J.Spin Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Is it me or does friday look like a damn fine upslope day in northern greens on euro 12z . 990 LP just north of Caribou...hmmm Yeah, I've been seeing that with the way that low pressure tracks in some of the model runs. If it starts to gain traction, I suspect we'll see the BTV NWS meteorologists start to talk about it in the forecast discussion, as well as the folks here like PF, adk, etc. We really haven’t had much in the way of substantial upslope snows this season in the Northern Greens; it's just not been that type of pattern with the way the storms have tracked. That aspect, and the storm track being too far south has really kept the season from taking off in terms of snowfall. Based on my data set, snowfall for the season will slip back below average tomorrow barring some additional snow. What I think is neat is that people keep coming up to me and telling me about how they've heard that Jay Peak etc. have had more snowfall than anywhere else in the contiguous U.S. at this point, but it really speaks more to how low snowfall has been in the western part of the county vs. high snowfall here. Snowfall up here has really been just average. The sustained cold is what has been making the ski conditions great, not notable snowfall. February itself is currently ahead of average on snowfall though by about eight inches using my data, and that's the reason the area was able to catch up to at least average in terms of snowfall on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 For fans of Mt. Mansfield and the SkiVT-L Mt. Mansfield Snow Depth Graph, I just saw this SkiVT-L post from a guy who has made a modified version of the plot that people might find useful: http://vermont-skiing.2813.n7.nabble.com/New-Mt-Mansfield-Snow-Depth-Visualization-td62074.html http://mattparrilla.github.io/mansfield-stake/ It looks like you can select just one season at a time based on a quick test, but it's very fast and has all the other seasons visible for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 We are mostly in arctic desert mode for the time being. We will have to watch the weekend: FRIDAY WILL TREND COLD AND DRYAS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. CONTINUEDSTRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THEHIGH AND A DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMALWITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS AND LIKELY ADVISORY/WARNING LEVELWIND CHILLS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THEEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARSUPPORTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, SO WE`LL SEE YET ANOTHERNIGHT OF BELOW ZERO TEMPS, COLDEST IN THE CLIMO FAVORED HOLLOWS OFTHE NORTHERN DACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WHERE NUMBERS COULD FALLINTO THE -20F RANGE.GOING INTO THE WEEKEND CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT WE`LL SEE SOMESNOWFALL FROM LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OUT OF THE LEE OF THE ROCKIESAND PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. STILL A LOT OFUNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT SHOOTSTHROUGH THE NORTHEAST BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MAJORITYOF THE SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LITTLE OVERALL IMPACTTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A LIGHT SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY AT THIS POINTWITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 6" SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSUNDAY. ONE BRIGHT SPOT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THAT THE ASSOCIATEDWARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF 20 DEGREETEMPS FOR SUNDAY, BOY WON`T THAT FEEL NICE! SORRY TO SAY THOUGH THATIT WON`T LAST LONG AS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER STRONG ARCTICSURFACE HIGH AND UPPER TROUGH BUILD OVER THE AREA TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK WITH TEENS FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LOWS BACK BELOW THEZERO MARK AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 We are mostly in arctic desert mode for the time being. We will have to watch the weekend: What about tomorrow through Thursday night though? .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 354 PM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER TOUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. EXPECTED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. It looks like that latest GFS suggests ¼" to ½" of liquid through Friday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Posted this in the banter thread, but know there was discussion of it in this thread as well... Man this video is crazy...this is from the search and rescue operation of that hiker fatality in the Presidentials near MWN. Check out the two guys getting knocked down by the wind around 20 seconds in. That's some intense conditions at -20 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 What about tomorrow through Thursday night though? .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 354 PM EST TUESDAY...AN UPPER TOUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOWING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. EXPECTED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. It looks like that latest GFS suggests ¼" to ½" of liquid through Friday morning: Yeah that is looking better...not a big deal but we should have some accumulating snows and I'm wondering if the higher elevations pull a 6-10" upslope event out of this at the ski areas along the Spine. We've seen much worse set-ups produce, that's for sure. The potential is there for a nice refresher for the slopes. The last wind storm definitely did a bit of scouring and produced more variable conditions than we've seen lately. Its still good, dry snow, but there's definitely some slab and scoured ice out there up high. The above treeline conditions definitely deteriorated some...but that's from exceptional powder skiing (best in the nation), to just good/great conditions, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah that is looking better...not a big deal but we should have some accumulating snows and I'm wondering if the higher elevations pull a 6-10" upslope event out of this at the ski areas along the Spine. We've seen much worse set-ups produce, that's for sure. The potential is there for a nice refresher for the slopes. The last wind storm definitely did a bit of scouring and produced more variable conditions than we've seen lately. Its still good, dry snow, but there's definitely some slab and scoured ice out there up high. The above treeline conditions definitely deteriorated some...but that's from exceptional powder skiing (best in the nation), to just good/great conditions, haha. I certainly agree thursday into friday should be a good refresher for the Mtns. It's not and ideal upslope set up as winds will be more northerly friday night than westerly. However looks good to make a 3-4" event across the northern greens. Above treeline terrain is actually pretty lean given how good the below treeline skiing has been. THe winds have done a number on the higher terrain this season and the cold snow just can't stick around up there. Needs some wet spring snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The advisories and projected accumulations maps for this next potential event are below; higher amounts of snow are expected off to the east, with the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont under Winter Weather Advisories. The projected accumulations map is through 10 A.M. tomorrow, but the point forecast for our area comes in around 3-8" through Friday. .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 409 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY UPPER LOW SETTLES ATOP THE REGION AND CLOSES OFF IN THE MID LEVELS AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND ADVANCES SLOWLY NORTHEAST. MODELS REMAIN ON BOARD SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRONOUNCED NORLUN TROUGH EXTENDING NNW FROM THE LOW ACROSS SW MAINE INTO CENTRAL/NRN NH AND INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VT TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THURSDAY. AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A ROBUST 30-40 KT SOUTHEASTERLY JET AT 925 MB AND LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH LAYER SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE STEADIER SNOWFALL ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVERNIGHT. PER COORDINATION WITH NWS GRAY, MAINE HEAVIER TOTALS SHOULD BE ACROSS NH/ME WHERE BETTER UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL EXIST. NONETHELESS, ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE METEOROLOGICAL SETUP TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVSY FOR NERN VT FOR A GENERAL 3-6 INCH SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MID- MORNING ON THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE STEADY LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN WILL ALSO EXIST, BUT WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER IN NATURE WHERE TOTALS WILL AVERAGE MORE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10, MILDEST EAST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS/SHSN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH EDGE SLOWLY EAST WHILE SFC LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES. ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MORE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL EVOLVE AS PBL FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND P-GRADIENT TIGHTENS UNDER BLOCKED FLOW. I`VE KEPT ADDITIONAL TOTALS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, BUT SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOWER-END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GYX Maine painted in totals for VT a bit higher than BTV (updated the map a few hours after BTV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GYX Maine painted in totals for VT a bit higher than BTV (updated the map a few hours after BTV) I think part of that is due to the period covered by the maps; the BTV map was only through 10:00 A.M. Thursday, while the GYX map indicates that it's the total snow forecast through 7:00 P.M. Friday. The GYX map is actually pretty consistent with what's in our point forecast through that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think part of that is due to the period covered by the maps; the BTV map was only through 10:00 A.M. Thursday, while the GYX map indicates that it's the total snow forecast through 7:00 P.M. Friday. The GYX map is actually pretty consistent with what's in our point forecast through that period. Ahh good catch. I overlooked the time difference there. Good to see the slopes getting a refresher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Some nice bonus extreme cold last night. -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The Euro for Sun/Mon brings the low right over BTV. it is leaning more towards at least a partial rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nice comfortable day clear skies made it to 30.3F. 4:30pm and almost totally cloud free. This system evolution is so different than the norm that usually has high clouds slowly lowering many hours before precip. Guess a low deck is going to come west and it will start snowing almost immediately later this eve. My plow guys are all calling me for amounts. Seems like big bust potential. Have not been above freezing since Jan 22, hard to think of rain later in the weekend. Probably CAD will over perform as normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Here it comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've added the latest BTV NWS map updates below for the upcoming event; the projected accumulations map now covers through 7:00 P.M. Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Sweet photo Borderwx. Good to see you post once in a while. Been a great winter for outdoor recreation. The persistent flurry has been going on for the past couple hours now. MVL/MPV both at 1.0 mile visibility -SN... BTV at 7 mile vis and having a bit harder time getting going over there. Snowing even more steadily under the beam in eastern/northeastern VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I've added the latest BTV NWS map updates below for the upcoming event; the projected accumulations map now covers through 7:00 P.M. Thursday. Hey quick question, where do you guys get that 2nd map? I had a link saved for btv and okx's maps but both links are dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hey quick question, where do you guys get that 2nd map? I had a link saved for btv and okx's maps but both links are dead. Hey, how did I not notice that you are a mod now? Does the promotion come with free golf lessons? BTW, I struggle finding those maps too, I depend on JSpin and Powderfreak, though I believe that you can reach them through their FB page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.06" L.E. Snow had started up by 11:00 P.M. or so last night, with 0.9" on the board this morning and light snow falling. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.06 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 15.0 Snow Density: 6.7% H2O Temperature: 13.3 F Sky: Light Snow (2-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.0" There's also been an additional 0.7" of snow so far this morning. Relative to the most recent version from yesterday, it looks like fairly minor adjustments were made to the projected snow totals map for this area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Fascinating snow right now. Really blocked up into a small pocket along the Winnoski on the western side of the Green spine. Bolton has to be getting crushed while stowe was seeing sunny skies this morning. Just wild how that can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Fascinating snow right now. Really blocked up into a small pocket along the Winnoski on the western side of the Green spine. Bolton has to be getting crushed while stowe was seeing sunny skies this morning. Just wild how that can happen. Suns out here in town while BTV has 1/2sm moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 1.6" last night. I think it must have all come down in a pretty small window. Went to bed and the stars were still out and woke up to clear sky.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hey quick question, where do you guys get that 2nd map? I had a link saved for btv and okx's maps but both links are dead. The one I got was from the link under "News Headlines" near the top of the BTV NWS homepage; they typically have the projected accumulations maps there when a storm is in the immediate future or is in progress. I've also got the link below in my bookmarks, which seems to be a spot to get the maps even when there is not a storm in progress. So far it appears to have the old style of projected accumulations maps: http://www.weather.gov/btv/stormtotalsnow Another spot that will sometimes carry the maps, typically integrated with other elements, is the BTV NWS Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/NWSBurlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone (PF?) know if the mountain forecast tomorrow will have high winds? I know they're calling for gusts to 30mph around here, but we're thinking of skiing at sunday river tomorrow. Was there last Friday and it was below zero and the winds were whipping with 1/3 of the mountain closed. We're not season pass holders, so even CL tix ($65) are a bit expensive. Don't mind the cost if the whole mountain is open, but don't want to show up and be disappointed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Heavy snow squall moving thru vis 1/8 to 1/4. I bet Rt 93 is pretty bad right now. Will measure once it is over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Getting blitzed in CON now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I need to not look at radar on days like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 1/4SM at the ASOS. Pushing an inch pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 radar lighting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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