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Tracking One Of The Coldest Days Of Winter January 8, 2015


bluewave

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The models are indicating that the temperatures could fall into the single digits again

on February 3rd as Arctic high pressure builds in after receiving fresh snow cover

Sunday night into Monday. It's still early for exact lows, but the latest GFS has

a raw low of 2 for NYC and the MOS is at 12. So there is still a wide spread

between those two numbers. We will wait for later forecasts to refine the number.

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The models are indicating that the temperatures could fall into the single digits again

on February 3rd as Arctic high pressure builds in after receiving fresh snow cover

Sunday night into Monday. It's still early for exact lows, but the latest GFS has

a raw low of 2 for NYC and the MOS is at 12. So there is still a wide spread

between those two numbers. We will wait for later forecasts to refine the number.

The nam looks to have low single digits as well...nam was a little too low with forecasted temps this morning by about 5 degrees .
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The nam looks to have low single digits as well...nam was a little too low with forecasted temps this morning by about 5 degrees .

 

Yeah, the raw GFS forecast number this morning was 9 and NYC made it down to 13. So the final low was a compromise

between the warmer MOS at 16 and the colder raw.

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coldest days on record for KNYC...Max in single digits...

date...............max min mean

12/20/1884.......7...-4...1.5

12/20/1942.......8...-3...2.5

12/29/1917.......8...-6...1.0

12/30/1917.......2.-13..-5.5

12/30/1880.......4...-6..-1.0

12/31/1917.......6...-7..-0.5

01/03/1879.......7...-4...1.5

01/12/1886.......8....2...5.0

01/13/1912.......8...-3...2.5

01/13/1914.......9...-3...3.0

01/21/1985.......9...-2...3.5

01/24/1882.......6...-6...0.0

02/02/1881.......9...-3...3.0

02/05/1918.......4...-6..-1.0

02/05/1886.......7...-4...1.5

02/08/1895.......8....2...5.0

02/09/1934.......8.-15..-3.5

02/10/1899.......7...-6...0.5

02/11/1899.......9...-2...3.5

02/12/1899.......9....4...6.5

02/15/1943.......8...-8...0.0

02/17/1896.......7...-5...1.0

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Can anyone tell me why Upton boosted Tuesday's forecast morning low for NYC from 1* to 11*F?

 

The guidance shifted north today with the storm track on Monday so there will be less snow cover 

and cold Tuesday morning. It wasn't cold enough for single digit forecast on the 12z GFS for NYC.

The raw numbers have been too cold recently so they blended with the MOS.

 

GFS Forecast for 2-2-15

 

GFS raw.....8

GFS MOS..15

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