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1/7 - 1/9 Clipper system


SpartyOn

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At first it looks like it, yes. But look at this for DPA...at 18z tomorrow it has the look of the previous clipper event with a nice DGZ up top above the warm layer then another below but has that near sfc cold layer like we saw on the 0z DVN raob the other night. 

 

attachicon.gifdpa clipper.gif

But by 0z you have almost a nearly isothermal layer in the heart of the DGZ from about 900mb-600mb

 

attachicon.gifdpa clipper 1.gif

 

Looking at the NAM, it's a little further north, slower with the wave so it hangs onto the warm layer a little longer but collapses it by 3z Friday 

 

 

 

I'm not able to look at BUFKIT now.  How well does the lift line up in the growth zone?

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Are models moving a touch south and a bit wetter? Haven't paid much attention to models  and there's no SL2 posting to keep us folks on the southern fringes hopeful B)

 

IWXwx Trademark stat padder brewing..  With the cold temps, timing, and wind in the aftermath it has the ingredients for a greasy mess on the roads.

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I would say general 1-2 is a good call. Will most likely fall somewhere closer to the 1, but still about 100% more than I had expected waking up this morning.

That's what we're generally going with. Will be interesting to see if the Canadian models hold steady with the higher qpf with the 00z runs (and 18z for the RGEM).

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SREF mean at YYZ is 3.8" but even the lowest member still has 1.6". Usually there's a cluster of NMN members that have virtually nothing. Raises my confidence that we're at least going to get a shovellable snow.

 

EC is calling for 1-1.5" tomorrow night. Temperatures will be around 14-17F during the heaviest rates, making way for some good ratios. 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html

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EC is calling for 1-1.5" tomorrow night. Temperatures will be around 14-17F during the heaviest rates, making way for some good ratios. 

 

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-143_metric_e.html

 

Sfc temps really don't have much affect on ratios, but COBB technique off the 12z NAM was showing 13/14:1 ratios with the clipper.

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you can only go up when you start at zero

 

looks like i'll be busting low on my .00001" call

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