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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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3" so far at the base.  Snow growth has been ok, even though its -5F.  Looking at the radar we've got a decent ways to go.  That back end is going to linger and its still out near BUF.

 

I see J.Spin's camera has 3-4" on it now, he may make 8".

 

I think this will work out about as expected, I was going for a half a foot here.  Take these 6" snows every couple days all season long if I could.

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3" so far at the base.  Snow growth has been ok, even though its -5F.  Looking at the radar we've got a decent ways to go.  That back end is going to linger and its still out near BUF.

 

I see J.Spin's camera has 3-4" on it now, he may make 8".

 

I think this will work out about as expected, I was going for a half a foot here.  Take these 6" snows every couple days all season long if I could.

 

6" is right for this event. All models were in good agreement around .5" qpf or so. With ratios being what they are 6" is going to work out. Prob. ski pretty well given the flake shape and density. 

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6" is right for this event. All models were in good agreement around .5" qpf or so. With ratios being what they are 6" is going to work out. Prob. ski pretty well given the flake shape and density. 

 

Its really pretty fluffy...I'd bet 20:1 ratios on the mountain.  Flakes are decent sized.  This morning's models dropped QPF a bit to more like 0.3-0.5", but its nuking right now so we'll see what happens.  This is easily 1"/hr.

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Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.08" L.E.

 

It's pretty neat to see such a substantial amount of snow falling like this at temperatures around zero F, we don’t see that too often.  Flakes have been a mixture of sizes, with a lot of small ones and a few larger ones up to 4 mm in diameter.  Overall density came in right at 10% H2O with this morning's core, so a very standard synoptic-type density.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.08 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 0.5 F

Sky: Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.5"

 

As of mid morning it looks like there's been 4 to 5 inches of snow at the house, with what appear to be notably larger flakes.

 

There have been some updates to the BTV NWS advisory and accumulations maps, so I've added them below.  The advisory map is now wall to wall Winter Storm Warnings, and the projected accumulations map has been refined a bit.  It seems pretty similar in Vermont, but numbers have increased over toward the Saint Lawrence Valley.

 

02FEB15A.jpg

 

02FEB15B.jpg

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3" so far at the base.  Snow growth has been ok, even though its -5F.  Looking at the radar we've got a decent ways to go.  That back end is going to linger and its still out near BUF.

 

I see J.Spin's camera has 3-4" on it now, he may make 8".

 

I think this will work out about as expected, I was going for a half a foot here.  Take these 6" snows every couple days all season long if I could.

 

Yeah, I was thinking the lower end of the forecast range if the snow stayed at the 10% H2O density that this morning's core revealed, but I'd say flake growth has increased the rate of accumulation as the morning has proceeded.

 

02FEB15C.jpg

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Back of the envelop calculation based on you being roughly 4500 feet below the beam and assuming an average northeast wind speed of 25 knots in that layer, would be about an 11 mile drift of flakes.

 

So your snowfall is actually coming from about 11 miles to your northeast.

Yup...I've been noticing it too so I've been cheering on the bands just to my north.
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Up to 5.1". It snowed fairly hard the past hour, but maybe the wind is causing issues. Looks like another event that will underperform.

6.0F and -SN

 

I was always a little concerned about going hog wild on snow amounts. I thought widespread 6-10 looked good up here with isolated higher amounts scattered from your south through coastal Maine.

 

That 10-14" range we have is terrible, I'd rather have 8-12" in there somewhere but it's not up to us.

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Back of the envelop calculation based on you being roughly 4500 feet below the beam and assuming an average northeast wind speed of 25 knots in that layer, would be about an 11 mile drift of flakes.

 

So your snowfall is actually coming from about 11 miles to your northeast.

Good to know.  I'm rooting for yellow pixels over Moultonboro now.

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