wxeyeNH Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here's my near daily Euro questions. How's the qpf. I am guessing .5 goes west to east around Concord NH???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 3.7" total for the clipper here and now at 18" otg. Eight windy dregrees below zero early this morning. Up to 5F now under full sun and not quite as breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ^ Of course since my last post, the wind's been freight-training through here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Deep winter up here at Steele hill resort. Roaring windsand blowing snow :-) Just a gorgeous winter day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 ^ Of course since my last post, the wind's been freight-training through here. We had a huge pulse of wind at Stowe from like 1-3pm. It seemed like it had died off from this morning, and then all the sudden all hell broke loose with constant 50-60mph gusts above 2,500ft. I've never seen such huge plumes of blowing snow on the upper mountain...they were like 500 feet in the air. Then it seemed to die almost as suddenly as it started. I wonder if that pulse is what you got around 3-4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Pretty wintry outlook from the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Here's my near daily Euro questions. How's the qpf. I am guessing .5 goes west to east around Concord NH????Don't worry about it yet. It's probably too cold/far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Wind still roaring through the trees. Thought it would drop right off at dark. 4.5F top gust today 37mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well, it feels like I just finished posting maps from Winter Storm Kari, and the next one, Winter Storm Linus, is prompting Winter Storm Watches in the area. As of the afternoon update, Winter Storm Watches and Winter Storm Warnings extend 2/3 of the way northward into Vermont, and we're under the Winter Storm Watch here in Washington County: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 305 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 NYZ034-035-VTZ008>012-018-019-011000- /O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0005.150202T0900Z-150203T0000Z/ WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE- WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY... TICONDEROGA...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD... RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION... BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON 305 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...SLOW TRAVEL OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS 1 BELOW TO 9 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 5 TO 11 ABOVE ON MONDAY. * VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. && $$ BANACOS The preliminary snowfall projections map from the BTV NWS suggests decreasing amounts of snow as one move northward, with 4-6" here in Waterbury: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Model QPF bumped north a tad pretty much across the board. GGEM/UKMET get over 0.5" now up to me. It's a north south gradient with no real terrain variability. So sort of like BTV-MVL-1V4 are all in the same boat. Euro is farthest south with 0.3-0.4" here. I like BTV's warnings location...I think I-89 south (between MPV/BTV) looks good for a warning criteria snowfall. Oh and 0.3" last night at home, looks like a weak wave moved through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 -1F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We had a huge pulse of wind at Stowe from like 1-3pm. It seemed like it had died off from this morning, and then all the sudden all hell broke loose with constant 50-60mph gusts above 2,500ft. I've never seen such huge plumes of blowing snow on the upper mountain...they were like 500 feet in the air. Then it seemed to die almost as suddenly as it started. I wonder if that pulse is what you got around 3-4pm. Yeah, that was an impressive pulse yesterday afternoon. Snow flying, trees bending, house popping.... All calm and -2F right now. How about another snow event at commute time to screw up schools & work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah, that was an impressive pulse yesterday afternoon. Snow flying, trees bending, house popping.... All calm and -2F right now. How about another snow event at commute time to screw up schools & work? I saw that too and my first thought was that it looked like a snow making cloud before I quickly realized that it couldn't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Had a low of -6F last night but we mixed out and shot up to +8F at 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I saw that too and my first thought was that it looked like a snow making cloud before I quickly realized that it couldn't be. We've actually been getting 'dust' here this morning despite little cloud cover. The air down low has that fuzzy look to it with tiny flakes/crystals drifting around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 We've actually been getting 'dust' here this morning despite little cloud cover. The air down low has that fuzzy look to it with tiny flakes/crystals drifting around... Same here. Actually coming down quite steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.02" L.E. With how ridiculously clear the sky was all day yesterday, and even into the evening, it was hard to figure out where the forecast snow was going to come from. But when I looked out in the wee hours of the morning this morning, there it was, just as the forecast had indicated. I figured it was going to be all tiny, arctic-style flakes, but there were some much larger ones in there as well, which is definitely evident from the amount of loft in it. Details from the 8:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.3 inches New Liquid: 0.02 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0 Snow Density: 1.7% H2O Temperature: 1.7 F Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 12.0" There's still some snow falling, so I'll report if there's any additional measurable accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah a half inch at 1500ft and 1.3" at 3000ft last night. Sunny aloft but like arctic mist snow down low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The more I look at the latest guidance, the more I like a nice west-east mid-level fronto band somewhere in the area of MPV/BTV/MVL...from like ART to BTV/MPV to BML or something maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Washington County has been bumped up to a warning. I'll play JSpin and put that and the latest BTV map here. WWUS41 KBTV 010814WSWBTVURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT314 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015NYZ034-035-VTZ008>012-018-019-012200-/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0005.150202T0900Z-150203T0000Z//O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0004.150202T0600Z-150203T0600Z/WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON314 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR MODERATE SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AMMONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...AND ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT 1 BELOW TO 11 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON MONDAY 5 TO 9 ABOVE.* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY MONDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITORTHE LATEST FORECASTS.A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRAFLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF ANEMERGENCY.PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...ORGO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THISWEATHER SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Washington County has been bumped up to a warning. I'll play JSpin and put that and the latest BTV map here. Thanks, we had to run off to mass and I hadn’t had a chance to do that. I'll add the advisories map below – generally Winter Storm Warnings for roughly the southern 2/3 of the state, and Winter Weather Advisories for the northern 1/3. The point forecast here in Waterbury is in the 4-8" range. The more I look at the latest guidance, the more I like a nice west-east mid-level fronto band somewhere in the area of MPV/BTV/MVL...from like ART to BTV/MPV to BML or something maybe. Well, that's good to hear, it's in the area of a number of us northern folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The more I look at the latest guidance, the more I like a nice west-east mid-level fronto band somewhere in the area of MPV/BTV/MVL...from like ART to BTV/MPV to BML or something maybe. I would favor(could be wrong)eastern half of NNE with that band as storms mid level lows take a while to get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I would favor(could be wrong)eastern half of NNE with that band as storms mid level lows take a while to get going Nah that thing is supposed to be developing all the way back in the Great Lakes. Here's the GFS... look at the H7 and H85 plots down there and follow the tracks of those lows. They go from the Great Lakes straight eastward across NNE. That has some high ratio fluff written on it from like southern Ontario across NNY/VT/NH/ME. And here's the 12z NAM with a similar feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is exactly the stuff Will and Coastalwx hammer at us in NNE when we start to worry about QPF... watch those mid-level lows and when they are tracking this far north, along with the vort max, I think we'll do fine overall. Someone though I think will get a nice surprise up here. The main downside right now is the dry low level cold air. That could fight off the isentropic lift for a little bit across the north, but there's some nice frontogenic forcing up a 700-600mb, so if you get into any sort of west to east stationary band you could pile up 1"/hr fluff for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is exactly the stuff Will and Coastalwx hammer at us in NNE when we start to worry about QPF... watch those mid-level lows and when they are tracking this far north, along with the vort max, I think we'll do fine overall. Someone though I think will get a nice surprise up here. The main downside right now is the dry low level cold air. That could fight off the isentropic lift for a little bit across the north, but there's some nice frontogenic forcing up a 700-600mb, so if you get into any sort of west to east stationary band you could pile up 1"/hr fluff for a while. I will say the isentropic charts show pretty rapid saturation occurring. The field is actually called condensation pressure deficits when looking in an isentropic sense, but generally less than 20 mb deficit is good enough for precip to occur. GFS has no problem achieving this, Euro is a little delayed but not denied, and NAM/CMC would be a little worrisome (but that may just be a grid resolution problem for me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I imagine the ratios should be real solid with this. I think BTV's call of around 5 inches here is reasonable. I am liking these well distributed snows for the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I refuse to put my eggs in the ratio basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 1, 2015 Author Share Posted February 1, 2015 I got .1 overnight. Jackpot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like we got to bum up snow amounts. Euro brings 15" snow line up to Central areas. (If we can trust the Euro). Should be great ratios. Full Feb 1 sun and only 15F at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I understand fearing the ratio game, but it looks like we could see a period of 15 or even 20:1 snows I would think in my region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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