J.Spin Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Snow blew into the area a little while ago; it's very dark here in Burlington with visibility around ¼ to ½ mile and flakes up to 15-20 mm in diameter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Ended with 1" yesterday. Looks wintery out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Got pics/video of that squall that came through. It was pretty impressive. Down to around 1/4 mile here at its peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It is incredibly dark up here at the mountain and it is pounding. Visibility is really low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 As it rolled through here around 8:15am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nice moderate snow here in St. J. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 what a kick in the teeth if the upcoming storm is a rainer. Hard to believe that in the heart of winter we can get RA, especially since we'll be bookended by plenty of cold. What a terrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 looking better this morning, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Bright sun and nicely missing every squall so far. BUT look at the 12Z GFS compared to the 6Z run. What the hell. Goes from .10qpf to 2 to 3 inches of qpf for us up here. Heavy rain/ heavy snow, I have no idea what will happen. Very confusing model runs for us. Anyone with more Met experience than me want to chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 We've picked up 2" at both 1500ft and 3000ft in snow squalls today. Great skiing out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 Temp at home dropped from 25 to 15 between 10 am and noon. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KVTPEACH2#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nice squalls came through the Lincoln, Thorton, Campton area to just north of Plymouth. Others developed and moved over me. Got a quick 1/4" with 1/4 mile vis. Glad you guys in VT got some real stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 lame squall came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Flurry at 12:30 here in AUG, then a short but intense squall about 1:10. Went from nothing to <100 yd visibility in about 15 seconds, with gusts 30+, though the best lasted only about 2 minutes. Words fail in trying to describe the horribility of the 12z gfs. RUM qpf has gone from 1"+ yesterday (with snow-able temps) to 0.06" on the 06z to 3.3" at 37-40 on the 12z run. 2" to 3.5" throughout N&W Maine, maybe a covering of bye-bye snow at the end, but 3" RA in 15 hr during midwinter is a recipe for serious hydro issues. I'm trusting (wishcasting) that it won't happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Flurry at 12:30 here in AUG, then a short but intense squall about 1:10. Went from nothing to <100 yd visibility in about 15 seconds, with gusts 30+, though the best lasted only about 2 minutes. Words fail in trying to describe the horribility of the 12z gfs. RUM qpf has gone from 1"+ yesterday (with snow-able temps) to 0.06" on the 06z to 3.3" at 37-40 on the 12z run. 2" to 3.5" throughout N&W Maine, maybe a covering of bye-bye snow at the end, but 3" RA in 15 hr during midwinter is a recipe for serious hydro issues. I'm trusting (wishcasting) that it won't happen that way. Just like the storm a few weeks ago that looked to plague the mtns with 3+" RA, but ended up being less intense. This is going to be a real ball buster if it hits as modeled atm. We're one 6" storm away from doing some local riding. Be a shame to get fire hosed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nice little surprise at home, a little over a inch accumulation from the squalls that moved through. There was only about .25 in Montpelier. Always happy to overperform with snow, no matter how little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 no good squalls and now I just realized I missed a wonderful 45 mph gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Nice little surprise at home, a little over a inch accumulation from the squalls that moved through. There was only about .25 in Montpelier. Always happy to overperform with snow, no matter how little. Congrats Mr Eaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Congrats Mr Eaves any frost quakes this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Congrats Mr EavesLOL. Thanks. Congrats yourself on #14. You would have loved today up here. At one point I looked out my office window and could barely see the building across the street. Only lasted for about 5 minutes in downtown Montpelier but it had a very Windexy appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Event totals: 0.9” Snow/0.03" L.E. There was 0.9" of snow with the passing squalls here at the house today, which is about half of what PF reported from the mountain, and that's pretty typical. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.9 inches New Liquid: 0.03 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 7.9 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 7.0" The current thoughts for the Sunday timeframe from the BTV NWS are very similar to what Will and PF were thinking in the thread for the potential storm: .SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY PLACES HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST SUNDAY MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME VARIABILITY IN THE DATA...THE TREND SEEMS TO BE FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAKING IT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW...BUT LESS PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS VERMONT WITH THE HIGHER NUMBERS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 LOL. Thanks. Congrats yourself on #14. You would have loved today up here. At one point I looked out my office window and could barely see the building across the street. Only lasted for about 5 minutes in downtown Montpelier but it had a very Windexy appeal.certainly would have and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 any frost quakes this morning?no but the NY Times screwed this article up. Moodus is no where near Plainfield http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/nyregion/in-eastern-connecticut-feeling-on-edge-amid-a-series-of-small-quakes.html?smid=tw-nytimes&_r=0&referrer= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 5f here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 1.3" from the squalls this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 -10f. Wsw posted. 3-7" for my p&c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 -10f. Wsw posted. 3-7" for my p&c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 -1f. Too bad it'll be 40f on monday with rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Wsw posted. 3-7" for my p&c I just saw that – the advisories map is below. Winter Storm Watches currently cover most of Vermont and stretch into Northern New Hampshire and Northern New York: The associated text suggests general accumulations in the 4 to 8" range: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 622 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 VTZ003-006>008-010-016-172200- /O.CAN.KBTV.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-150117T1600Z/ /O.CON.KBTV.WS.A.0002.150118T2100Z-150119T1800Z/ ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-EASTERN FRANKLIN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE... ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH... ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD 622 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER STORM WATCH...FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AND IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAINLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. * TIMING...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME HEAVY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW ON ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS 12 BELOW TO 30 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW QUARTER MILE UNDER THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. The forecast discussion suggests something in the range of 6-12" in the Greens for the higher terrain with some upslope on the back side: .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 440 AM EST SATURDAY...THANKS TO NWS ALBANY AND NWS GRAY ON A WELL COLLABORATED TRICKY FORECAST. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ALL OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK UP THE EAST COAST AND BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DETERMINE EXACT PRECIP TYPE BUT WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF TRENDING COLDER IT WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY SNOW EVENT OVER THE GREENS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BY 18Z SUNDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE VIRGINIA COASTLINE UNDER STRONG CONVERGING LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL GENERATE AMPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL FEED DIRECTLY INTO THE REGION. AS THE TROUGH TRACKS NORTH IT WILL CLOSE OFF FORMING A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY EVENING JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE BY 00Z MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THAT AS THE FIRST PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL THE SURFACE ZERO AND 925 ZERO TEMPS WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION SO LIKELY OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN THE INITIAL PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT WILL FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKING AT SNOW INITIALLY. BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z MONDAY THE AREA WILL SEE STRONG 850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHICH WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE GREENS AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THAT WILL CONTINUE TOWARDS 12Z AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE GREENS WILL SEE POTENTIALLY 6-10 INCHES OVER A 12 HOUR WINDOW THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BY 18Z THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO WRAP UP. THIS WILL LEAD TO OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE LOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE OROGRAPHIC WRAP AROUND FLOW WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. BY MONDAY EVENING THE COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION HOWEVER UNDER THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREENS. I OPTED TO LEAN ON THE ECMWF AND NAM BLEND AS THERE WAS MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OVER THE GFS. THERE WILL BE A VERY STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENT PROFILES SUGGEST IT WILL FALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE NEW HAMPSHIRE/MAINE BORDER. IF THE TREND CONTINUES OF THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SLIGHTLY COLDER THEN IT WOULD SUGGEST EVEN HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED. I grabbed a copy of the current BTV NWS projected accumulations map – it looks like the sort that is just created from the data at this point and not smoothed etc.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Just looked at weather for the first time since last evening. What a hard storm to predict for my area just south of the whites. Grey Maines snowfall map goes from 1-2 to 4-6 in about a 10 mile drive. I guess all I can say to people who keep asking is light snow developing tomorrow turning to heavy rain at night and probably changing back and ending on Monday. Hard to see a rainstorm when its 7F at mid day but it is what it is at this point. Our snowcover has that thick glaze so lots of runoff into the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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