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NNE Winter 2014-2015 Thread Part 2


klw

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Definitely the drawback of BTV in the winter is bare ground...its not unusual to melt out completely several times, as I'm sure you've found out. But I still loved living there, best small city you'll ever find, though snow retention is not one of the strengths there. Even yesterday's event was a solid net gain here, as it seemed not much if any of the snowfall melted even with the rain and upper 30s yesterday afternoon.

Yeah that is true although last year it had staying power. As I said in the other thread I hate front enders and we were torched out by strong southerlies.
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This looks interesting...

 

Wednesday...Snow showers likely with possible snow squalls likely. Snow may be heavy at times. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Highs around 9 above. Temperature falling to around 3 below in the afternoon. West winds around 10 mph...becoming northwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 30 below.

 

I checked out my point forecast after I saw your post, and I see 1-3" in there for our area, so that will be something to watch.  There aren't any huge systems in there, but it's hard to complain about the look of the graphical point forecast over the next few days; I'd suspect some flakes in the air with potential accumulation:

 

06JAN15A.jpg

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Powderfreak,

Can you repost that super menacing storm that swept over the spine last summer... The one with the shelf cloud of doom? It looks like you deleted it to free up space.

This one from moments before 50mph wind and hail at 3600ft? Great memories from that one, just chilling on the ski patrol deck watching it come in, then heading inside for cover.
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These are my favorite type of winter days. Cold, dim sun and a little snow falling. One caveat, I much prefer them when we have a deeper snowpack.

Same. Haven't been following some of the Jan thread, but is there any decent size storm (>6") on the horizon. Looks like the weds and Fri "events" will yield an inch if that, unless in you're in mid-coast ME. My point/click has no significant event through middle of next week. Happy we're getting the cold, but more snow would be nice.

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Same. Haven't been following some of the Jan thread, but is there any decent size storm (>6") on the horizon. Looks like the weds and Fri "events" will yield an inch if that, unless in you're in mid-coast ME. My point/click has no significant event through middle of next week. Happy we're getting the cold, but more snow would be nice.

 

Given model uncertainties in the beyond day 4-5 time frame, you're unlikely to "see" significant events that far out on the point and click unless all guidance is screaming for an event. Usually the AFD will give you that clue, but oftentimes high chance PoP (like 50%) can give you an idea the forecaster wants to say something is happening but unwilling to go with likely or higher yet.

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11F high with light snow falling most of the day. Just a nice 1/2" of snow to cover up the treacherous ice everywhere.  Skies mostly clear right now, or do you count this as cloudy?  Vis about 4 miles in pixel dust.

 

Next front looks brutal.  Would love to see some 0 vis squalls and 40mph winds as the cold air comes in.  Not often we have a wind chill warning here.

post-268-0-33472400-1420578358_thumb.jpg

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BTV point forecast for Mansfield calls for 1-3" tonight and 3-5" tomorrow...last weeks arctic front produced 5.8" at 3000ft so let's hope for a repeat.

Tonight...Snow showers likely, mainly between 1am and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -13. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday...Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy and cold, with a temperature rising to near 5 by 10am, then falling to around -9 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values as low as -35. Blustery, with a northwest wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

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Haha it was only a matter of time before someone found that ;). Sometime last year when the Ski The East guys found out I was actually trying to measure ski area snow in a somewhat controlled environment, they thought that'd be a good angle for a video. Their marketing guy was a snow reporter at Killington, Sunday River, Attitash and Mt Bachelor in Oregon...and Mt Bachelor was the only spot that actually measured snow with any consistency for avalanche concerns. But all other areas he said the SOP was going with your "gut feeling" for snowfall and there's a lot of "I think we have 6 inches" vs actually knowing if you do. Which is likely what led to most people including the NWS to be very skeptical of ski area snowfall amounts...because no one was or is actually measuring with any consistency, but just giving it an educated guess as they skied through it.

It can be a pain in the arse sometimes to try and be diligent, but I'd rather have firm data to fall back on aside from just eyeballing it or measuring in different spots everyday that may change with wind direction and the such.

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BTV point forecast for Mansfield calls for 1-3" tonight and 3-5" tomorrow...last weeks arctic front produced 5.8" at 3000ft so let's hope for a repeat.

Tonight...Snow showers likely, mainly between 1am and 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -13. Southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday...Snow showers likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy and cold, with a temperature rising to near 5 by 10am, then falling to around -9 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values as low as -35. Blustery, with a northwest wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Geezus, not fun skiing

  • A 40 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around -32. Wind chill values as low as -67. Windy, with a northwest wind 28 to 34 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • ThursdayA 30 percent chance of snow showers after 11am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 3. Very windy, with a northwest wind 40 to 45 mph decreasing to 32 to 37 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 55 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  • Thursday NightSnow showers likely, mainly after 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 0. Very windy, with a southwest wind 36 to 40 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • FridayA 50 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 13. Very windy, with a southwest wind 42 to 47 mph decreasing to 32 to 37 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph.
  • Friday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around -2. Windy, with a west wind 29 to 34 mph decreasing to 16 to 21 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph.
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PF that was awesome, great job man

Thanks.

Yeah going to be cold this week but it seems like a standard January cold shot...well below normal but not record stuff and short duration. Luckily it seems like only one or two days may be a bit miserable...particularly Thursday morning will be brutal. But again, northern mountains in mid January, it's sort of expected to some degree.

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