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1/7 - 1/9 Clipper system


SpartyOn

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Definitely some new winners and losers on that NAM run...

 

Much drier here into SW Ontario (where it had consistently showed 4"+ amounts), by as much as a couple inches...

 

Hopefully it's a fluke.

 

Never mind. I only looked at it through 27hr by mistake.

 

It's still a solid 3-4", with an convergence band of 4"+ along the MI/OH/IN border from Lake Michigan to Toledo...

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Another thing to enhance lift and snow rates, some pretty steep lapse rates above 500 mb. This is from the 00z NAM at 00Z tomorrow evening near ORD. The earlier runs of the NAM today had over 7C/km lapse rates above 500 mb on BUFKIT, and this looks pretty similar. Things could be rocking pretty good from ~22-02z.

423eb50427f885ad230df36eabed7e37.jpg

If not for the warmer layer from 750-700 mb, that would be an very deep DGZ, but still plenty deep below that down to the surface. The strong winds through the column could hurt things a bit though.

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Pretty easy to see why there's a discrepancy with the GFS around here.  It has trouble saturating the low levels compared to the NAM.  Compare the two forecast soundings valid 00z Fri.

 

 

post-14-0-22346300-1420689613_thumb.png

 

post-14-0-20711300-1420689625_thumb.png

 

 

At this point, with the NAM, 4 km NAM, RGEM not really showing this as an issue (and subjectively, NAM seems to love to pick up on dry layers), I'm inclined to think it's overdone.

 

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Will be interesting to watch the HRRR once we get into the range of tomorrow evening

 

attachicon.gifhrrrFLT_sfc_gust_014.gif

 

yeah....that's some incredible stuff...the biggest punches are packed in smaller timeslots clearly....but still some breadth to it

 

FWIW, instantweathermaps.com tends to always overdo the wind gusts on those maps (not sure why).

 

yeah very true...but the overall scope of maintaining a decent windy period was the general point

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I'm gonna bite the bullet and go with 1-2" of wind blown snow for LAF.  Confidence could be better but not a fan of waiting until zero hour to make a call. 

 

Many 21z SREF plumes between about 2/3 of an inch to an inch with only a handful above 1", so that's not a really good sign at this point but I like the RGEM/GGEM persistence and those models would suggest the top end of my range or perhaps just above.  OTOH, if saturation is delayed then we're probably looking at the lower end if not lower.  We're gonna need sufficient precip as I wouldn't expect to get bailed out by really good ratios in this setup.

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