jlauderdal Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The next 48 hours is setting up to be an overperformer based on what it was looking like just 36h ago on the gfs(uggh) and euro. Anyone looking for deep winter looks like they are going to get it. The snowfall totals keep trending up but as you guys know you put down just a few inches on 20-30 mph winds you have something. QPF continues to increase with each run and with the atmosphere coming together to maximize this weekend then QPF is a big deal. I come from a part of the world where QPF really matters during the rainy season because the atmosphere is maximized everyday to take advantage of the available moisture which is typically over 1.5 inches every day and usually 2 or above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It sucks that we will mostly miss out on this next system. I am hoping at some point before winter is out we will get another crack at a big one. Agreed. No complaints because conditions are fantastic, but we haven't had a biggie in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 It sucks that we will mostly miss out on this next system. I am hoping at some point before winter is out we will get another crack at a big one. Don't give up yet. We have another 4 months of winter up here. WWA for this out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I was just looking at the snow data for Pittsburg. http://www.johnsnhweather.com/wxsnowdetail.php They get a lot of snow each year, but good lord what a tediously boring way to do it. The thought of cleaning my car off 15-20 times per month would drive me insane. LOL, that's kind of how it comes for us here too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Asked but no answers on the SNE thread. How do we do QPF wise up here? Sounds like Euro is meh and east really just a Maine storm??? Well, this one I get to see, rather than just clear off my driveway after arriving home from our NJ trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Damn, that was a cold ski day. Didn't help that my goggles were freezing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well the 18Z GFS me and dendrite in the .50" zone. So looking at everything I would guess a 3-6" or 4-8".....but wouldn't there have to be a second deformation max somewhere around here giving higher totals? I get so confused with deformation zones. Eeek you have been the most accurate, what's your guess for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Plenty of time left for the big one EW, lots of winter left up here. A couple pics from ski tours this week, LT markers at 3000' almost gone... Breathing break views... one heck of great winter so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well the 18Z GFS me and dendrite in the .50" zone. So looking at everything I would guess a 3-6" or 4-8".....but wouldn't there have to be a second deformation max somewhere around here giving higher totals? I get so confused with deformation zones. Eeek you have been the most accurate, what's your guess for our area? 6.7" for you 8.8" for me We'll be watching a glorious yellow-pixel deformation band camp out just to our east I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 BTV's map... regardless of the content, I really like these new maps this winter. They are better than those pixel-heavy old maps you still see from time to time from various offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Plenty of time left for the big one EW, lots of winter left up here. A couple pics from ski tours this week, LT markers at 3000' almost gone... one heck of great winter so far Nice shots dude. Its been good for sure. Compared to last year, this has been an awesome winter. Snowfall may not be over-the-top, but the lack of thaws and consistent snowfall since mid-November, has led to some quality conditions out there in the woods. One of the most consistent stretchs of great off-piste skiing I can remember. Here's one from yesterday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The higher elevation forests are caked in snow...many feet deep with no crust or freeze-thaw layer. Its hard to get a sense of scale in this photo, but this tree somehow managed to accumulate like 4-5 feet of snow on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 -10.7F already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -8f here. Tomorrows going to be a good day to explore. Not so cold and plenty of fresh snow out there to be had. Great pics fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 -2F -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It was one of those strange nights where it's crystal clear for most of the night allowing us to tickle -20 (-18) only to wake up to clouds and light snow already falling.....at -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Steady light snow commencing. Dusting otg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It was one of those strange nights where it's crystal clear for most of the night allowing us to tickle -20 (-18) only to wake up to clouds and light snow already falling.....at -10.For whatever reason, I had expected any snow to come later in the day. Maybe this is a sign of a gigantic forecast bust and VT ends ups in the bullseye for this storm. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 For whatever reason, I had expected any snow to come later in the day. Maybe this is a sign of a gigantic forecast bust and VT ends ups in the bullseye for this storm. Lol A Valentine's day miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peteradiator Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 seems like models are even further east with less snow for all. how many times are they gonna flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Event totals: 2.7” Snow/0.08" L.E. Yesterday, the previous storm system finished off with a final tenth of an inch of accumulation in the morning, but I wasn't able to report on that until evening observations. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: -1.3 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 18.0" Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01" L.E. It appears as though this morning's snow is part of this upcoming system comprised of potent 5H vorticity dropping southeast across Great Lakes and supporting coastal low pressure development. I initially thought that the flakes were just the typical arctic dust in the 1 mm diameter range, but there were definitely some larger flakes in there as well. The resulting density of the snow certainly bore that out, being in the 5% H2O range instead of the typical 10% H2O snow that seems to come from those small arctic flakes. Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: -4.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.0" I didn’t grab copies of yesterday's maps, but Winter Weather Advisories were visible in the southern and eastern parts of the state. Unfortunately they are buried under Wind Chill Warnings at this point. The BTV NWS projected snowfall map from this morning has seen totals bumped up a bit in this area relative to the one PF posted yesterday, so I've added them both below for reference/comparison. Our point forecast here in Waterbury calls for storm accumulations in the 3-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Event totals: 2.7” Snow/0.08" L.E. Yesterday, the previous storm system finished off with a final tenth of an inch of accumulation in the morning, but I wasn't able to report on that until evening observations Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: -1.3 F Sky: Clear Snow at the stake: 18.0" Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.01" L.E. It appears as though this morning's snow is part of this upcoming system comprised of potent 5H vorticity dropping southeast across Great Lakes and supporting coastal low pressure development. I initially thought that the flakes were just the typical arctic dust in the 1 mm diameter range, but there were definitely some larger flakes in there as well. The resulting density of the snow certainly bore that out, being in the 5% H2O range instead of the typical 10% H2O snow that seems to come from those small arctic flakes. Details from the 7:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0 Snow Density: 5.0% H2O Temperature: -4.9 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 18.0" I didn’t grab copies of yesterday's maps, but Winter Weather Advisories were visible in the southern and eastern parts of the state. Unfortunately they are buried under Wind Chill Warnings at this point. The BTV NWS projected snowfall map from this morning has seen totals bumped up a bit in this area relative to the one PF posted yesterday, so I've added them both below for reference/comparison. Our point forecast here in Waterbury calls for storm accumulations in the 3-5" range. No surprise on the increased precip...qpf has been trending up last 48hLight snow in Stowe,,,temp: COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I failed in my mission to capture a glowing red Mt. Mansfield at sunset yesterday because the damn camera battery died, but before that I captured some shots of a well iced over Lake Champlain. I walked out to the breakwall which is pretty far off shore. The second shot shows the hole I fell into between rocks as it had a false shallow cover of snow between them with space underneath. I nearly broke my leg and a really expensive camera lens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 It was one of those strange nights where it's crystal clear for most of the night allowing us to tickle -20 (-18) only to wake up to clouds and light snow already falling.....at -10. gave up on the bruins game last night it was -12F, heat wave now as we bounced to 6F and climbing, surprised to see the snow now too, take our 2-3" and keep on piling. I like that ice blob in the 3rd pic eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well its pretty safe to say outside of Maine this will not give us alot of snow. I am more curious to see how high the winds will get and how cold with wind it will be Sunday night. Any guesses? Will Boston fall below zero? With the blowing and drifting probably tomorrow and tomorrow night some of the worst conditions NE has seen in along while? Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Light snow falling--pushing an inch so far. Still pretty cold too at -2. This feels like a 4-5" deal for around here. Great shots of Champlain, eyewall. Second to last one looks like something out of Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Light snow falling--pushing an inch so far. Still pretty cold too at -2. This feels like a 4-5" deal for around here. Great shots of Champlain, eyewall. Second to last one looks like something out of Siberia. Thank you. It definitely felt like being in the arctic as I would imagine it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 No surprise on the increased precip...qpf has been trending up last 48h Light snow in Stowe,,,temp: COLD I hadn't noticed it until it came up on The Weather Channel in our local forecast, but I guess we're actually part of the Winter Weather Advisory here in Waterbury. It's still buried under the Wind Chill Warning on the advisories map though. Actually, I just thought of a nice feature that the NWS could add to their advisories maps in the future – toggles for each type of warning so that one could go turn them on and off and still get visuals on the geographic distribution of the advisory elements of interest. Sometimes you get those flood/snow, or snow/cold overlaps and it's not immediately obvious what other concerns are out there when one supersedes all the others on the map. For instance, right now we've got three different advisories in effect, a Wind Chill Warning, a Winter Weather Advisory, and a Hazardous Weather Outlook, but I wouldn’t know about the latter two unless I actually inspected the text area in my point forecast. Obviously the advisories element on the web page would need to be an interactive piece instead of just the static image that it is at this point, but it would certainly be something to think about for the next iteration of NWS web pages. If Nittany or one of the other BTV NWS meteorologists sees this, pass it along, or let me know where I should send the suggestion. Winter Weather Advisory text is below: Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 307 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 VTZ008-011-018-142100- /O.UPG.KBTV.WC.A.0003.150215T0600Z-150216T1700Z/ /O.NEW.KBTV.WC.W.0006.150215T1500Z-150216T1700Z/ /O.EXB.KBTV.WW.Y.0008.150214T1800Z-150215T1800Z/ WASHINGTON-WESTERN RUTLAND-EASTERN ADDISON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTPELIER...RUTLAND...BRISTOL...RIPTON 307 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON...WESTERN RUTLAND...AND EASTERN ADDISON COUNTIES IN VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. * TIMING...OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT WITH PEAK INTENSITY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 9 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY. * WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 40 BELOW DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY CAUSE FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN IN LESS THAN 15 MINUTES. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SUNDAY FROM 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE. LOWS 18 BELOW TO ZERO ON MONDAY MORNING. * VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Frustrating clouds ruined the -40 last night. Was on target for some extreme cold but ended up with -2.6 On to the next disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Frustrating clouds ruined the -40 last night. Was on target for some extreme cold but ended up with -2.6 On to the next disappointment. Well eek maybe we will do better than Boston on this one. I don't get the Euro but from Brian says in the other thread we may do okay. After the trend of the GFS I was kind of settling for 2-4" or 3-6". Light snow is picking up right now and we have a patch coming in from West Mass. Curious to see how much the new Euro has for us. Hint.....Brian? what we got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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