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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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Somehow, Jay Peak will pull off 12"

Wait for it... haha but yes they will likely get more than the other spots to the south, even as illogical as it sounds.

I hate when the hype machine gets going...it effects ski areas too. You hear the well it looks like only 3" but they said we would get 6", so it's probably 6-8".

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The clipper looks decent for an advisory level snowfall on the GFS and GGEM towards the end of the week.

 

My numbers are showing January snowfall currently running about 8 inches behind average pace, but it could certainly catch up to average and be ahead of December's snowfall depending on how these next couple of events go.  It hasn’t been a great January for snowfall, but it's already much better than last January and conditions on the slopes have generally been good.

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My numbers are showing January snowfall currently running about 8 inches behind average pace, but it could certainly catch up to average and be ahead of December's snowfall depending on how these next couple of events go.  It hasn’t been a great January for snowfall, but it's already much better than last January and conditions on the slopes have generally been good.

 

Yeah Bolton has been solid and far better than last year at this time.

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Just saw that. Wow, that's a change. As PF said, tough to buy with everything else saying less. We'll see.

 

Yeah I am not ready to buy it if there is no support but it will be interesting to see the ensambles (which I don't have access too).

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Posted this also in the main thread but I for one would not be surprised to the see the Euro happen, at least for the eastern half of VT. It always seemed like an odd depiction for me for the deformation band to swing quickly up to central NH and then stop there. I imagine it pivots further west and decays somewhere between St. J and Burlington for a long time tomorrow. Just a non-meteorological hunch based on seeing how these strong systems perform. Then again, I also won't be surprised if the highlight tomorrow night is that we were 'shadowed'.

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truth be told, I'm more invested in that also.  I'll take 6" on thursday night over a wind packed 12" on tuesday, any time.

 

The clipper looks great for you and for the weekend for the ski areas.  I'll be overseas unfortunately.

I'm sort of hoping that this storm is so big that my Thursday evening flight is canceled. If that happens I would reschedule some things and fly out Sunday evening.

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Well the 12z Euro brings the low almost onshore at the Cape at 36 hours with a foot all the way to BTV through Wed morning and a 40 inch contour south of BOS.

 

Yeah, I was noticing that when I was stepping through the 3-hour ECMWF panels on WunderMap® – you can see that area of 0.25" – 0.375" worth of liquid getting almost to BTV on the Tuesday 18 Z panel:

 

26JAN15C.jpg

 

As PF mentioned, there's banding that sort of sits back along the NY/VT border for another four panels as well.  Luckily we've got the experts at the BTV NWS to weigh in on how to balance out the different model prognostications; it should be interesting to read the afternoon update.

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BTV went with 4-8" here in Lamoille County, which I was surprised to see, especially with no Advisory issued.

 

Tuesday... Snow. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs around 13. North winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

 

Tuesday Night... Cloudy. Snow likely...mainly until midnight. Total snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Lows around 2 above. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

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They do have an advisory for 4-8" though from Middlebury to St Johnsbury.

VTZ004-007>009-018-271000-
/O.CON.KBTV.WW.Y.0004.150127T0300Z-150128T0600Z/
ESSEX-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-EASTERN ADDISON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ISLAND POND...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRISTOL...RIPTON
326 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HEAVY SNOW...FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY TUESDAY
  MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
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I am bummed that I no longer live in Boston- for a number of reasons, but good, interesting weather is primary. I now live on the Outer Banks of NC and, while we have interesting weather compared to areas close by, I really miss snow and blizzards.

By the way, I'm still reeling from the winter of '11-12. I'm so happy to see that you all are looking to avoid the possibility of a repeat. Man, that winter was brutal and depressing for weather lovers.

Enjoy the action everyone. I'll be lurking and trying my damnedest to live life vicariously.

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yeah we are now back up to 4-6 without an advisory which is odd.

Yeah BTV is usually pretty strict about staying to criteria. It doesn't impact the eventual outcome, but I'm surprised Chittenden and Lamoille and Orleans counties do not have an Advisory with these snowfall amounts...4-8" county wide. They have 6.2" forecast here, which should trigger the 4" Advisory criteria.

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I'd rather just have both.  I love mid-week powder.  Not so much a fan of weekend powder, haha.

All about perspective. Also, I'd head north for a midweek big storm, but there was no way I could go this week under any circumstances. So I'm glad not to feel I'm missing out. Plus, I'm forecasted to get smoked here at home. Which is nice. Might be the first day since ski season started that I stay in bed past 7 or maybe I'll have to go out an take a walk in the blizzard.

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