85 troughs. I really don't see any reason why the later group of models is not to be believed, therefore I am leaning to the wetter more aggressive side of things. This holds true at H85 especially. Perhaps as Hoosier pointed out, it could be due to how the models are handling low-level dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro still probably the skimpiest of all the models, with the 0.1 line barely making it to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro still probably the skimpiest of all the models, with the 0.1 line barely making it to Chicago. Euro was too dry with the last clipper, not saying it means much but the Euro does tend to trim the QPF with clippers unrealistically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Perhaps as Hoosier pointed out, it could be due to how the models are handling low-level dry air. true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 21z SREF plumes have a mean of 5.1" at DTW (through 12z Friday). It's been slowly but steadily increasing... There's one member that has about 1.8" of snow (the rest are above 3"), but there's a fair number of members with amounts higher than 5.1" (no higher than 7"). This could be nasty as the cold front moves through if those winds materialize from the blowing snow alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 6z NAM going towards the GEM/RGEM with .20"+ for most of the LOT CWA except far south and 3-4" for that area with a touch more on the WI side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 6z NAM going towards the GEM/RGEM with .20"+ for most of the LOT CWA except far south and 3-4" for that area with a touch more on the WI side Looks like a nice win for the GEM model suite. Composite returns are showing snow aloft just west of MSP, this will only help saturate the column before the main snows get here. The HRRR and the HOPWRF are in nice agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like a near squall line followed by a period of lighter snows. Winds looking more impressive than I had thought. 1-2 still works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 DTX going 2-4" with blowing and drifting snow. Sounds reasonable. Should be a stormy evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z meso analysis making me think the stronger/southern guidance is doing better right now, at least relative to what the 6z Americans were selling at this time. Duration will be far too short for decent totals but I think we are a lock for at least a short period of real deal winter storm conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12z meso analysis making me think the stronger/southern guidance is doing better right now, at least relative to what the 6z Americans were selling at this time. Duration will be far too short for decent totals but I think we are a lock for at least a short period of real deal winter storm conditions. yeah....may not reach the 3 hour criteria of blizzard conditions....but like you said, certainly an hour or 2 of fairly extreme conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 yep, looks like south is the way to go with this one. Can already tell this thing is drifting in on the south end of guidance in the Dakotas. WAA doing some work though. Should be a decent but quick hit for some. First flakes flying here though column is still a little dry. Hope that squally looking line maintains into LOT. Could be fun for a bit. Going with 1.25" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 NWS APX map look pretty good for us NWL folk. I bet a couple areas squeeze out 12+ depending on whee the heaviest LES bands setup. Should be a good weekend for winter sports if the wind can settle down. Will be some blizzard like conditions around here, schools are already closed today and tomorrow fro much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 yep, looks like south is the way to go with this one. Can already tell this thing is drifting in on the south end of guidance in the Dakotas. WAA doing some work though. Should be a decent but quick hit for some. First flakes flying here though column is still a little dry. Hope that squally looking line maintains into LOT. Could be fun for a bit. Going with 1.25" here. I just realized theres a small area of north central MN (south Duluth-ish) with almost bare ground. Dealing with brutal cold day in and day out with brown ground....yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 not sure how it translates to the surface downstream but 12z NAM initializing another tick stronger/south than what 6z was selling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 northern IL and southern Wisco looking quite wet through 21Z on the 12Z NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 northern IL and southern Wisco looking quite wet through 21Z on the 12Z NAM.... initialized stronger than 6z with a bit more robust WAA at 850 but was definitely drier at 700 and it is keeping amounts in check still going to show 1-3 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I just realized theres a small area of north central MN (south Duluth-ish) with almost bare ground. Dealing with brutal cold day in and day out with brown ground....yikes. Almost no snow on the ground north and SW of the TC. Crappy winter in some parts for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 not sure if it means anything, but the sref precip (.1 area), is about the furthest north it's been in the last few runs. Granted, down here in the I-70 southlands it's a fight about whether we can scratch and claw our way to a rgem-esque inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Flake size so far is actually quite good FWIW. Temps aloft certainly aren't as cold as they were on Monday, so that's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 initialized stronger than 6z with a bit more robust WAA at 850 but was definitely drier at 700 and it is keeping amounts in check still going to show 1-3 for the area yeah....fast puppy...the 6-hr QPF maps are deceiving...still a nice hit compared to expectations a few days ago...and it's keeping up the strength. expectations are extremely tempered on the snowfall totals with this one...wind/snow combo looks most intriguing edit....it still manages to spit out at least .2 QPF around parts of LOT though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 yeah....fast puppy...the 6-hr QPF maps are deceiving...still a nice hit compared to expectations a few days ago...and it's keeping up the strength. expectations are extremely tempered on the snowfall totals with this one...wind/snow combo looks most intriguing at this point it looks like the window of snow/wind will only be about half an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Might be a little overdone, and a little too "smoothed out"...but here's the 12z NAM 18 hour total snowfall (thru 6z 1/9). Light blue starts the 3" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 at this point it looks like the window of snow/wind will only be about half an hour true for snowfall and winds in congruence....but certainly plenty of hours to still blow around a few inches of freshly fallen fluff you catch the sunrise on the lake this morning? Looked pretty sweet from out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 12Z HRRR ... pretty treacherous in pockets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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