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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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^ Of course since my last post, the wind's been freight-training through here.  :twister:

 

We had a huge pulse of wind at Stowe from like 1-3pm.  It seemed like it had died off from this morning, and then all the sudden all hell broke loose with constant 50-60mph gusts above 2,500ft.  I've never seen such huge plumes of blowing snow on the upper mountain...they were like 500 feet in the air.  Then it seemed to die almost as suddenly as it started.  I wonder if that pulse is what you got around 3-4pm.

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Well, it feels like I just finished posting maps from Winter Storm Kari, and the next one, Winter Storm Linus, is prompting Winter Storm Watches in the area.  As of the afternoon update, Winter Storm Watches and Winter Storm Warnings extend 2/3 of the way northward into Vermont, and we're under the Winter Storm Watch here in Washington County:

 

31JAN15B.jpg

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

305 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

 

NYZ034-035-VTZ008>012-018-019-011000-

/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0005.150202T0900Z-150203T0000Z/

WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-

WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...

TICONDEROGA...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...

RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...

BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON

305 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY

EVENING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY THROUGH 7 PM

MONDAY EVENING.

 

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...AND ESSEX COUNTY

  NEW YORK

 

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE SNOW.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST

  AMOUNTS ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY MONDAY

  MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON

  MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. SNOW SHOULD

  TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY

  EVENING.

 

* IMPACTS...SLOW TRAVEL OWING TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS AND LOW

  VISIBILITY.

 

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS 1 BELOW TO 9 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS

  5 TO 11 ABOVE ON MONDAY.

 

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY

  MONDAY.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR

THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

 

&&

 

$$

 

BANACOS

 

The preliminary snowfall projections map from the BTV NWS suggests decreasing amounts of snow as one move northward, with 4-6" here in Waterbury:

 

31JAN15C.jpg

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Model QPF bumped north a tad pretty much across the board. GGEM/UKMET get over 0.5" now up to me. It's a north south gradient with no real terrain variability. So sort of like BTV-MVL-1V4 are all in the same boat. Euro is farthest south with 0.3-0.4" here.

I like BTV's warnings location...I think I-89 south (between MPV/BTV) looks good for a warning criteria snowfall.

Oh and 0.3" last night at home, looks like a weak wave moved through.

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We had a huge pulse of wind at Stowe from like 1-3pm.  It seemed like it had died off from this morning, and then all the sudden all hell broke loose with constant 50-60mph gusts above 2,500ft.  I've never seen such huge plumes of blowing snow on the upper mountain...they were like 500 feet in the air.  Then it seemed to die almost as suddenly as it started.  I wonder if that pulse is what you got around 3-4pm.

 

Yeah, that was an impressive pulse yesterday afternoon.  Snow flying, trees bending, house popping....

 

All calm and -2F right now.

 

How about another snow event at commute time to screw up schools & work?  ;)

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Yeah, that was an impressive pulse yesterday afternoon.  Snow flying, trees bending, house popping....

 

All calm and -2F right now.

 

How about another snow event at commute time to screw up schools & work?  ;)

I saw that too and my first thought was that it looked like a snow making cloud before I quickly realized that it couldn't be.

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I saw that too and my first thought was that it looked like a snow making cloud before I quickly realized that it couldn't be.

 

We've actually been getting 'dust' here this morning despite little cloud cover.  The air down low has that fuzzy look to it with tiny flakes/crystals drifting around...

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Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.02" L.E.

 

With how ridiculously clear the sky was all day yesterday, and even into the evening, it was hard to figure out where the forecast snow was going to come from.  But when I looked out in the wee hours of the morning this morning, there it was, just as the forecast had indicated.  I figured it was going to be all tiny, arctic-style flakes, but there were some much larger ones in there as well, which is definitely evident from the amount of loft in it.

 

Details from the 8:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7% H2O

Temperature: 1.7 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 12.0"

 

There's still some snow falling, so I'll report if there's any additional measurable accumulation.

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Washington County has been bumped up to a warning.  I'll play JSpin and put that and the latest BTV map here.

 

WWUS41 KBTV 010814
WSWBTV

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
314 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

NYZ034-035-VTZ008>012-018-019-012200-
/O.UPG.KBTV.WS.A.0005.150202T0900Z-150203T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.W.0004.150202T0600Z-150203T0600Z/
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-
WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...
TICONDEROGA...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...
RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
314 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MODERATE SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM
MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT...AND ESSEX
  COUNTY NEW YORK

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST
  AMOUNTS ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY MONDAY
  MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
  MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. SNOW SHOULD
  TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS OWING TO SNOW COVERED
  ROADWAYS AND LOW VISIBILITY.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT 1 BELOW TO 11 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON
  MONDAY 5 TO 9 ABOVE.

* VISIBILITIES...DOWN TO ONE-QUARTER MILE AT TIMES DURING THE
  DAY MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

 

post-363-0-32107200-1422803116_thumb.png

 

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Washington County has been bumped up to a warning.  I'll play JSpin and put that and the latest BTV map here.

 

01FEB15B.jpg

 

 

Thanks, we had to run off to mass and I hadn’t had a chance to do that.  I'll add the advisories map below – generally Winter Storm Warnings for roughly the southern 2/3 of the state, and Winter Weather Advisories for the northern 1/3.  The point forecast here in Waterbury is in the 4-8" range.

 

01FEB15A.jpg

 

 

The more I look at the latest guidance, the more I like a nice west-east mid-level fronto band somewhere in the area of MPV/BTV/MVL...from like ART to BTV/MPV to BML or something maybe.

 

Well, that's good to hear, it's in the area of a number of us northern folks.

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The more I look at the latest guidance, the more I like a nice west-east mid-level fronto band somewhere in the area of MPV/BTV/MVL...from like ART to BTV/MPV to BML or something maybe.

I would favor(could be wrong)eastern half of NNE with that band as storms mid level lows take a while to get going

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I would favor(could be wrong)eastern half of NNE with that band as storms mid level lows take a while to get going

 

Nah that thing is supposed to be developing all the way back in the Great Lakes.

 

Here's the GFS... look at the H7 and H85 plots down there and follow the tracks of those lows.  They go from the Great Lakes straight eastward across NNE.  That has some high ratio fluff written on it from like southern Ontario across NNY/VT/NH/ME.

 

 

f30.gif

 

 

And here's the 12z NAM with a similar feature.

 

f27.gif

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This is exactly the stuff Will and Coastalwx hammer at us in NNE when we start to worry about QPF... watch those mid-level lows and when they are tracking this far north, along with the vort max, I think we'll do fine overall.  Someone though I think will get a nice surprise up here.  The main downside right now is the dry low level cold air.  That could fight off the isentropic lift for a little bit across the north, but there's some nice frontogenic forcing up a 700-600mb, so if you get into any sort of west to east stationary band you could pile up 1"/hr fluff for a while.

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This is exactly the stuff Will and Coastalwx hammer at us in NNE when we start to worry about QPF... watch those mid-level lows and when they are tracking this far north, along with the vort max, I think we'll do fine overall.  Someone though I think will get a nice surprise up here.  The main downside right now is the dry low level cold air.  That could fight off the isentropic lift for a little bit across the north, but there's some nice frontogenic forcing up a 700-600mb, so if you get into any sort of west to east stationary band you could pile up 1"/hr fluff for a while.

 

I will say the isentropic charts show pretty rapid saturation occurring. The field is actually called condensation pressure deficits when looking in an isentropic sense, but generally less than 20 mb deficit is good enough for precip to occur. GFS has no problem achieving this, Euro is a little delayed but not denied, and NAM/CMC would be a little worrisome (but that may just be a grid resolution problem for me).

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