Hitman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 From BTV .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT COASTAL LOW WILLCONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR FORECASTAREA. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE ON THE FRINGES OFTHIS ONE...WITH JUST SOME SNOW IN EXTREME EASTERN VERMONT...ANDONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES. WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE SNOWSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. that sounds appetizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How is it possible that BTV thinks they are on the fringes, but GYX thinks this will only impact the coast and it will be sunny in the mountains... From BTV .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 336 AM EST THURSDAY...SATURDAY NIGHT COASTAL LOW WILLCONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR FORECASTAREA. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE WE`LL BE ON THE FRINGES OFTHIS ONE...WITH JUST SOME SNOW IN EXTREME EASTERN VERMONT...ANDONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES. WRAP AROUND NORTHWEST FLOW UPSLOPE SNOWSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. that sounds appetizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How is it possible that BTV thinks they are on the fringes, but GYX thinks this will only impact the coast and it will be sunny in the mountains... From what I'm seeing on the weather models, our potential snow up here during that period would come from the tail of a more northern system, or perhaps moisture from the Great Lakes, with the back of the coastal low providing some of the energy. There's really a big gap (most of NNE basically) between the precipitation shield of the coastal low and what swings through the northern tier on some of the models, so I'm not sure anything up here could really be called the fringe of the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sat night/Sunday am ....is a classic cold front dropping in from the N/W that over performs in Nor. VT with the passage of the -10c isotherm at 850. I see 4-6" from that above 2500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 From what I'm seeing on the weather models, our potential snow up here during that period would come from the tail of a more northern system, or perhaps moisture from the Great Lakes, with the back of the coastal low providing some of the energy. There's really a big gap (most of NNE basically) between the precipitation shield of the coastal low and what swings through the northern tier on some of the models, so I'm not sure anything up here could really be called the fringe of the coastal. Makes sense... probably just not worded very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sat night/Sunday am ....is a classic cold front dropping in from the N/W that over performs in Nor. VT with the passage of the -10c isotherm at 850. I see 4-6" from that above 2500ft. That's what I'm talkin' 'bout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sat night/Sunday am ....is a classic cold front dropping in from the N/W that over performs in Nor. VT with the passage of the -10c isotherm at 850. I see 4-6" from that above 2500ft. 4km WRF shows .5" qpf 7pm to 7a 1/24 to 1/25 centered along the spine. There you go - 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 4km WRF shows .5" qpf 7pm to 7a 1/24 to 1/25 centered along the spine. There you go - 6" Yeah that has potential. A lot of the global models keying in on the Jay Peak area but I think it'll stretch down the Spine a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GYX zone of 2-4 for CON doesn't match map of 4-6. I would consider 4 inches a win and 6 a pure delight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Event totals: 0.4” Snow/0.01" L.E. I was checking the snow stake and heading off to work this morning, but was surprised to see a steady light snow falling, so I had to make some time for analyses. I obviously wasn't anticipating any sort of snow this morning, and had no clue where it was coming from, but a quick look at the BTV NWS forecast discussion indicates that it's from warm air advection and moisture from the Great Lakes: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 637 AM EST FRIDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING It's very dry snow, thanks to flakes in the 5-15 mm range, and the moisture flow is visible on the local radar: Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 6.4 F Sky: Light Snow (5-15 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 7.0" With the large flakes, another 0.5" had already accumulated on the snowboards by the time I was leaving, and the intensity of the snowfall had increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Some nice unexpected mood snow here at Bretton Woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Coming up to ski Jay Peak Thurs 29th-Sat31st.I know it's a ways out there but I see Burlington talking about a low pressure possibly coming in from the northern great Lakes thurs.Any locals have a better handle on these types of systems? Can they deliver a good dump of Snow at Jay that I always hear about when everyone else has half the amount? Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice catch J.Spin... I've been surprised at the persistent light snow this morning. Huge flakes. Not much in the way of accumulation because its blowing around a bit on the mountain, but I'm sure if we had a completely calm environment we'd probably be near an inch or more with the size of these flakes if they could stack up undisturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah that has potential. A lot of the global models keying in on the Jay Peak area but I think it'll stretch down the Spine a bit. yes. please stretch down. more than a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Coming up to ski Jay Peak Thurs 29th-Sat31st.I know it's a ways out there but I see Burlington talking about a low pressure possibly coming in from the northern great Lakes thurs.Any locals have a better handle on these types of systems? Can they deliver a good dump of Snow at Jay that I always hear about when everyone else has half the amount? Thanks!! Oh you'll almost certainly hear about twice as much snow as anyone else. Let us know what you actually see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It was definitely a nice surprise flizzard this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn, look at the 18Z NAM. Every run is another tick west. Maybe some real snow tomorrow for Central sections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Damn, look at the 18Z NAM. Every run is another tick west. Maybe some real snow tomorrow for Central sections? I hope so. The one weekend I'll be up in Ellsworth to ski at Cannon its snowing at home....that how it always seems to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 From J.Spin and I over towards you and north to kml, its been winter as winter should be so far. Nothing epic, but certainly not poor. Just a good average winter for north-central VT, which is plenty of winter. I've been thinking that in recent years, that it'll feel pretty darn wintery if we get a solid average season after some of the recent years. You can throw me in that mix too. I'd say we're pretty close to normal snowfall-wise, snowpack-wise, frost depth-wise, lake ice-wise and temperature-wise. ~45" for the season, 12" otg (yeah, high density stuff), 12" of ground frost, a -25F a -20F and several -10Fs in the books and about a foot of ice on the lake. Sounds like winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 You can throw me in that mix too. I'd say we're pretty close to normal snowfall-wise, snowpack-wise, frost depth-wise, lake ice-wise and temperature-wise. ~45" for the season, 12" otg (yeah, high density stuff), 12" of ground frost, a -25F a -20F and several -10Fs in the books and about a foot of ice on the lake. Sounds like winter to me. Yeah I figured your area had been doing well, too...though I know you've probably been quite busy with the addition this winter. Hope all is well with the little one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hoping for some nice dim sun up here from the SNE storm this weekend. As we've been discussing, it's been an ok winter so far, so missing out on this one doesn't hurt as much as it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.01" L.E. As I suspected might be the case with potential sublimation of such fluffy snow, as of this evening I was only able to get a trace of liquid out of the additional 0.5" that fell this morning. Details from the 7:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.5 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 20.8 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 7.0" It sounds like the next opportunity for snow is tomorrow night; the point forecast calls for about an inch here, although more in the higher elevations as adk has mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Hoping for some nice dim sun up here from the SNE storm this weekend. As we've been discussing, it's been an ok winter so far, so missing out on this one doesn't hurt as much as it could. later Nov through December up until the Grinch storm were solid. Hopefully we can turn it around again in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 later Nov through December up until the Grinch storm were solid. Hopefully we can turn it around again in Feb.Been much better on this side of the state. As Allenson pointed out, although not spectacular, it's been steady as she goes and we're in ok shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 wow, look at that 84 panel on the 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 wow, look at that 84 panel on the 12z nam Not invested We're getting brushed by the storm today over here near the coast. Clumps of snow drifting down ... hoping to score a 3-spot out of this and we'll see what the early week storm has in store for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Enjoyed my 1" of snow. Nice refresher. Server is going to get a run for its money with the Tuesday threat. Hope the mod's can keep the banter to a minimum as there will be pages and pages to sift through. Hope C/NNE is not too far north as has been so many cases. Fun to watch it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Enjoyed my 1" of snow. Nice refresher. Server is going to get a run for its money with the Tuesday threat. Hope the mod's can keep the banter to a minimum as there will be pages and pages to sift through. Hope C/NNE is not too far north as has been so many cases. Fun to watch it unfold. As of now it looks like we squeeze out a few hundredths if we are lucky. Looks like another miss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 As of now it looks like we squeeze out a few hundredths if we are lucky. Looks like another miss here. Congrats in advance for when the deformation rots over you. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 3.5" new -- 0.18" w.e. for the day. Not bad considering how the 00z models swept the rug out from under me. Tues looks big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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