J.Spin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 As the NWS wrote this AM: OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES. Anytime a model goes against an "old rule of thumb" we really should take notice. Old rules die hard. I saw that text this morning as well; glad you posted it here. Clearly the BTV NWS took the right approach in holding the advisories where they were, so no changes in that map. The projected accumulations map has been updated to reflect the latest thoughts: It's actually somewhat similar to the one from yesterday morning, with totals tapered a bit in the northwest. Current forecast for our location is in the 3-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Snow started at home right at 7:30. Biting wind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ^ Yeah, just spoke with my wife at home and she said that there's a steady light snow falling now. Small flakes... As for the latest map, I'll be shocked if I see 6". Guessing maybe 4" tops and likely more like 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 00Z euro looked like a fun week though... a good 3-6" later in the week with the clipper, then a 994mb low over Boston at Day 7 with what would be warning criteria snows verbatim. Lots of time for that to change, but we'll have our chances this week and going forward. Especially if the cold backs off some in this stormy pattern we could rack it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Steady light snow started here in Barre about 45 minutes ago. I think I said a few days ago I'd be happy with the standard 4"-8". We may end under that but a little refresher none the less. Any gain is a good gain. As for the model mayhem, I think it was Hippy in the SNE thread who said that maybe the worst part is the crisis of confidence this bust creates with the Euro. I agree, who can we depend on now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The King is dead. All Hail the King. Many were burned by the Euro with this one. Thanks to Powderfreak and eyewall for keeping my expectations at bay, I did not pull the trigger on "A Sick Day, because some days are too good to miss (although I did enjoy a few of the sick day beer). The old EE rule is also apparently dead as well. With disdain for the new GFS and no confidence in the Euro , where is a weenie to turn? Despite the bust, I will take this January over the last couple. The clipper would be a nice finishing touch. Chances for more in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I can see it snowing a few miles east from the mountain but nothing here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I can see it snowing a few miles east from the mountain but nothing here yet.Actually snowing pretty nicely here at home. Nearing half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I can see it snowing a few miles east from the mountain but nothing here yet.Dreaded Worcester Range downslope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It is a sharp edge to be sure and should be entering this region soon unless it doesn't reach its western most point before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 snowing nicely on the bolton webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Dreaded Worcester Range downslope? It's been snowing now for a bit but nothing more than a dusting. I'm not sure at 3600ft there's much downslope going on from anywhere, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 snowing nicely on the bolton webcam It's been looking more impressive outside than it actually is up here. But the winds are howling. Flags are straight out and look like they want to rip off the poles. I think most of our snow is going to end up in Essex lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Meh. Bring on Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I just took a quick drive to the Richmond exit and snow began around Tafts corners and picked up at exit 11 to around 3/4 of a mile to 1 mile. It is now snowing very lightly where I am in Williston right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Meh. Bring on Spring. I want my 2-4" damm*t. Friday looks good for the NNE crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Visibility is actually quite low all the sudden. I bet we are moderate snow at the mountain now knowing where my visibility markers are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man this is horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's been snowing now for a bit but nothing more than a dusting. I'm not sure at 3600ft there's much downslope going on from anywhere, lol. Oh, I thought you meant in the village. Anyway, very wintry out today. I am home with a sick child so just stepped out to measure. About an inch and a half on the most wind protected area of my deck railing. Hopefully, it will be a steady climb to the magical 4" mark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Getting a moderate burst now and the wind in the valley is dropping vis to 1/4 at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Man this is horrific. Don't melt.... hang in there. Snowing real hard now here - are you getting that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Hopefully we've back burnered any cutters and warm ups for awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Visibility is actually quite low all the sudden. I bet we are moderate snow at the mountain now knowing where my visibility markers are. Visibility is actually pretty low here in Burlington now as well, with a lot of sideways snow. I'd say visibility is in ¼ to ½ mile range. A check on the cam at the house indicates accumulation of a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 MVL down to +SN. Hard to tell as I haven't checked any stakes but I'd say 1-2" at the mountain so far. Severe drifting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Looks like we got an inch from this band already in Winooski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12Z EURO is a huge hit here at day 7, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12Z EURO is a huge hit here at day 7, lol. at day 7! Damn, didn't get this one right at hour 7! Friends are already calling about Friday and Monday. I don't even want to look. Enjoying my 6" so far, right on the edge of the heavy stuff to the east. It wants to back in but will it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Band is becoming more intense now! It is pounding hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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