RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Have a feeling this is going to over perform for a lot of us, including the Chicago area. Thinking an inch is definitely possible for us, which isn't saying much, but it still an over performer.Was thinking the same thing looking at the 12z guidance coming in.Could be more like 1-2" if the 12z OP GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Monster band w/ Lake Superior conx over us all morning. At least 5"+ the last few hours:)) http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=APX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Was thinking the same thing looking at the 12z guidance coming in. Could be more like 1-2" if the 12z OP GFS is right. Especially along the lake front. Some serious lake enhancement being modeled on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Especially along the lake front. Some serious lake enhancement being modeled on the GFS.What lake enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 What lake enhancement?Not for us. Southwestern Michigan.Edit: Although also think we can see some in north central Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 wrong shore edit: ninjad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z goofus and the nam sisters bringing the 0.1" line through most of Chicago now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Especially along the lake front. Some serious lake enhancement being modeled on the GFS.Although we had lake enhancement in an atypical setup on Sunday, I don't think it's lake enhancement tomorrow with southwest winds up to 850 mb. The qpf enhancement over northeast IL occurs due to better lift due to PVA and WAA/fgen as better forcing arrives with the upper wave.Edit: whoops, misunderstood. you're right, there's definitely gonna be lake enhancement into sw lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Oh Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 gonna go with 3-5" of very high ratio snow. Add 15-25mph winds and to me that's a worthy event... with wind a factor, likely a headline event... especially tacking on a few inches at the end of lake snow. congrats nicky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 People complain about the Canadian, but it can be very good handling energy coming out of the Arctic. The model has a much higher resolution in the high latitudes than it does over the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 People complain about the Canadian, but it can be very good handling energy coming out of the Arctic. The model has a much higher resolution in the high latitudes than it does over the conus. Interesting point. If the higher qpf amounts from the Canadian guidance is correct, we have a problem on our hands with the snow coming in right during the pm commute tomorrow in the Chicago area. Even the ~1-2" amounts on other guidance would be bad enough, plus winds gusting over 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 the Geos revenge clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I wasn't complaining about the RGEM, just warming up their national anthem. But yeah, it's not a throw-away model usually. But interesting how both Canadian guidance is fairly bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z GGEM might be a smidgen juicier. Has a bullseye over wisconsinwx's head at 36 hours. Of course, that's going off the b/w maps right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 GGEM was all over having precip farther south for days, so kudos if it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Assuming 10:1 ratios: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Interesting point. If the higher qpf amounts from the Canadian guidance is correct, we have a problem on our hands with the snow coming in right during the pm commute tomorrow in the Chicago area. Even the ~1-2" amounts on other guidance would be bad enough, plus winds gusting over 30 mph. Yeah, that's about as high impact of a 1-2" as possible considering the timing and how cold it is leading into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Assuming 10:1 ratios: GEM.png Just looked at the COBB data based off the buffkit for my area, NAM says almost 20:1 ratios and GFS is 16:1, I think this will probably be close to a 15:1 ratio when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 This is incredibly telling: SREF dProg/dt for ORD. I'm starting to get more excited about this event. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2_means.php?YMD=20150107&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=5&mLAT=39.287283125967924&mLON=-91.54193557128906&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Interesting point. If the higher qpf amounts from the Canadian guidance is correct, we have a problem on our hands with the snow coming in right during the pm commute tomorrow in the Chicago area. Even the ~1-2" amounts on other guidance would be bad enough, plus winds gusting over 30 mph. yeah....most roads are dicey at best today (and likely through tomorrow) with ground temps and blowing snow (nothing horrible....but dicey). Throw and inch or 2 on top of the frozen surfaces with the winds and it could end up being one of these low snow-total / higher impact type events given timing and the above mentioned factors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 This is incredibly telling: SREF dProg/dt for ORD. I'm starting to get more excited about this event. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2_means.php?YMD=20150107&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=ORD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=5&mLAT=39.287283125967924&mLON=-91.54193557128906&mTYP=roadmap good to see SREF tagging along....given the ratio issues with the last system....I would think the more telling thing would be the fact that the QPF keeps rising... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 SREF mean is about 4" for Detroit, with a decent spread between 3-6". The mean would probably be a bit higher if not for the one lone member showing only 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Up to 1.0" for LAF on the 9z SREF. I may have to revise my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 good to see SREF tagging along....given the ratio issues with the last system....I would think the more telling thing would be the fact that the QPF keeps rising... It'll be interesting to see what the offices go with for ratios. Forecast soundings for Chicago indicate a mid level warm layer early on (relatively speaking) which cuts into the DGZ depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Up to 1.0" for LAF on the 9z SREF. I may have to revise my call. I may have to open the possibility to a heavy dusting if trends keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 I use the SREF plumes with caution after being burned before. But there's a nice upward trend here, mean up to just about 2.25". Entire suite between 1 and 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 It'll be interesting to see what the offices go with for ratios. Forecast soundings for Chicago indicate a mid level warm layer early on (relatively speaking) which cuts into the DGZ depth. At first it looks like it, yes. But look at this for DPA...at 18z tomorrow it has the look of the previous clipper event with a nice DGZ up top above the warm layer then another below but has that near sfc cold layer like we saw on the 0z DVN raob the other night. But by 0z you have almost a nearly isothermal layer in the heart of the DGZ from about 900mb-600mb Looking at the NAM, it's a little further north, slower with the wave so it hangs onto the warm layer a little longer but collapses it by 3z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 the Geos revenge clipper . If we can get the forcing into the proper level of the atmosphere where the dendritic growth is. 12z GGEM 12z ggem 48 qpf.png 0.30" - what in the world... Seems a bit too optimistic imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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