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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2

klw

By klw,
in New England

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
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I read those measures too.  The one in Boscawen was a big surprise.  The piece of land we have is at 600-700 feet outside the main town of Boscawen and we spent the afternoon walking it and hanging out with friends who live near. By 5:30, after the big burst of snow, there was at least a foot.  I wonder if the measure in Boscawen was taken closer to the river at 350ft or something.

 

8 miles south of me Contoocook reported 13 inches.  I see CON reported 12.8 and they were in a radar snow hole when I wasn't.  

 

I really swear that I'm confident in 15 inches.  I really think it was 16.  Looking outside it looks like that, and driving around today I did notice some areas looked to have less snow.  I think there was huge variation and I got lucky.  The snow growth was good all day, no sugar/sand, and spectacular during the afternoon burst.  6" of fluff in 3 hours.  I did notice little bands of enhanced echoes at times so perhaps that is what made the difference, as well as an elevation effect?  My house is at 675 ft near the Webster Salisbury town line.

 

By the way, the 7.5 on .75 seems awfully low on snow totals.  Ratios were definitely good at my house.  Is that your report Brian?  If so, you must've had crappy snow growth.

 

Anyway I feel grateful to have done remarkably well for up in this area.

Interesting cocorahs snow obs around here...

New Snow / Water Equiv
Northfield 2.8E 11.5 / 0.69
Tilton-Northfield 3.3NE 7.5 / 0.75
Belmont 1.7SW 10.4 / 0.81
Laconia 7.9E 11.0 / 0.58

Bow 1.5N 20.0 / 1.40
Bow 1.6NW 9.5 / 0.47

Newbury 4.0SE 7.0 / 0.48
Newbury 1.6NW 14.0 / 0.56

Salem 1.7NNE 42.2 / 1.69 :lol:

It's safe to say it was difficult to measure this system.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Being as far north as they are relative to all other VT ski areas and yet they still reported the most for this storm? Not saying they didn't get that amount, but seems like they always report more than anyone, regardless if they truly got what they report. Sugarloaf got 8", while Sunday River reported 18". 

 

I talked to a friend who went to Jay today who guessed 2-4" might have been a better amount than 5-7".  Even with the drifting he said he couldn't really find anything close to a half foot on average.  But I don't know where or how they measure so who knows.  Still great skiing he said, just seemed like only a few inches.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

I talked to a friend who went to Jay today who guessed 2-4" might have been a better amount than 5-7".  Even with the drifting he said he couldn't really find anything close to a half foot on average.  But I don't know where or how they measure so who knows.  Still great skiing he said, just seemed like only a few inches.

 

If jay got 5-7" yesterday then Jay is going to get 12" from Friday's clipper. 

 

 

On second thought that isn't totally unreasonable.....though with some snow falling on a southwind the normal orographic enhancement will not come into play.

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Allenson

Allenson

Posted
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Wow.  I guess I was under a band that was pretty narrow.  I measured 6.5"  I'm not a really accurate observer like most here and will generally under report if I think there is anything that feels fishy with what I come up with.  I'm pretty confidant with what I measured for yesterday.  I'll check again when I get home.  I did hear Roger Hill on WDEV say that he had heard a report of 8" from Barre but that he thought it was a bad measurement.

 

Yeah, I think there was a band that came across and just missed us in Corinth.  I saw it snow pretty hard for a while on the Washington cam and wondered if my place was under that but when I got home, I could see that that wasn't the case.

 

No biggie--less work that I have to do, ha-ha.

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ApacheTrout

ApacheTrout

Posted
Posted

I talked to a friend who went to Jay today who guessed 2-4" might have been a better amount than 5-7".  Even with the drifting he said he couldn't really find anything close to a half foot on average.  But I don't know where or how they measure so who knows.  Still great skiing he said, just seemed like only a few inches.

they have an EB-5 guy from Singapore do it. ^_^

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

The evil word shadowing is mentioned again for the CPV with this clipper and that makes perfect sense. I am not confident we will see all that much unless we can do well on the back side if the flow becomes somewhat blocked.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

I read those measures too.  The one in Boscawen was a big surprise.  The piece of land we have is at 600-700 feet outside the main town of Boscawen and we spent the afternoon walking it and hanging out with friends who live near. By 5:30, after the big burst of snow, there was at least a foot.  I wonder if the measure in Boscawen was taken closer to the river at 350ft or something.

 

8 miles south of me Contoocook reported 13 inches.  I see CON reported 12.8 and they were in a radar snow hole when I wasn't.  

 

I really swear that I'm confident in 15 inches.  I really think it was 16.  Looking outside it looks like that, and driving around today I did notice some areas looked to have less snow.  I think there was huge variation and I got lucky.  The snow growth was good all day, no sugar/sand, and spectacular during the afternoon burst.  6" of fluff in 3 hours.  I did notice little bands of enhanced echoes at times so perhaps that is what made the difference, as well as an elevation effect?  My house is at 675 ft near the Webster Salisbury town line.

 

By the way, the 7.5 on .75 seems awfully low on snow totals.  Ratios were definitely good at my house.  Is that your report Brian?  If so, you must've had crappy snow growth.

 

Anyway I feel grateful to have done remarkably well for up in this area.

  Neither of those are mine. Is your area sheltered at all? IOW, do you get much wind or is your property protected by trees? If you live in a little opening amongst trees it allows the snow to stay fluffed up as it falls since your wind is less below the treetops. Also, any snow in the trees will fall downwind into your property too so you get a little bonus. I'm really exposed on the north side so I had quite a bit of blowing snow so the crystals were pulverized where I usually measure. On the south corner of my house I could tell it was "fluffier" where the pack was protected by the wind, but there's some blow off from the roof of the house too so I didn't want to measure there. I did a core out of the driveway this afternoon where the wind did a number on it. I had 8" of snow and 1.35" of liquid. So the drifting made the pack really dense over there.

I settled on 9.5" / 0.85". I just couldn't put it over 10". The actual depth out there is only like 14-15".

20" 1.4" LE at Bow  :lmao:

 

I can't find a drift with more than 12" IMBY (NE corner of Bow).  They may have measured where the plow truck piles snow.

That one was for you. I knew you'd get a chuckle out of that. :lol:
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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I think there was a band that came across and just missed us in Corinth. I saw it snow pretty hard for a while on the Washington cam and wondered if my place was under that but when I got home, I could see that that wasn't the case.

No biggie--less work that I have to do, ha-ha.

Well, I don't want to get a reputation as a slant sticker!
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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

BTV's final snowfall map.  Definitely some banding maxes and mins.  You can tell it was likely mid-level banding as the reports around the northern Greens were generally in the 2-2.5" range.

 

28JAN15A.jpg

 

Thanks for posting, thats quite the interesting map with those various spot values; it looks like everyone in the state got something at least, with the northwest corner being helped by that band.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

Of the ski areas I've seen this morning, the totals are...so probably a little minimum here, but I bet wind is making it impossible for anyone to be certain.

 

Jay Peak 5-7"

Smuggs 5-6"

Stowe 2-3"

Bolton 4-7"

MRG 4-6"

Sugarbush 2-4"

Killington 4"

 

I know you guys already updated some of these values, but here's what I found for north to south storm totals in the state as of this evening (just posting the top number at each location):

 

Jay Peak: 7”

Burke: 8”

Smuggler’s Notch: 6”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 7”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 6”

Middlebury: 8”

Suicide Six: 3”

Pico: 5”

Killington: 5”

Okemo: 8”

Bromley: 8”

Magic Mountain: 6”

Stratton: 8”

Mount Snow: 6”

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

The evil word shadowing is mentioned again for the CPV with this clipper and that makes perfect sense. I am not confident we will see all that much unless we can do well on the back side if the flow becomes somewhat blocked.

 

Yeah, I saw that Froude Number of <0.5 mentioned in the BTV NWS forecast discussion.  Our point forecast here along the spine comes in at 3-8" through Friday night, although that suggested Froude Number makes me think it would have the upslope snow hitting the Champlain Valley.  Some BTV NWS forecast discussion below:

 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SFC RIDGE WL QUICKLY SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR CWA ON THURS AFTN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERALL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING INITIAL SFC LOW PRES ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. BOTH NAM/GFS AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST JET OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS ACRS OUR CWA...WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND PARTS OF VT/NY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AS 5H/7H CIRCULATIONS BECOME CLOSED BY 18Z FRIDAY...AND SFC LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR EAST...WINDS WL BECOME WEST/NORTHWEST...WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP EXPECTED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE WL BE PULLED BACK INTO OUR CWA...AS BEST 850 TO 700MB RH PROGGS ARE JUST TO OUR EAST...AS SYSTEM BECOMES CLOSED OFF A BIT TO FAR EAST TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY MORNING...SUPPORTING LARGE FLAKE SIZE AND GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION RATES. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM WL CHANGE FROM SYNOPTIC TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING...WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...ALONG WITH GOOD 1000 TO 700MB RH PROFILES THRU 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE DACKS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. FROUDE NUMBER SHOWS VALUES <0.50...INDICATING BLOCKED FLW WITH LOWERING INVERSION...SUPPORTING PRECIP ALONG AND UPSTREAM OF THE MTNS.

 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 2 TO 5 INCHES CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF...AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...INCLUDING THE NEK OF VT. GIVEN FLUFF FACTOR AND BACKSIDE UPSLOPE FLW UNDER LLVL CAA...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES FROM JAY PEAK TO MT MANSFIELD...AND PARTS OF THE NEK NEAR WALDEN/BURKE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GEM/ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CLOSING OFF MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ADVECTING DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO EASTERN SECTION...ALONG WITH A 850 TO 700MB WAA SIGNATURE ON FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. WL CONT TO WATCH THIS DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

  Neither of those are mine. Is your area sheltered at all? IOW, do you get much wind or is your property protected by trees? If you live in a little opening amongst trees it allows the snow to stay fluffed up as it falls since your wind is less below the treetops. Also, any snow in the trees will fall downwind into your property too so you get a little bonus. I'm really exposed on the north side so I had quite a bit of blowing snow so the crystals were pulverized where I usually measure. On the south corner of my house I could tell it was "fluffier" where the pack was protected by the wind, but there's some blow off from the roof of the house too so I didn't want to measure there. I did a core out of the driveway this afternoon where the wind did a number on it. I had 8" of snow and 1.35" of liquid. So the drifting made the pack really dense over there.

I settled on 9.5" / 0.85". I just couldn't put it over 10". The actual depth out there is only like 14-15". That one was for you. I knew you'd get a chuckle out of that. :lol:

Even with the wind it is pretty level on the property.  We have 3 acres.  The house faces NW and is about 100 yard off of the street.  The back of the house faces forest.  The forest starts 50 -100 feet from the house.  There is a pond in the front yard.  A north wind would come across the pond.  There are trees on the other side of the  pond that are less than 100 ft from the house.  So who knows lol?  If you ever ride down 127 this way just have a look right after you cross into Webster.  

 

I asked a number of folks who live nearby.  All of them estimated over a foot.  One said 13-14 and another said 18.

 

Even if it wasn't 15-16 it sure as hell feels like it and looks like it!  Maybe that's all that matters... My starting depth was lower than yours.  I've noticed you hold snow depth better than me.  And there was a lot of sublimation today.  The fluff dropped 3-4 inches (or was blown away).  Anyhow this is starting to turn into a real nice winter and I will be in Savannah a lot in February.  Oh well....

but I'm banking on coming back to a snowy frst half of March.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

BML at -24F lol... while its a balmy morning at +16 on MWN.

 

Over in the Adirondacks there's SLK with -18F and Whiteface Summit with +21F.

 

When this mixes out on SW flow ahead of the clipper, do we see some 15 degree jumps in an hour and like 30 degree swings in the valleys over a period of 2-3 hours?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Yeah...it's pretty drastic. Around here...

Suncook River 358ft -13F

Here 614ft 0F

Gilford 1348ft 17F

Coldest I see in NH is -26H at First Ct Lake.

 

Good grief... that wins for narrowest inversion, haha.

 

I had no idea when I started my car and it was slow to turn over, staying -13F on the dash, that it would be 30+ degrees warmer up the mountain.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

I was listening to Roger Hill’s early WDEV broadcast this morning and heard that Winter Weather Advisories were up in the area for what is expected to be a general 3-6" Alberta Clipper.  Indeed the map is an interesting distribution of advisories, with an area out of the advisories stretching from the Adirondacks through South Central Vermont.  The BTV NWS forecast discussion suggests that area is likely to see shadowing that keeps accumulations down a bit:

 

DUE TO SHADOWING, ESSEX COUNTY NY AND THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL VT LOOK TO RECEIVE 2-4 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

 

29JAN15A.jpg

 

The projected accumulations map shows a lot of 3-4" and 4-6" areas, with pockets of 6-8" toward the north:

 

29JAN15B.jpg

 

The point forecast here in our location is fairly similar to yesterday evening's, coming in with a range of 3-7".

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Super shallow inversion this moning. The sheltered valleys are all easily -10F or colder. Move up just a bit and you're above zero.

-1 here.

 

not too uneccessarily prolong our snow depth convo, as I'm sure you are ready for tonight and tomorrow, the one place I would challenge  you is your ratio.   If you got .85 liquid you should have gotten at least a foot of snow.  Snow growth here was very good, actually all day.  No sand here.  And in the afternoon during the heavy 3-4 hour burst (which I assume you got), the ratios had to be between 15 and 20:1.  It was nice size flakes and  very fluffy. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

-1 here.

not too uneccessarily prolong our snow depth convo, as I'm sure you are ready for tonight and tomorrow, the one place I would challenge you is your ratio. If you got .85 liquid you should have gotten at least a foot of snow. Snow growth here was very good, actually all day. No sand here. And in the afternoon during the heavy 3-4 hour burst (which I assume you got), the ratios had to be between 15 and 20:1. It was nice size flakes and very fluffy.

Well that's why I asked how sheltered you were. My ratios sucked in the morning from the BLSN. My first measurement was like 4" with 0.55" liquid. I ended up scrapping that sample. Snow growth is fine until the crystals get pulverized on the ground. Winds let up a bit during the afternoon so the density decreased.

The 8" sample in my driveway 24hrs later was 1.35", but I don't count that liquid total.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Well that's why I asked how sheltered you were. My ratios sucked in the morning from the BLSN. My first measurement was like 4" with 0.55" liquid. I ended up scrapping that sample. Snow growth is fine until the crystals get pulverized on the ground. Winds let up a bit during the afternoon so the density decreased.

The 8" sample in my driveway 24hrs later was 1.35", but I don't count that liquid total.

Ah....I am sheltered in every direction except W and NW.  But even on the hill in Boscawen it seemed to be piling up fast in the afternoon.

 

 I will post a pic from that hill.   Ooops doesn't appear I can post a pic?

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