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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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Event totals: 5.5” Snow/0.20" L.E.

 

There was 1.2" of additional snow today during the 6:00 A.M. to 6:00 P.M. time period.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7% H2O

Temperature: 23.9 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 20.5"

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Some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen here. Probably legit 0SM-1/16SM.

Love snow squall snow.. Never seen a synoptic snow storm produce the rates that squalls do.  Watched them move through on my webcam today.   Are squalls more prevalent this time of year because the of steeper lapse rates?

 

Greenup is just begining on the Gulf coast.  Driving down I noticed dandelions and taller green grass 20 to 50 miles north of the barrier islands.  The cold Gulf must slow up things immediately at the shore like our Atlantic beaches do.  Winds were light from the south and very thick fog banks came in late PM.  HIt 72F for 15 minutes and I got really excited.  Pollen counts start on the weather reports this week.  Mostly palm and evergreen pines down here but some deciduous trees budding red. Everyone is planting pansies.  The "Met" they have on the local Panama City station looks like he's 15 years old.  Guess you have to start somewhere. i can't emphazie how much new building is going on, just really high end shops and homes.  Lots of interesting architecture and use of pastel colors.  I would guess the temperatures and weather will be perfect in about a month before the real humidity  and heat get going.

 

 Hope Boston hits its 107" this week.  I'll be ack up there March 28th in time for mud season to start!    Oh one more thing.  Destin Beach and Panama City are in Central time and it really plays with sunup and sundown being on a east edge of a zone. Get's dark and light really early.  That will change some next weekend as we spring ahead.

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Love snow squall snow.. Never seen a synoptic snow storm produce the rates that squalls do. Watched them move through on my webcam today. Are squalls more prevalent this time of year because the of steeper lapse rates?

Greenup is just begining on the Gulf coast. Driving down I noticed dandelions and taller green grass 20 to 50 miles north of the barrier islands. The cold Gulf must slow up things immediately at the shore like our Atlantic beaches. Winds were light from the south and very thick fog banks came in late PM. HIt 72F for 15 minutes and I got really excited. Pollen counts start on the weather reports this week. Mostly palm and evergreen pines down here but some deciduous trees budding red. Everyone is planting pansies. The "Met" they have on the local Panama City station looks like he's 15 years old. Guess you have to start somewhere. Hope Boston hits its 107" this week. Back up there March 28th in time for mud season to start! Oh one more thing. Destin Beach and Panama City are in Central time and it really plays with sunup and sundown being on a east edge of a zone. Get's dark and light really early. That will change some next weekend.

I love that part of the Gulf Coast. Drive east and you can still find some beautiful empty beaches. Especially love Apalachicola. In the Big Bend, I've seen cattle graze almost to the water's edge. PCB and Destin are exploding but I still like the area. Will be spending a week in PCB this July.
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I've updated the totals from the most recent storm using this morning's data; the north to south listing for the Vermont ski areas is below; totals topped out in the 8-9" range but were very heterogeneous up and down the spine:

 

Jay Peak: 8”

Burke: 2”

Smuggler’s Notch: 4”

Stowe: 6”

Bolton Valley: 8”

Mad River Glen: 8”

Sugarbush: 4”

Pico: 3”

Killington: 3”

Okemo: 4”

Bromley: 7”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 9”

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Jspin and PF...any idea of water content in your snowpack?

 

I'm sure there's been some loss to sublimation, but I've got to think the water in there is somewhere in the 3-5" range.  I'll let you know as soon as I run the actual analysis.[/size]

 

I cored the snowpack yesterday evening and let it melt down overnight to reveal 4.47" of total liquid, so my initial estimate of somewhere in the 3-5" range wasn't too bad.  Prior to this analysis, my previous check on the water content in the snowpack was on December 22nd, and it was at 1.88", but a good portion of that would have been lost over the warm period during the holidays, so I don’t think there's much to correlate from December in the current water content.  Therefore, with 5.22" of liquid falling during January and February, it looks like most of that is still in there.

 

I hadn't actually reported my January and February snowfall and total liquid numbers here yet, so I've got those below.  As others have noted for here in the Northern Greens, it's been pretty unremarkable with December and January coming in low on snow and roughly average on liquid.  February was somewhat low on liquid, but it was at least able to come up to the average range on snowfall:

 

December

Liquid:  4.89" (101.2%)

Snow:  24.9" (61.3%)

 

January

Liquid:  2.78" (98.9%)

Snow:  29.5 (86.3%)

 

February

Liquid:  2.44" (82.2%)

Snow:  42.8" (104.9%)

 

I've got enough seasons worth of data now that I'm starting to monitor snowfall deviation from average throughout the course of the season, and I've got the data for the current season plotted below starting in November.  Being a month with lower snowfall numbers and so early in the season, deviations from average are going to be more notable in November, and those attributes and the good snowfall from this November are borne out in the way the plot peaks at 300+% around mid month.  Now as the season progresses, early deviations are going to fade (we're not likely to stay at 300% of average snowfall through the end of the season, since that would mean a season total in the 500" range), so one would expect the plot to correct downward.  In this case, the snowfall deficiencies in December and January are clearly evident though, because one can see the plot drop fairly consistently through those months until it's below average – and then is sort of languishes there until the beginning of February.  We had a couple of bright spots in early and then late February (visible on the plot) where it looked like the season snowfall might try to accelerate to an above average level, but those never really took and we've been sitting in sort of that ~95% of average area since the end of February.  We'll see how this next event goes, but it doesn’t look like it's really on the scale to push snowfall much above the average level.  It looks like it could help to hold pat though.

 

03MAR15C.jpg

 

So overall, with the way these past three midwinter months have gone, snowfall this season has been adequate for snow on the ground thanks to above average snowpack preservation, but certainly nothing noteworthy.  It is however worth noting that as of this date we are currently in better shape than the past three below average-seasons; current season snowfall is roughly 20 inches ahead of where it was at this point in those cases.

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Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.11" L.E.

 

There are some larger flakes out there, but mostly small flakes making for some dense snow this evening.

 

Details from the 10:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.11 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 9.1

Snow Density: 11.0% H2O

Temperature: 22.8 F

Sky: Snow (1-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 19.5"

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Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.13" L.E.

 

There were apparently just some additional small flakes overnight; added accumulation was 0.2" and there were no signs of any mixed precipitation.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.4 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 19.5"

 

Below is the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas for this storm; Jay Peak is topping the list with a 6" report.  Some of the areas to the south did note some mixed precipitation in their morning reports.

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 3”

Mad River Glen: 1”

Sugarbush: 4”

Pico: T”

Killington: T”

Okemo: 2”

Bromley: 2”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 2”

 

The next opportunities for snow appear to be during the weekend:

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE NORTH COUNTRY, MAINLY LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, CONTRIBUTING TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF EACH UPPER LEVEL WAVE.

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I have no idea how much snow we got last night. the wind was howling.  It took all the new snow off the roof and the cars were almost bare this morning.  Some cool drifts too.  I would estimate an inch but I just am not sure.

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Temp in St. J went to 34 at the 8:54 reading and Peacham is now at 32.1  First time over freezing since January 19.  Not a bad stretch of cold.

 

 

Maybe it is time for a new thread.- late winter is upon us.

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