Lava Rock Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 now up to a balmy 2.2f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Mansfield stake hit an important marking today at 40" of depth...that's sort of a general benchmark for off-piste skiing & riding when the woods become decently ok to ski. Once we hit 60" everything is in, but at 40" you can really start to explore a bit more. The snow depth has gone up 4" in the past day or two (despite only capturing 1.4" of new snow), so the new snow is helping. We ended the day with 3.75-4.0" at 3,000ft over 24 hours which would match the snow depth increase a bit better. STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.13 0 -16 -16 1.4 40 Hey, that's great to hear, and right about average according to the SkiVT-L Mt. Mansfield Snow Depth Graph: Looking back at the data I posted last month, the date of hitting the 24" snowpack mark (green star) was also right around average: …and the start of snowpack this season was definitely ahead of average (green star) but within 1 S.D. (thin vertical lines) of the mean: So I'd say that early snowpack start speaks to the above average November in that department, and I know mountain and valley November snowfall was above average around here in that same vein. Subsequent snowpack benchmarks have been about average, although I think December and January snowfall have been below average for the mountains thus far. Summing that all up, I'd go with a rating of roughly average to this point in the season for the spine of the Northern Greens, at least in terms of the more objective metrics of snowpack and snowfall. In terms of ski quality, which is a bit more subjective, I think things have been a little below average on the whole. I wouldn't say excessively so, but the big gap in quality conditions over that holiday period knocks things down somewhat. We skied in some great snow on December 23rd, and then didn’t find conditions worthy of going out again until January 2nd, which is a pretty big gap (10 days) for around here. I'd typically expect a much faster recovery to something decent in the Northern Greens. I haven't been out on the slopes since Sunday, but I'm assuming that as that wet snow tightened up, things got firmer, so the new snowfall we've picked up this week has been needed. With another potential shot of snow tonight into tomorrow, it should be interesting to see where things stand this weekend in terms of quality. Below I've got the north to south listing of the 24-72 hr snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas, depending on what the resorts have available. That should be covering most of the snowfall since the SWFE storm over the weekend. I thought there might be the usual trend of the northern resorts catching the most snow, but the totals are really all over the map; maybe it was due to those squalls hitting some areas and not others: Jay Peak: 10” Burke: 1” Smuggler’s Notch: 4” Stowe: 4” Bolton Valley: 1” Mad River Glen: 1” Sugarbush: 2” Middlebury: 6” Suicide Six: 0” Pico: 4” Killington: 4” Okemo: 2” Bromley: 2” Magic Mountain: 0” Stratton: 9” Mount Snow: 2” At the house, we're hanging pretty close to average on season snowfall (~½ foot behind) but snowpack is very much on the low side – average is around a foot and it's currently only at 3 inches. I think as above, that really speaks to the "quality" aspect of the snow being on the low side out there, with the combination of near average snowfall but well below average snowpack for our location being a result of more freeze/thaw issues etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Got colder than I thought. -14.2F makes it the 3rd coldest reading since I have own the house since 1989. Record is -19F Bright sun should get me to around zero by noon. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 And it looks like our 1-3 for tonight into tomorrow has evaporated in the latest NWS grids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 And it looks like our 1-3 for tonight into tomorrow has evaporated in the latest NWS grids This is the Lamoille County zone forecast for here...I'm surprised they are only going chance POP with no accum in the Valley... but with strong SW winds you could certainly have some downsloping issues and the Froude looks unblocked so its going to push the precip into the interior. Tonight Cloudy. Snow showers likely...mainly after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows around 5 above. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Friday Cloudy. Snow showers likely...mainly in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Highs in the lower 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Friday Night Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 3 above. Light and variable winds. Saturday Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs around 13. West winds around 10 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 In the last 2 days we've nickel and penny our way to 1.7" (regular measuring and clearing) though I just measured on the car and the settled depth from the last two days is 1.5". The local CoCoRAHS spot in the Village had 1.1" total as of this morning, but I don't know what's been going on as almost all these events I've been seeing more snow than him unless he's just measuring once every 24 hours and it settles out some. But even so, there's 1.5" of new snow on the driveway, cars, and trees, and this is pretty small flake snow so its not settling out too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 This is the Lamoille County zone forecast for here...I'm surprised they are only going chance POP with no accum in the Valley... but with strong SW winds you could certainly have some downsloping issues and the Froude looks unblocked so its going to push the precip into the interior. Tonight Cloudy. Snow showers likely...mainly after midnight. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Lows around 5 above. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Friday Cloudy. Snow showers likely...mainly in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Highs in the lower 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Friday Night Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 3 above. Light and variable winds. Saturday Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs around 13. West winds around 10 mph. Yeah my guess is shadowing may be the problem this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like Jay Peak had a good day today... 10" in the last 48 hours on their report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 High today was 5.7°F, Down to 0.1°F, Should bottom out soon and start to rise into the single digits overnight as winds shift out of the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Mansfield apparently did end up hitting the benchmark -30F for a low temp... That's a solid cold shot. Average temperature for the day was -17F. DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 539 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.05 -4 -30 -4 CLOUDY 0.5 40 Brief but potent... a 24 hour shot from 0F to -30F and back to near 0F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 For the GYX crew... Any idea if the CON data from 12/30 and 12/31 will be fixed/estimated from when the ASOS temp sensor failed? The night of the 30th into the 31st was a cold one. I had a min of 6.5F and CON is always a few colder than me on radiational cooling nights. They seem to run pretty closely with those Bear Brook (BERN3), Suncook River (NCHN3), and Soucook River (SOUN3) sites relatively near the airport. CON failed after the 302351Z ob (assuming the 0Z ob is correct) and had a low temp of 18F at that point and was still falling. I see in the NOWdata that the min for the 30th went in as that 18F. 00Z temps at the other sites and the late midnight min at 5Z... BERN3 14F @ 302358Z...min 5F @ 310458Z SOUN3 16.5F @ 302345Z...min 10.1F @ 310500Z NCHN3 14.3F @ 302345Z...min 6.4F @ 310500Z I hit 11.2F before 5Z so I'd guess CON was probably closer to 6-8F for a min than 18F. The following day's morning mins... BERN3 3F SOUN3 6.6F NCHN3 4.0F CON was given a late min of 8F after the ASOS temp came back up midday. I had a min of 6.5F so I'd assume they were actually 3-4F during the morning. That's ~15F of error on the summation of the monthly mins which equates to about a 0.5F error on the monthly avg min. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like Jay Peak had a good day today... 10" in the last 48 hours on their report. Yeah, that looks pretty impressive. As soon as I assembled those snow totals in my post today and saw some of the huge disparities, I began to think about hitting the Jay Peak area backcountry this weekend. I broached the topic with E and the boys as soon as I got home this evening. We'll see what this next storm brings, but after seeing those images, it certainly seems like an attractive option. We've done Gilpin Mountain in the past, but it would be fun to try something different - I wonder if borderwx has any ideas since he seems to know the area well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Topped out at 4 this aft, from a morning at -22; it surprisingly dropped 3F from when I had looked at 6:50 AM. Temp was -7 at 9 PM, quite cold considering it has clouded over. More than 8F below my avg so far in Jan. Of course, the same was true of Dec on the 8th - hoping (with model-backed confidence) that doesn't mean anything for the rest of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.05" L.E. We picked up an additional 0.2" of the arctic dust today. As PF noted earlier and most folks around here have been seeing for themselves, the flakes are small as is typical of this arctic-like snow. My liquid analyses have been locked right in at a very consistent 10% H2O. It's medium weight snow, so it does have some substance, and we've finally had some movement in the snowpack depth for the first time in 4-5 days. From my reading of the BTV NWS forecast discussion, they're generally attributing this snowfall to the arctic air, so I'm leaving these accumulations as part of the arctic front/arctic air event until this next Clipper/shortwave comes through. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 5.1 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I was just reading through the BTV NWS forecast discussion and saw 250-260 degrees mentioned for wind flow tomorrow into tomorrow night with respect to Lake Ontario. The current LES event is nothing like the ones from November of course, but ~255 degrees lines things up pretty nicely for moisture being transported to the Mansfield area, assuming areas downwind have a similar trajectory. That trajectory led to some nice bonus moisture in those November events, so it sort of piques my interest now when I hear about an extended period with flow in that direction: .SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MEAN 925-850 TEMPERATURES FALLING BY LATER IN THE DAY. ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN SFC TEMPERATURE RESPONSE HOWEVER...SO A FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED SUGGESTING MID-AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. BIGGER WEATHER STORY...ALBEIT MORE LOCALIZED...WILL BE INCREASING LAKE SNOWS EAST/NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT MEAN PBL FLOW WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN ABOUT 250-260 CARDINAL DIRECTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHT SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY LONG-LIVED NATURE OF THIS EVENT (~ 24 HOUR)...DEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS TO 700 MB AND MINIMAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAVE ISSUED LAKE SNOW ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WHERE APPROPRIATE...ADVERTISING DIFFICULT TO LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. OUTSIDE THE LAKE SNOWS...MAINLY SCT SHSN/FLURRIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SLV/ADIRONDACKS INTO CENTRAL/NRN VT. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNTS IN THE BROADER VALLEYS. MAINLY DRY SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I had made the same decision J after what I skied wed morning. It has only improved with the wind and additional snows. What day are thinking of coming up? Saturday is a pond hockey day for us, so sunday I would be happy to share a skin track you and yours. It is still fairly low tide, solid base where it exists, but some water bars and brooks still making for attentive skiing. Gilpin was my first choice too, low angle woods. Have a feeling it will be skied out though in the usual places, there are some other options on that side of the road and the other. Another low angle, low traffic ski will be in hazen's notch, cross a couple brooks heading north on the LT and you won't be able to miss it, climbs up the NW side of Sugarloaf, the winds may have shuffled this area hard though. If Sat is your day and your set to do Gilpin, PM me. pretty balmy out to start today, 12F, fortunately the wind is still ripping:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Light snow this morning but only 0.2" at home. Around 0.4" up at 1,500ft and 3/4-1" at 3000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01" L.E. There was a fresh tenth of an inch on the boards this morning, and this snow will be going into totals for the Clipper/cold front currently passing through the area. This Clipper marks the 21st accumulating storm of the season for our location, and checking my numbers, the mean through this date is 19 storms. So, storm frequency is slightly ahead of average. As of today, snowfall is running at 83.8% of average and as of today's date we are 40% of the way through the snowfall season based on mean snowfall here. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0 Snow Density: 10.0% H2O Temperature: 14.1 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Happy happy happy birthday PF, May your days be filled with good health,happiness,love and mega upslope events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Had an inch overnight with light snow still falling when I left the house at 7:30. Looks nice out there. 10 above this morning felt oh-so-much better than yesterday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I had made the same decision J after what I skied wed morning. It has only improved with the wind and additional snows. What day are thinking of coming up? Saturday is a pond hockey day for us, so sunday I would be happy to share a skin track you and yours. It is still fairly low tide, solid base where it exists, but some water bars and brooks still making for attentive skiing. Gilpin was my first choice too, low angle woods. Have a feeling it will be skied out though in the usual places, there are some other options on that side of the road and the other. Another low angle, low traffic ski will be in hazen's notch, cross a couple brooks heading north on the LT and you won't be able to miss it, climbs up the NW side of Sugarloaf, the winds may have shuffled this area hard though. If Sat is your day and your set to do Gilpin, PM me. Thanks border; it will have to be Saturday for us, since Sunday marks the first day of the local school ski programs at Stowe. I'll send you a PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like a decent squall line in the valley...snow definitely picked up again on the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Made some turns with PF this morning which was awesome. Hopefully we didn't slow him down too much. Snow picking up quickly here at the mountain... Hoping these bands hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like a decent squall line in the valley...snow definitely picked up again on the mountain. Just approaching Nashville now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Watched the squall line come across the lake. Full on squall in South Burlington right now. 0.2" when I left the house this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 This line looks good on radar. Is it the leading edge of the cold front? Wonder if its going to make it over the spine and get us guys in NH that causally miss out. Models I guess say it will fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Now that was more like it. Vis dropped between 1/4 and 1/8 mile with that squall here It was enough to fully whiten the ground. The Greens should get a solid hit from it as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Here is what it looked like just north of Winooski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Glad you got one eyewall. I am due east of you and Geographically in the middle of NH, north to south and east to west. The spine will probably kill the line but will be interesting in another hour or two to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Glad you got one eyewall. I am due east of you and Geographically in the middle of NH, north to south and east to west. The spine will probably kill the line but will be interesting in another hour or two to see what happens. Thank you and I hope it holds out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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