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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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Haha it was only a matter of time before someone found that ;). Sometime last year when the Ski The East guys found out I was actually trying to measure ski area snow in a somewhat controlled environment, they thought that'd be a good angle for a video. Their marketing guy was a snow reporter at Killington, Sunday River, Attitash and Mt Bachelor in Oregon...and Mt Bachelor was the only spot that actually measured snow with any consistency for avalanche concerns. But all other areas he said the SOP was going with your "gut feeling" for snowfall and there's a lot of "I think we have 6 inches" vs actually knowing if you do. Which is likely what led to most people including the NWS to be very skeptical of ski area snowfall amounts...because no one was or is actually measuring with any consistency, but just giving it an educated guess as they skied through it.

It can be a pain in the arse sometimes to try and be diligent, but I'd rather have firm data to fall back on aside from just eyeballing it or measuring in different spots everyday that may change with wind direction and the such.

Because you set everything up and monitor it methodically, everyone can have complete faith that it is reliable. Can't say that about many, if any, others. Bravo and thank you.

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Thanks.

Yeah going to be cold this week but it seems like a standard January cold shot...well below normal but not record stuff and short duration. Luckily it seems like only one or two days may be a bit miserable...particularly Thursday morning will be brutal. But again, northern mountains in mid January, it's sort of expected to some degree.

wind combination not standard stuff
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Btw- liked to thank all of you who said 1/2 beared watching. Had a friend who came up New Years day. Long trip, he said not to wake him before 9. I asked, what if there's snow when we awake? He said, it's not snowing. Told him you people were saying it was possible. He slept, and I jumped out bed at the sound of the plow to get about 5 runs through untracked powder while it was snowing.

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Driving home tonight felt like we were in a virga storm. The snow was so fine everything looked fuzzy but you could barely see the flakes in front of you.

Yeah the flakes are so fine it's like a mist but accumulating snow. Picked up only 0.2" here but it's a very fine dense arctic snow.

Even the ASOS stations are confused with MPV and MVL reporting the snow as "Haze". Particles must not be big enough to register as snowflakes. Like 4 mile visibility in haze when it's really -SN.

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Anyone else notice BTV issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow?  I hadn't noticed that until just now.

 




NYZ027-028-030-031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-071000-
/O.CON.KBTV.WC.W.0002.150107T1500Z-150108T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBTV.WW.Y.0002.150107T1400Z-150107T2000Z/
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...SARANAC LAKE...
TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...
TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
615 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON EST THURSDAY...

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON EST THURSDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS 
  TO 4 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 INCH IN 15 TO 20 MINUTES WITH SNOW 
  SQUALLS.

* LOCATIONS...THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...THE 
  CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW SQUALLS MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY. 
  DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BELOW...AND LOCALLY 
  AS LOW AS 40 BELOW IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. THIS 
  WILL BE OWING TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH 
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF SNOW 
  SQUALLS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING 9 TO 10 AM ACROSS 
  NORTHERN NEW YORK...AROUND NOON IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 
  EXITING THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY 2 TO 3 PM WEDNESDAY. 
  DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN 
  NEW YORK DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND 
  ACROSS VERMONT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. 
  THE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY 
  MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS (15 TO 30 
  MINUTES) OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN 
  HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILLS OF THIS 
  MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN 
  IN LESS THAN 15 MINUTES.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH MIDDAY 
  WEDNESDAY...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND BELOW ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
  MORNING.

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO FOR 15 TO 30 MINUTES WITH SNOW SQUALL 
  ACTIVITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

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Yeah, the 18Z NAM has SBCAPE 100-150 J/kg at 18z Wednesday across central VT, with steep lapse rates to 600mb. Along with strong arctic boundary, isallobaric couplet, frontogenetic forcing, it looks like a high end snow squall threat early afternoon. 

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Yeah, the 18Z NAM has SBCAPE 100-150 J/kg at 18z Wednesday across central VT, with steep lapse rates to 600mb. Along with strong arctic boundary, isallobaric couplet, frontogenetic forcing, it looks like a high end snow squall threat early afternoon.

Nice! I hadn't looked at it too much but was just about to take a good look at the 18z BTV4 and then see what 00z says. These can be quite productive at the ski resorts if they break right.

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Yeah, the 18Z NAM has SBCAPE 100-150 J/kg at 18z Wednesday across central VT, with steep lapse rates to 600mb. Along with strong arctic boundary, isallobaric couplet, frontogenetic forcing, it looks like a high end snow squall threat early afternoon. 

 

That spells an intense squall of snow. Not surpised NWS BTV went with a WWA for tomorrow. That covers the "pay attention" type winter weather.  Squall w/ intense freeze-up on all roads and whatnot qualifies as pay attention type weather. 

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Anyone else notice BTV issued a Winter Weather Advisory for tomorrow?  I hadn't noticed that until just now.

 

06JAN15C.jpg

 
NYZ027-028-030-031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-071000-
/O.CON.KBTV.WC.W.0002.150107T1500Z-150108T1700Z/
/O.CON.KBTV.WW.Y.0002.150107T1400Z-150107T2000Z/
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...SARANAC LAKE...
TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...
TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
615 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2015
 
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM
EST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON EST THURSDAY...
 
A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON EST THURSDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
 
* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS 
  TO 4 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
 
* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 INCH IN 15 TO 20 MINUTES WITH SNOW 
  SQUALLS.
 
* LOCATIONS...THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...THE 
  CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.
 
* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW SQUALLS MIDDAY HOURS WEDNESDAY. 
  DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
 
* WIND CHILL READINGS...GENERALLY 25 TO 35 BELOW...AND LOCALLY 
  AS LOW AS 40 BELOW IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. THIS 
  WILL BE OWING TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ALONG WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH 
  WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
 
* TIMING...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF SNOW 
  SQUALLS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING 9 TO 10 AM ACROSS 
  NORTHERN NEW YORK...AROUND NOON IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND 
  EXITING THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY 2 TO 3 PM WEDNESDAY. 
  DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN 
  NEW YORK DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY...AND 
  ACROSS VERMONT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. 
  THE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY 
  MORNING.
 
* IMPACTS...SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS (15 TO 30 
  MINUTES) OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN 
  HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILLS OF THIS 
  MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN 
  IN LESS THAN 15 MINUTES.
 
* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
 
* TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES THROUGH MIDDAY 
  WEDNESDAY...THEN FALLING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY 
  AFTERNOON AND BELOW ZERO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY 
  MORNING.
 
* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO FOR 15 TO 30 MINUTES WITH SNOW SQUALL 
  ACTIVITY.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 
A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
 
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.
 

 

Wow, that's great to know; I definitely hadn’t heard about it until now.  It's sort of a stealth Winter Weather Advisory because it's buried underneath a Wind Chill Warning:

 

06JAN15B.jpg

 

Clearly the priorities on the advisories map aren't in the right place if cold is trumping snow!  …but of course the NWS knows their stuff and the impending cold must be the greater public impact and potential hazard/danger.

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I bet it's because a Warning (Wind Chill) trumps Advisories in the NOAA graphics. I see that a lot in thaw events too...like a High Wind Warning gets the lead over the Flood Watch or something like that.

But Id be curious if NWS has any say in which one is displayed on the main county graphic...or if it's just pre-programmed to display the more severe statement (warning over advisory, advisory over watch, etc)...or maybe it's a timing issue too.

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That spells an intense squall of snow. Not surpised NWS BTV went with a WWA for tomorrow. That covers the "pay attention" type winter weather. Squall w/ intense freeze-up on all roads and whatnot qualifies as pay attention type weather.

Over/under for how long I-89 closes between exit 10 and 11? :lol:

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That's a nice surprise. In other news, for my snowmobiling compatriots, our club's groomer just went through. They went out when the season opened to roll the trails and we retained that base through the ensuing crap. The snow this weekend combined with this cold should set the trails up ok.

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I bet it's because a Warning (Wind Chill) trumps Advisories in the NOAA graphics. I see that a lot in thaw events too...like a High Wind Warning gets the lead over the Flood Watch or something like that.

But Id be curious if NWS has any say in which one is displayed on the main county graphic...or if it's just pre-programmed to display the more severe statement (warning over advisory, advisory over watch, etc)...or maybe it's a timing issue too.

 

Out of our hands, it's just a product hierarchy. So you warning > advisory > watch.

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Event totals: 0.1” Snow/0.01" L.E.

 

It looks like a tenth of an inch will do it for this upper level disturbance/Clipper at our location.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 13.1 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 3.0"

 

Next up appears to be the potential for snow squalls with the advancement of the arctic front today.  There have been a couple tweaks to the advisories map, but in general for much of Vermont it's a Winter Weather Advisory buried underneath a Wind Chill Warning:

 

07JAN15A.jpg

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

419 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

 

NYZ027-028-030-031-034-035-VTZ001>012-016>019-072230-

/O.CON.KBTV.WC.W.0002.150107T1500Z-150108T1700Z/

/O.CON.KBTV.WW.Y.0002.150107T1400Z-150107T2000Z/

NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-

WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-GRAND ISLE-

WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-

CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-

WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-

EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...SARANAC LAKE...

TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...

TICONDEROGA...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...

MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...

KILLINGTON

419 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS

MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING

TO NOON EST THURSDAY...

 

A WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT  FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING

TO NOON EST THURSDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 4

  INCHES POSSIBLE.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

 

* LOCATIONS...THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...THE

  CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW SQUALLS TODAY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND

  CHILLS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

 

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 45 BELOW DUE TO TEMPERATURES

  26 BELOW TO 12 ABOVE ZERO...AND WINDS WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH

  GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

 

* TIMING...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING A LINE OF SNOW SQUALLS

  THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BEGINNING 9 TO 11 AM ACROSS NORTHERN

  NEW YORK...11 AM TO 1 PM IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AND EXITING

  THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY 2 TO 3 PM WEDNESDAY.

  DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN

  NEW YORK DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING...AND ACROSS VERMONT

  THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND

  CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

 

* IMPACTS...SNOW SQUALLS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS (15 TO 30

  MINUTES) OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN

  HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH. WIND CHILLS OF THIS

  MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN

  IN LESS THAN 15 MINUTES.

 

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS 7 TO 17 ABOVE. LOWS TONIGHT 16 BELOW TO 26

  BELOW ZERO.

 

* VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO FOR 15 TO 30 MINUTES WITH SNOW SQUALL

  ACTIVITY.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND

STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS

WILL RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF

PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

The point forecast for our location calls for 2-4" of snow, which agrees with the latest projected accumulations map:

 

07JAN15B.jpg

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It was a big nothing here. I charged the camera for nothing LOL. Oh well, it was about 5 minutes of 3/4 mile vis and that was all. I wish I would have time to head up toward Milton/St. Albans where it looked more robust.

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