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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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As the NWS wrote this AM:

 

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO

EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING

THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN

EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST

HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE

IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD

SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR

EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST

HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH

BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS

OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND

EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A

FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

 

Anytime a model goes against an "old rule of thumb" we really should take notice. Old rules die hard.

 

I saw that text this morning as well; glad you posted it here.  Clearly the BTV NWS took the right approach in holding the advisories where they were, so no changes in that map.  The projected accumulations map has been updated to reflect the latest thoughts:

 

27JAN15A.jpg

 

It's actually somewhat similar to the one from yesterday morning, with totals tapered a bit in the northwest.  Current forecast for our location is in the 3-5" range.

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00Z euro looked like a fun week though... a good 3-6" later in the week with the clipper, then a 994mb low over Boston at Day 7 with what would be warning criteria snows verbatim.  Lots of time for that to change, but we'll have our chances this week and going forward.  Especially if the cold backs off some in this stormy pattern we could rack it up.

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Steady light snow started here in Barre about 45 minutes ago. I think I said a few days ago I'd be happy with the standard 4"-8". We may end under that but a little refresher none the less. Any gain is a good gain.

As for the model mayhem, I think it was Hippy in the SNE thread who said that maybe the worst part is the crisis of confidence this bust creates with the Euro. I agree, who can we depend on now?

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The King is dead. All Hail the King. 

 

Many were burned by the Euro with this one. Thanks to Powderfreak and eyewall for keeping my expectations at bay,  I did not pull the trigger on "A Sick Day, because some days are too good to miss (although I did enjoy a few of the sick day beer).  The old EE rule is also apparently dead as well.  With disdain for the new GFS and no confidence in the Euro , where is a weenie to turn?

 

Despite the bust, I will take this January over the last couple.   The clipper would be a nice finishing touch.  Chances for more in the short term. 

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It's been snowing now for a bit but nothing more than a dusting. I'm not sure at 3600ft there's much downslope going on from anywhere, lol.

Oh, I thought you meant in the village.  Anyway, very wintry out today.  I am home with a sick child so just stepped out to measure.  About an inch and a half on the most wind protected area of my deck railing.  Hopefully, it will be a steady climb to the magical 4" mark!

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Visibility is actually quite low all the sudden.  I bet we are moderate snow at the mountain now knowing where my visibility markers are.

 

Visibility is actually pretty low here in Burlington now as well, with a lot of sideways snow.  I'd say visibility is in ¼ to ½ mile range.  A check on the cam at the house indicates accumulation of a couple inches.

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12Z EURO is a huge hit here at day 7, lol.

at day 7!   Damn,  didn't get this one right at hour 7!   Friends are already calling about Friday and Monday.  I don't even want to look.

 

Enjoying my 6" so far, right on the edge of the heavy stuff to the east.  It wants to back in but will it?

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