deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 I lowered my low to 16 for MCN for Thur am now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 I lowered my low to 16 for MCN for Thur am now Yet KATL keeps raising theirs. The way they word their forecast is irresponsible. Temps are going to fall all day tomorrow, yet they do not mention it in the graphical forecast. The high in Atlanta will occur probably at midnight tonight or early morning, it will not be in the low 40s in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 The forecast line is MY forecast that I have for MCN that I am going with on TV. I made that yesterday, but I don't see anything to change my mind, so thats what I will keep today as well. *If there was a reason to change, that forecast (my) would ALSO change each run set, but I see no reason to update my thinking...hope that helps Thanks for the response. That's what I thought you were doing, and now I see that you have lowered your "own-the-air" forecast after the most recent round of modeling. Now, will it continue to go down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 Ya, I think it won't be much lower than that, IMO..We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 LOL! Funny you started this. I created a spreadsheet that has the 12Z Sunday GFS forecast and comparing that to actual 4 times daily. Here's an image of the spreadsheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 LOL! Funny you started this. I created a spreadsheet that has the 12Z Sunday GFS forecast and comparing that to actual 4 times daily. Here's an image of the spreadsheet. temps_week1_2.jpg WOW! Very nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 New 00z updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 All have been updated except the nam..couldn't find the updated numbers. Earl barker didn't update..anywhere else to get the RAW numbers for the NAM? I updated mine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Hey everyone! I wanted to try something out here. It should help us really learn more about the forecast models this season and how they will handle Arctic air and the cold. We know the models have REALLY struggled at times for the Fall and Winter. I have chosen 9 cities around us, plus MY forecast for Macon for THUR am (~12z) and Thur pm (~18z) I know there could be a degree or 2 +or- because of the fact that the high will come closer to 20z or 21z depending on what time zone. So just remember that ok? I am doing the MON 12z RUNS.....TUE 00z RUNS.....TUE 12z RUNS....WED 00z RUNS..... WED 12z RUNS....THU 00z RUNS... Here are the city's: Memphis, Nashville, Birmingham, Atlanta, Macon, Columbia, GSP, Charlotte, and Raleigh/D The first number will be the FORECASTED low /// and the 2nd number will be the high. ie 9/26 Forecasted low of 9 and a high of 26 12Z Monday Model runs: MEM: NAM: 9/26 GFS: 11/28 Para GFS: 11/30 EURO: 14/31 BNA: NAM: 5/23 GFS: 7/26 Para GFS: 6/27 EURO: 6/29 BHM: NAM: 13/28 GFS: 13/33 Para GFS: 13/35 EURO: 19/34 ATL: NAM: 15/28 GFS: 16/31 Para GFS: 14/34 EURO: 18/34 MCN: NAM: 21/31 GFS: 19/34 Para GFS: 20/34 EURO: 22/36 CAE: NAM: 17/28 GFS: 18/29 Para GFS: 19/30 EURO: 21/32 GSP: NAM: 13/26 GFS: 15/27 Para GFS: 15/30 EURO: 18/31 CLT: NAM: 13/24 GFS: 14/26 Para GFS: 14/31 EURO: 19/31 RDU: NAM: 13/23 GFS: 14/27 Para GFS: 14/27 EURO: 19/30 My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be: 18/33 00Z Tuesday Model runs: MEM: NAM: 8/26 GFS: 11/28 Para GFS: 12/30 EURO: 12/31 BNA: NAM: 4/22 GFS: 7/26 Para GFS: 6/28 EURO: 6/29 BHM: NAM: 12/28 GFS: 13/32 Para GFS: 13/35 EURO: 19/34 ATL: NAM: 13/27 GFS: 16/31 Para GFS: 14/34 EURO: 18/34 MCN: NAM: 19/31 GFS: 19/34 Para GFS: 19/34 EURO: 21/36 CAE: NAM: 17/28 GFS: 17/29 Para GFS: 18/30 EURO: 20/32 GSP: NAM: 12/27 GFS: 15/27 Para GFS: 14/30 EURO: 17/31 CLT: NAM: 12/25 GFS: 14/26 Para GFS: 14/29 EURO: 18/31 RDU: NAM: 13/24 GFS: 14/27 Para GFS: 13/27 EURO: 19/30 My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be: 18/33 12Z Tuesday Model runs: NAM, GFS, and Para updated...Euro updated MEM: NAM: 8/26 GFS: 11/28 Para GFS: 10/28 EURO: 15/31 BNA: NAM: 3/21 GFS: 6/26 Para GFS: 5/28 EURO: 6/30 BHM: NAM: 12/28 GFS: 12/32 Para GFS: 12/3 EURO: 17/34 ATL: NAM: 13/27 GFS: 15/31 Para GFS: 13/33 EURO: 17/32 MCN: NAM: 20/31 GFS: 19/34 Para GFS: 19/34 EURO: 21/35 CAE: NAM: 16/28 GFS: 18/29 Para GFS: 19/30 EURO: 20/32 GSP: NAM: 12/26 GFS: 15/28 Para GFS: 15/30 EURO: 17/31 CLT: NAM: 12/24 GFS: 14/27 Para GFS: 12/29 EURO: 17/30 RDU: NAM: 12/24 GFS: 14/27 Para GFS: 14/28 EURO: 19/29 AVL: NAM: 2/23 GFS: 6/28 Para GFS: 6/ 30 EURO: 5/30 TRI: NAM: 4/22 GFS: 5/28 Para GFS: 6/28 EURO: 6/28 My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be: 16/33 00z Wednesday Model runs: ALL have been updated MEM: NAM: 7/25 GFS: 12/28 Para GFS: 11/29 EURO: 12/31 BNA: NAM: 3/21 GFS: 7/27 Para GFS: 6/28 EURO: 6/29 BHM: NAM: 11/27 GFS: 14/32 Para GFS: 12/34 EURO: 18/34 ATL: NAM: 13/28 GFS: 15/31 Para GFS: 14/34 EURO: 18/34 MCN: NAM: 20/32 GFS: 19/34 Para GFS: 20/35 EURO: 21/35 CAE: NAM: 17/28 GFS: 18/29 Para GFS: 19/28 EURO: 20/32 GSP: NAM: 12/26 GFS: 15/28 Para GFS: 15/31 EURO: 17/31 CLT: NAM: 12/25 GFS: 14/27 Para GFS: 14/30 EURO: 19/29 RDU: NAM: 12/23 GFS: 13/27 Para GFS: 13/27 EURO: 17/29 AVL: NAM: 3/23 GFS: 6/28 Para GFS: 6/ 30 EURO: 5/30 TRI: NAM: 4/23 GFS: 6/29 Para GFS: 7/29 EURO: 7/29 My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be: 16/33 12z Wednesday Model runs: All Updated except (NAM site I get raw # not updated) MEM: NAM: 7/25 GFS: 12/28 Para GFS: 11/29 EURO: 14/30 BNA: NAM: 3/21 GFS: 8/27 Para GFS: 6/28 EURO: 6/29 BHM: NAM: 11/27 GFS: 14/33 Para GFS: 12/34 EURO: 18/34 ATL: NAM: 13/28 GFS: 15/31 Para GFS: 14/34 EURO: 18/33 MCN: NAM: 20/32 GFS: 19/33 Para GFS: 20/35 EURO: 21/35 CAE: NAM: 17/28 GFS: 17/29 Para GFS: 19/31 EURO: 20/32 GSP: NAM: 12/26 GFS: 15/28 Para GFS: 15/32 EURO: 17/31 CLT: NAM: 12/25 GFS: 14/27 Para GFS: 14/30 EURO: 198/30 RDU: NAM: 12/23 GFS: 14/27 Para GFS: 13/27 EURO: 18/29 AVL: NAM: 3/23 GFS: 6/28 Para GFS: 6/ 30 EURO: 6/30 TRI: NAM: 4/23 GFS: 6/29 Para GFS: 6/30 EURO: 6/30 My Forecast for KMCN *That I will use on TV* will be: 17/34 Well, looks like the king (12z Wed run) got it wrong on the low tonight. It's 17 at KATL (airport) now. One down, three to go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Updated for the 00z NAM numbers...last numbers in this challenge...I smell some BUSTS coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Have to say, pretty much all of the models have been very consistent with their forecasted temps for days now. My money is on the para for KATL. 14/34 looks spot on to me. Helps with consistency that most stations keep a breeze up through the night. Helps to keep the UHI at these sites from skewing the area temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Well, looks like the king (12z Wed run) got it wrong on the low tonight. It's 17 at KATL (airport) now. One down, three to go! I believe the Euro still has a known warm bias with 2meter temperatures. I've noticed this is especially the case with these arctic air masses east of the mountains where it was often 5-8 degrees too warm with lows during the outbreaks of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 All FINAL model numbers are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Here's where I'm at with one so far. I plugged in 10 F for 7 AM today, I'm 0.2 off right now and I'll adjust it when I get home. It appears the GFs hasn't handled the Arctic air very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ya, a complete bust in the making around here. Looks like we are going to hit 14 in MCN, not even CLOSE! I figured they would be off, but euro busted by probably 7 degrees, even the NAM did awful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 AVL: NAM: 3/23 GFS: 6/28 Para GFS: 6/ 30 EURO: 5/30 Looks like Avl airport will bottom out at 5oF; models did well with Euro for the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Good deal! That doesn't surprise me. I would think the models would do the best at "elevation" TRI and AVL it should do the best. We shall see later, but sounds like they did good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Some Early numbers: **PRELIM** Looks like MEM: 9 BNA: 4 BHM: 7 or 8 ATL: 10 or 11 *Very impressive for KATL* MCN: 14 or 15 GSP: 9 or 10 CAE: 16 or 17 CLT: 9 RDU: 10 or 11 TRI: 3 AVL: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Thanks Larry, I figured that this would give us a good first look on how the PARA handles the arctic air, a true good wedge and all that good stuff. Where has Lookout been lately? Wishing I was here lol. It's been a rough week or two. I actually didn't see this thread until last night but this is great stuff/great idea. By breaking it down so specifically like this, we really should get a great idea of what to expect in the future. I'd be really interested in seeing this done with winter precipitation events, especially in a case where we are dealing with low dewpoints/evaporational cooling issues since the models always have such a hard time with it. For that matter, even an all liquid system would be interesting so long as we are dealing with significant evaporational cooling and/or temps being held down because of precipitation. Ya, a complete bust in the making around here. Looks like we are going to hit 14 in MCN, not even CLOSE! I figured they would be off, but euro busted by probably 7 degrees, even the NAM did awful! yep. Will be curious to see whether the gfs or nam is more accurate for highs today. The nam used to always be the warmer model in these situations here, in part because I think it recognizes downslope warming more but for today it has consistently been colder than the gfs here. I think part of it today is because winds veer easterly and light and so there is no downslope warming. However, most times the nam is warmer regardless..especially before a precip event. It's always drove me crazy in those marginal winter situations and seeing the nam saying it's going to hit 40 before precip arrives while the gfs is 5 degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Thanks bud! Sorry its been a rough week or two... This might be a good time for Sunday...Thats the biggest reason why I did it, I wanted to see how well they preformed with the Arctic airmass. How would the PARA do with it. And, how will handle evap cooling, because, we will see evap cooling on Sunday, just depends on how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 AVL: NAM: 3/23 GFS: 6/28 Para GFS: 6/ 30 EURO: 5/30 Looks like Avl airport will bottom out at 5oF; models did well with Euro for the win. Correction - KAVL dropped to 4 degrees for the low this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Correction - KAVL dropped to 4 degrees for the low this morning.impressive for were the airport it. Nice to see that location go so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 CLT Official low of 8F. Ties record low for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Models busted high on the temps but busted WAY too low on the DP's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 CLT Official low of 8F. Ties record low for the date. Yeah, Euro busted by 10 degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ya, I think its very safe to say the EURO did AWFUL!!! There are a few stations that it did good, but most was a joke. Hell, even the NAM did awful in most places. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Td's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The Euro was way off here, too. GSO got down to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Author Share Posted January 8, 2015 Let me ask y'all this...Should we do 1 more for Sunday? I know its going to most likely be just rain, but I am curious to see how the models will handle an arctic airmass leaving and dew points and all that. ONLY CAD areas..maybe ATL, MCN, AGS, CAE, GSP, GSO, CLT and RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Let me ask y'all this...Should we do 1 more for Sunday? I know its going to most likely be just rain, but I am curious to see how the models will handle an arctic airmass leaving and dew points and all that. ONLY CAD areas..maybe ATL, MCN, AGS, CAE, GSP, GSO, CLT and RDU? Can you explain what a CAD area is? I know it means cold air damming but what makes a CAD area a CAD area? If that makes sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Models busted high on the temps but busted WAY too low on the DP's. Yea, they have been at least 8-10 degrees higher than what was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.