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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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All the obs from today's SNE snowfall sound like just about all of mine so far this year. 4-6" of heavy, wet stuff. I'm alright not getting the full on blizzard in this next one but would like a perfunctory 4-8". Keep things nice and bright and keep the winter rolling right along.

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Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.05" L.E.

 

I was heading into Burlington this evening around 7:45 P.M. when I first saw flakes somewhere in the Bolton area, and those continued until around Richmond.  Once in the Champlain Valley there was very little going on, but there was a slight mist of rain, which was consistent with what the BTV NWS said might happen at the very start of the snowfall.  I was attending an event at August First, and when I came back out a bit after 9:00 P.M. there was a steady light snow falling and there had already been a few tenths of an inch of accumulation on most surfaces.  That intensity was pretty consistent all the way back home to Waterbury, and continued this evening to reveal 0.9" by midnight.  The radar does indicate that there's more snowfall upstream, so there may be some additional accumulation to report in the morning.

 

25JAN15A.gif

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 18.0

Snow Density: 5.6% H2O

Temperature: 28.6 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 7.5"

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Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.10" L.E.

 

We picked up another 1.0" since midnight, and it looks like that will do it for this event.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 21.2 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 8.5"

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posting in this thread since it will be buried in the other one. 18Z GFS really cuts qpf up here. I'm barely in the .75 line. It always seems like my ceiling amount with storms is 13". Maybe I can break that.

 

posting in this thread since it will be buried in the other one. 18Z GFS really cuts qpf up here. I'm barely in the .75 line. It always seems like my ceiling amount with storms is 13". Maybe I can break that.

Wish I could say something truly intelligent but I think you should consider that GYX is thinking 15:1 ratios or better, that the Euro has consistently had much higher up there, and that it is the somewhat unproven GFS.  Also consider that this is a dynamic storm with much still to be figured out.

 

Then, you should pack and book yourself at a hotel in Portsmouth.

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Well, it looks like we've got another storm on the way; the latest BTV NWS advisories map is below:

 

25JAN15A.jpg

 

Here in Washington County we're currently under a Winter Storm Watch, as presumably the projected amounts and timing of snow are not to the point where the NWS needs to put a Winter Storm Warning into effect:

 

BASED ON MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN TERMS OF WHERE THE SNOW WILL FALL ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY I`VE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH OVER CENTRAL VERMONT INTO NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH INCLUDES ESSEX/CALEDONIA/WASHINGTON AND ADDISON COUNTIES AND IS IN EFFECT FROM 7PM MONDAY THROUGH 1AM WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE THROUGH THIS AREA. WITH WINDS AT 850MB OUT OF THE NORTHEAST EXPECT THERE TO BE A REDUCED AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO SHADOWING BY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

 

As noted above, accumulations around here are expected to be in the 4" to 8" range, with higher totals as one moves to the southeast:

 

25JAN15B.jpg

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Sat night/Sunday am ....is a classic cold front dropping in from the N/W that over performs in Nor. VT with the passage of the -10c isotherm at 850.  I see 4-6" from that above 2500ft.

 

4km WRF shows .5" qpf 7pm to 7a 1/24 to 1/25 centered along the spine. There you go - 6"

 

I'd say that pretty much worked out; totals topped out in the 4-6" range for the spine of the Northern Greens.  The north to south listing of available snowfall totals from this event is below for the Vermont ski areas:

 

Jay Peak: 6”

Burke: 2”

Smuggler’s Notch: 2”

Stowe: 3”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Mad River Glen: T”

Sugarbush: 2”

Middlebury: 1”

Suicide Six: 0”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 2”

Magic Mountain: 2.5”

Stratton: 2”

Mount Snow: 1”

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It is looking like BTV is slowly bringing those lower amounts south and east a bit. I still think there is a chance we may be nearly blanked here but we shall see. It will be close.

 

It does look like snowfall projections have shifted a bit to the southeast when comparing the previous map to this morning's one – I've pasted the new one in below.

 

For Washington, and the other Vermont counties that were in the Winter Storm Watch yesterday, a Winter Weather Advisory has now been issued.  For anticipated accumulations in our area of Waterbury, the point forecast has remained fairly similar and suggests something in the 3"-6"/4"-8" range:

 

26JAN15A.jpg

 

26JAN15B.jpg

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