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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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The models seem to do that a lot. I'm still not sold on this storm. The meso models are hard to fully ignore.

 

I agree I am not sold either at this point. The only thing I can say is the air tonight has the right feel with the veiled moon but not sure that is very meaningful beyond an anecdote.

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BTV's new map bumps totals up again.

 

26JAN15D.jpg

 

 

Thanks, I hadn't seen that map because my computer seemed to have cached the previous one.  In any event, this newest map is the most robust the BTV NWS has put out for the storm so far in this area.  Our forecast now is in the 6-10" range, although as noted, there haven’t been any changes in the advisory level here.  I've been watching The Weather Channel (impressive how many people they have out live in the field), and they've definitely been talking about how the projections for NYC snowfall have been going downward on some of the high-resolution models on the western periphery of the storm.  With all the hype as of a day or two ago, I wouldn’t have thought the forecast here would ever be in the same range as down there, but we'll still need to see what actually happens – the high-res data they showed that forecast lower totals in NYC also seemed to suggest lower totals up in this area as well.

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Any chance the EURO is overdoing it on the artic blast next week, I have a 5yr old who isn't gonna last long in sub zero highs in NNE.

 

I believe it is on to something and that it will get quite cold but as to the extent the run will verify verbatim I can't say.

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Here is my forecast for all those who have been asking for it.

Me 10"

Brian 11.9"

Gene 7"

whiny lava guy 14"

Powderfreak 5"

mreaves 6"

Whoo hoo! VT jackpot! Ok, north central VT jackpot. Actually I would be very happy with 6". A nice addition to a decent, if not tremendous, snow pack.
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LOL, I'm not even very sold for here let alone further west into VT.  All the schools around here are closed for the day.  At least it will be an easy ride into work.

 

Just a few tiny flakes flying around out there.  Dry air winning?

 

My brother down in Exeter, NH  and cousins in Chester & Kingston, NH should have a fun day though. ;)

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LOL, I'm not even very sold for here let alone further west into VT.  All the schools around here are closed for the day.  At least it will be an easy ride into work.

 

Just a few tiny flakes flying around out there.  Dry air winning?

 

My brother down in Exeter, NH  and cousins in Chester & Kingston, NH should have a fun day though. ;)

 

The storm is simply farther east. Epic bust in order for NYC and the Euro. Some other models along with "looking out the window" last night should have been a hint I guess.

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The storm is simply farther east. Epic bust in order for NYC and the Euro. Some other models along with "looking out the window" last night should have been a hint I guess.

 

Yeah, when I saw the fuzzy moon last night as late as I did, I said "hmmmm...."

 

Anyhow, we'll see how the day goes today--but yeah, you folks in the Champ Valley probably won't see much, if anything at all.  Maybe we can squeak out a few inches here in the east slope...

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Yeah, when I saw the fuzzy moon last night as late as I did, I said "hmmmm...."

 

Anyhow, we'll see how the day goes today--but yeah, you folks in the Champ Valley probably won't see much, if anything at all.  Maybe we can squeak out a few inches here in the east slope...

 

I expect little more than a flizzard.

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Just remember we've had some snow events this season where literally 80% of New England was pouring rain...at least in busts like this it doesn't damage the snowpack with pouring rain like it sometimes does for the far eastern folks.

 

That is very true and no meltdown here on this. Moving on to the clipper.

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This was never our storm. I feel bad for those forecast to get 14-18"+ who may get half or less of that.

I guess the good part is when we get shafted it usually doesn't pour rain.

As the NWS wrote this AM: 

 

OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO

EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING

THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN

EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST

HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE

IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD

SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR

EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST

HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH

BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS

OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND

EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A

FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.

 

Anytime a model goes against an "old rule of thumb" we really should take notice. Old rules die hard. 

 

Turning my attention to friday....that looks a lot better. Underhyped, quiet, clipper. Classic 5-7" along the spine. Ho-hum

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This was never our storm. I feel bad for those forecast to get 14-18"+ who may get half or less of that.

I guess the good part is when we get shafted it usually doesn't pour rain.

Ok then I must get a special booby prize. Forecast for 2 feet in the hudson valley and got a grand total of 2 inches. Maybe. Epic epic bust.

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