Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We will see if it continues down the road but the 0z NAM is already stronger and wetter at 6hr as the sfc low enters the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yep, NAM coming in stronger and farther south with the precip so far on the 0z run compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 We will see if it continues down the road but the 0z NAM is already stronger and wetter at 6hr as the sfc low enters the CONUS Not like it's gonna mix down but 00z NAM actually gets 850 mb winds up around 75 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yep. South, stronger and wetter here. Nothing like the RGEM but 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yep. South, stronger and wetter here. Nothing like the RGEM but 1-2" Yup, easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yup, easy. Actually has 2-3" for northeast IL and 3" for downtown Chicago/Lakeside. Geos turned the magnet back on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Definitely some new winners and losers on that NAM run... Much drier here into SW Ontario (where it had consistently showed 4"+ amounts), by as much as a couple inches... Hopefully it's a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0z 4km NAM pretty good too looking more like the RGEM but not quite there. .10"-.25" liquid over a good portion of the Chicago area with the bullseye along/north of I-88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Definitely some new winners and losers on that NAM run... Much drier here into SW Ontario (where it had consistently showed 4"+ amounts), by as much as a couple inches... Hopefully it's a fluke. Never mind. I only looked at it through 27hr by mistake. It's still a solid 3-4", with an convergence band of 4"+ along the MI/OH/IN border from Lake Michigan to Toledo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 here come the winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0z 4km NAM pretty good too looking more like the RGEM but not quite there. .10"-.25" liquid over a good portion of the Chicago area with the bullseye along/north of I-88 even brings cyclone into the game pretty decently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah check out the HRRR on our COD site. Has sfc wind gusts to 57kts at the end of run west of DSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 RGEM should basically hold serve by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 21Z SREF is all over the place....but a tight cluster around 1.5 inches and a 1.25 mean @JOT.... ORD is also all over the place...mean at 1.75 and a cluster at 2.25 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 RGEM should basically hold serve by the looks of it. introduces some .25 QPF into the chi metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Another thing to enhance lift and snow rates, some pretty steep lapse rates above 500 mb. This is from the 00z NAM at 00Z tomorrow evening near ORD. The earlier runs of the NAM today had over 7C/km lapse rates above 500 mb on BUFKIT, and this looks pretty similar. Things could be rocking pretty good from ~22-02z. If not for the warmer layer from 750-700 mb, that would be an very deep DGZ, but still plenty deep below that down to the surface. The strong winds through the column could hurt things a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Fairly decent pressure falls occurring over the Dakotas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well this is fun. GFS is essentially a shutout here, NAM a little north of .1 and the RGEM a little higher. I was going to come out with a revised prediction but maybe I'll just wait til tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Tight clustering on the SREF locally. Anywhere between 2-4" at YYZ. RGEM agrees and I think its sim radar makes more sense than the WRF at least locally as the SSW flow favours less downsloping off the escarpment. 1.5-2.5" final call for MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 this would be interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Pretty easy to see why there's a discrepancy with the GFS around here. It has trouble saturating the low levels compared to the NAM. Compare the two forecast soundings valid 00z Fri. At this point, with the NAM, 4 km NAM, RGEM not really showing this as an issue (and subjectively, NAM seems to love to pick up on dry layers), I'm inclined to think it's overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 this would be interesting.... USA_GUSTM_sfc_022.gif Will be interesting to watch the HRRR once we get into the range of tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 this would be interesting.... USA_GUSTM_sfc_022.gif FWIW, instantweathermaps.com tends to always overdo the wind gusts on those maps (not sure why). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Will be interesting to watch the HRRR once we get into the range of tomorrow evening hrrrFLT_sfc_gust_014.gif yeah....that's some incredible stuff...the biggest punches are packed in smaller timeslots clearly....but still some breadth to it FWIW, instantweathermaps.com tends to always overdo the wind gusts on those maps (not sure why). yeah very true...but the overall scope of maintaining a decent windy period was the general point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 GFS still looks good here with a widespread ~4". It looking increasingly likely that the higher end of my call will be the common snowfall amount... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Yeah I think might be safe to up my call to 2.5-4.5" locally. With the winds I do think this is going to be a nasty little event. I expect WWAs to come out with tonight's update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Gonna up my call again for here after seeing some of the 00z data. Guess I'll go for about an inch. Gonna be about impossible to measure though with all the blowing snow that will be occurring while it's falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm gonna bite the bullet and go with 1-2" of wind blown snow for LAF. Confidence could be better but not a fan of waiting until zero hour to make a call. Many 21z SREF plumes between about 2/3 of an inch to an inch with only a handful above 1", so that's not a really good sign at this point but I like the RGEM/GGEM persistence and those models would suggest the top end of my range or perhaps just above. OTOH, if saturation is delayed then we're probably looking at the lower end if not lower. We're gonna need sufficient precip as I wouldn't expect to get bailed out by really good ratios in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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