adk Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 After close inspection I concluded that there was plenty of snow in VT since the sunday's rain. Looking better and better out there. 2-4" nickel and dime events add up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 What's the depth in the lower el's out there? I've got some friends coming up late next week and we might be looking at doing a little XC-skiing. I've got 7-8" at home in the village, though I saw the village CoCoRAHS guy had 9" this morning (somehow I record more snowfall than him/her but their depth can often be higher)....and I had 14" at 1,500ft this morning. The bulk of the snowpack is rock solid, so it goes a little further with regards to coverage for skiing/snowshoeing/snowmobiling than just a 7-14" pack of fluff. All the daily light snowfalls of .5" to 3" seem to just collapse on themselves, but there's some fluff starting to build up on the ice pack below. There's more than enough for XC skiing around this area, as you usually only need a solid 3" for spots like Stowe's XC Center or Trapps to open their trails. Doing RT 108 where it's closed between Stowe and Jeffersonville is usually pretty darn awesome as you won't see winter views like that anywhere else in the area. I take visiting friends and family there a lot just because of the "wow" factor of being between the cliffs and the overall big mountain feel once you get deep into the Notch of the road. Great XC-skiing to go from one closure gate to the other and back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Too quite here. Starting to get that déjà vu feeling all over again for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Too quite here. Starting to get that déjà vu feeling all over again for January. I think tomorrow could be an over-performer up here...I'm seeing increased support for over 0.25" of liquid (including the 06z GFS, para GFS, GGEM, and now the 12z NAM) in north/central to NE VT. The SREFS are useless but their mean had 0.25-.5" too. Even tthe 9z ARF on ewall had over 1/2" of liquid in 24 hours in NE VT. Generally the profile is getting more moist and there seems to be some better forcing lingering over the area...2-4" may be a good bet right now to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 -2.2F this morning. K1P1 took the cake with -14F. CON's -8F was way below MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think tomorrow could be an over-performer up here...I'm seeing increased support for over 0.25" of liquid (including the 06z GFS, para GFS, GGEM, and now the 12z NAM) in north/central to NE VT. The SREFS are useless but their mean had 0.25-.5" too. Even tthe 9z ARF on ewall had over 1/2" of liquid in 24 hours in NE VT. Generally the profile is getting more moist and there seems to be some better forcing lingering over the area...2-4" may be a good bet right now to start. Thanks. Keep moving the chains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I've got 7-8" at home in the village, though I saw the village CoCoRAHS guy had 9" this morning (somehow I record more snowfall than him/her but their depth can often be higher)....and I had 14" at 1,500ft this morning. The bulk of the snowpack is rock solid, so it goes a little further with regards to coverage for skiing/snowshoeing/snowmobiling than just a 7-14" pack of fluff. All the daily light snowfalls of .5" to 3" seem to just collapse on themselves, but there's some fluff starting to build up on the ice pack below. There's more than enough for XC skiing around this area, as you usually only need a solid 3" for spots like Stowe's XC Center or Trapps to open their trails. Doing RT 108 where it's closed between Stowe and Jeffersonville is usually pretty darn awesome as you won't see winter views like that anywhere else in the area. I take visiting friends and family there a lot just because of the "wow" factor of being between the cliffs and the overall big mountain feel once you get deep into the Notch of the road. Great XC-skiing to go from one closure gate to the other and back. Great thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 14.8F -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 5F this AM and I'm probably 6 miles directly south of Plymouth airport. I need to get a min thermometer and put it in the field 1/4 mile down my road and several hundred feet lower. Some nice big mood flakes midday. How much QPF does the new Euro give us for C/NNE. Skimobile trails are open but barely. 3" would really help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 5F this AM and I'm probably 6 miles directly south of Plymouth airport. I need to get a min thermometer and put it in the field 1/4 mile down my road and several hundred feet lower. Some nice big mood flakes midday. How much QPF does the new Euro give us for C/NNE. Skimobile trails are open but barely. 3" would really help 0.15-0.20"ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I agree with BTV's forecast... that's in line with my 3-5" thinking (for the ski area) after seeing the 6z and early 12z models. I like 2-4" for the mountain valleys. Tonight Cloudy. Light snow after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows around 16. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Monday Light snow. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. South winds around 10 mph in the morning... Becoming light and variable. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Monday Night Cloudy with light snow likely until midnight...then partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Much colder with lows around 7 below. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 20 below after midnight. Great thoughts by LAHIFF this afternoon... seems very reasonable given all the guidance right now. .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 317 PM EST SUNDAY...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIRADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWESTCONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TOINDICATE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ANDPORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS A MODEST 850MB JET OF 30-40KTSPASSES JUST OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL A BIT ACROSS THESEAREAS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH MID-DAY GENERALLY0.5-1.5" ACROSS THE REGION, LOWEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS WEMOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH, A SURFACE COLD FRONTAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHTHE FOCUS OF PRECIP SHIFTING FROM THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL TO MESOSCALEAS CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE WESTERNSLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. LOCALLY DERIVEDFROUDE NUMBER INDICATES SUBCRITICAL BLOCKED FLOW FAVORING PRECIPFALLING IMMEDIATE UPWIND AND ATOP THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS ESPECIALLYMT. ABE NORTH TO JAY PEAK. BY MIDNIGHT, SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THENORTH COUNTRY SHOULD RANGE FROM 1" IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAINVALLEY TO 2-3" ELSEWHERE BELOW 1000 FEET. ABOVE 1000 FEET ALONGTHE SPINE OF THE NORTHERN GREENS ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM2-4" TO UP TO 6" AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 0.15-0.20"ish Thanks Brian. That would be about 2-4" at my elevation I would think but I'm not seeing anyone thinking we will get that much. More like 1-2". Down to 15F now so I would think in the AM its still going to be fairly cold with ratio's maybe 1:15 for me. Guess no point in discussing an inch or so difference for Mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 BTV's map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 BTV's map... Thanks for the map PF – there's nothing for me to put up in terms of an advisories map since snowfall amount vs. time period isn’t expected to warrant it as you guys were discussing in the storm thread. The point forecast here sums to the 2-4" range and the map has us in that 3-5" shading. I would expect a Froude Number favoring right along the spine, as noted in the shaded text below from the BTV NWS forecast discussion, would be decent for this area, but we'll have to see how it goes. .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 317 PM EST SUNDAY...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO INDICATE SOME DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT AS A MODEST 850MB JET OF 30-40KTS PASSES JUST OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL A BIT ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION THROUGH MID-DAY GENERALLY 0.5-1.5" ACROSS THE REGION, LOWEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH, A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH THE FOCUS OF PRECIP SHIFTING FROM THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL TO MESOSCALE AS CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS. LOCALLY DERIVED FROUDE NUMBER INDICATES SUBCRITICAL BLOCKED FLOW FAVORING PRECIP FALLING IMMEDIATE UPWIND AND ATOP THE MOUNTAIN CRESTS ESPECIALLY MT. ABE NORTH TO JAY PEAK. BY MIDNIGHT, SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND AN 1" IN THE IMMEDIATE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO 1.5-3" ELSEWHERE BELOW 1500 FEET. ABOVE 1500 FEET ALONG THE SPINE OF THE NORTHERN GREENS ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4" TO UP TO 5" NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Another week without any major storm. Ugh. This is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 We are at around an inch at 1500ft so far. There was 0.6" at 5:45am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 1.2 inches as of 7:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.05" L.E. There was 0.4" of snow on the boards this morning, and it was very dense, coming in at a healthy 12.5% H2O. The reason it was so dense was due to the flake structure – they were just tiny spheres. It didn’t have the rime-coated, fluffy nature of graupel, nor was it sleet; the material was typical flake density, but just very spherical. Perhaps it is some form of graupel, but I figured some of the folks on here would know its name/origin. Anyway, the snowfall had picked up a bit with the addition of larger flakes when I was leaving the house a couple of hours later, and that snow persisted as I headed westward down the Winooski Valley. It tapered a bit once I got down into Bolton Flats and beyond, but it was generally there until just past Richmond Village, where it really shut off to just cloudy conditions with the occasional flurry. From there westward through the Champlain Valley to Burlington it seemed like there had been little if any new snow, and the temperature was up close to the freezing mark. Some light snow has resumed here in Burlington as of mid morning, and at the house there's been another ½" to ¾" of accumulation. I cleared the measurement board for the J&E Productions Live Web Cam at 6:00 A.M. this morning, but I've got the cam running for anyone monitoring accumulations in the area. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.05 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 8.0 Snow Density: 12.5% H2O Temperature: 23.0 F Sky: Light snow (1 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Not snowing enough to see on the Sugarbush webcam at the base of Lincoln Peak. Snowing nicely up at the base of the heavens gate mid-mountain lift per the resort web cams. Looks like a great day to ski up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The skiing is phenomenal...it's only 2" or so but it's dense synoptic snow. Just skiing it feels similar to 6" of fluff. Dry but very dense. Visibility has been low at times down to half a mile at the mountain, but flakes are very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I am enjoying seeing snow on the ground again. About an inch here so far. I can't wait to return to the slopes after this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 26 with a fair amount of sun, few flakes in the air. Guess my thoughts of 3-4" from yesterday are not going to happen. Less than an inch so far. What are squall chances later with the fropa? Is all the snow just in NNE going to be pulled south with the low? I've been on that southern edge past couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I just checked the mountain snowboards at 145pm and had 2.9" at 1500ft and 3.5" at 3000ft. Been snowing steadily all day and feels like there should be more than that but the flakes are small and it's a dense but cold snow. The type of 9-10:1 ratio stuff we get with WAA aloft snowfall. I'd guess up to 1/3" of QPF has come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 2.2 inches here, snowing nicely again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 2.2 inches here, snowing nicely again.About the same here. A smidge over 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Just got home and found 2.6" on the snow board and the same amount on the cars parked out front, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Best snow of the day has been falling here for the past half hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 WRF has another .2Qpf before this is done ...which would be real nice. at -10C 850 temps that last topper inch would be oh so nice and fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Another week without any major storm. Ugh. This is getting old. Can we make it three Januarys in succession without a decent snowstorm? 12z gfs suggests affirmative, wth almost two weeks of nothing followed by a torch-deluge (though over the past couple weeks, anything more than 100 hr away has been nearly worthless.) In 16+ winters here, I've had 30 snowstorms 10" or greater, including one this past Nov. Only 2 of them were in Jan, while Dec/Feb/ Mar have 7/8/9, respectively. Even April has had 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Can we make it three Januarys in succession without a decent snowstorm? 12z gfs suggests affirmative, wth almost two weeks of nothing followed by a torch-deluge (though over the past couple weeks, anything more than 100 hr away has been nearly worthless.) In 16+ winters here, I've had 30 snowstorms 10" or greater, including one this past Nov. Only 2 of them were in Jan, while Dec/Feb/ Mar have 7/8/9, respectively. Even April has had 3. Seems like we lose one month of winter between Dec and March every year. Most in Jan. Despite this dry period, I've snowshoed twice, snowmobiled once and skied yesterday. Definitely need more snow for snowmobiling, so getting a bit annoyed with the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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