bluewave Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The models are indicating that NYC could make a run at the first back to back winters with single digit lows since 2004-2005. Annual low temperatures at Central Park since 1950: Year....Annual Minimum Temperature...5 degrees or lower years bolded 2015....8 2014...4 2013...112012...132011...62010..132009...62008..102007...82006...152005...52004...12003..72002..192001...162000...31999...91998...141997...41996...51995...61994...-21993...71992...111991...101990...71989...61988...51987...41986...81985...-21984...81983..41982...01981...21980...-11979...01978...101977...-21976...-11975...151974...61973...71972...51971...41970...31969...111968...-11967...41966...81965...91964...91963...-21962....41961...-21960...81959...71958...31957...01956...141955...01954...71953...141952...81951...81950...5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The -28C predicted for the 850mb should really get us to zero, but this looks like a quick hitter and there will be no snow on ground beforehand if clipper fails us. Therefore the potential is somewhat blunted and I will go with a low of +6F [ dp. of -6F] as indicated on IPS. Also note the tendency on the colder GFS runs to have an absence of precipitation. Latest run was dry. Also GFSx seems high at 12F and not compatible with the -28C 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The GFS ensembles indicate an air mass with temperatures 2.0 - 2.5 sigma below normal for January 8. This would typically translate into a single digit minimum temperature for New York City. The data is below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The -28C predicted for the 850mb should really get us to zero, but this looks like a quick hitter and there will be no snow on ground beforehand if clipper fails us. Therefore the potential is somewhat blunted and I will go with a low of +6F [ dp. of -6F] as indicated on IPS. Also note the tendency on the colder GFS runs to have an absence of precipitation. Latest run was dry. Also GFSx seems high at 12F and not compatible with the -28C 850mb. The parallel version probably is high and a worse performance than the GFS probably wouldn't be surprising. The current version continues to outperform the parallel both at 0z and 12z. Temperature verification scores: 0z: GFS: .829 PRX: .824 12z: GFS: .820 PRX: .813 So far, the planned 1/14 implementation date hasn't been postponed, even as a consistent and broad based performance deficit relative to the current GFS would argue strongly for a delayed implementation until the issues are addressed. it is possible that the "sunk cost fallacy" may prevail and the new version could be implemented despite the consistently poorer scores on most and frequently all the variables. Under the sunk cost fallacy, time and cost related to creating the new version (all of which can't be reversed, hence the term "sunk cost") would outweigh the verification gap in driving the decision to go ahead with the implementation. Hopefully, that won't be the case, but we're now less than two weeks away and the implementation date remains unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Didn't that 4 degrees happen at like 9am? Pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Didn't that 4 degrees happen at like 9am? Pretty impressiveThis early in January time of day matters little. By end of month and early February it's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 years with three or more cold waves that dropped temperatures into the single digits...season...Cold waves and days in single digits...1947-48...................6..........91960-61...................5..........91962-63...................4..........61967-68...................4..........81976-77...................4..........81980-81...................4..........71981-82...................4..........71987-88...................4..........51993-94...................4..........92002-03...................4..........6 2013-14...................4..........71966-67...................3..........51969-70...................3..........61970-71...................3..........71978-79...................3..........91989-90...................3..........51999-00...................3..........42003-04...................3..........82004-05...................3..........8since 1947-48 the most days in single digits is nine set in 1947-48, 1960-61, 1993-94, 1978-79...The most cold waves with single digit temperatures was set in 1947-48 with six... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 years with three or more cold waves that dropped temperatures into the single digits... season...Cold waves and days in single digits... 1947-48...................6..........9 1960-61...................5..........9 1962-63...................4..........6 1967-68...................4..........8 1976-77...................4..........8 1980-81...................4..........7 1981-82...................4..........7 1987-88...................4..........5 1993-94...................4..........9 2002-03...................4..........6 2013-14...................4..........7 1966-67...................3..........5 1969-70...................3..........6 1970-71...................3..........7 1978-79...................3..........9 1989-90...................3..........5 1999-00...................3..........4 2003-04...................3..........8 2004-05...................3..........8 since 1947-48 the most days in single digits is nine set in 1947-48, 1960-61, 1993-94, 1978-79...The most cold waves with single digit temperatures was set in 1947-48 with six... Last January was different compared to earlier Januaries with 5 or more single digit days in that the thaw between the early and late month days was so pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Latest SREF Plumes are tightly packed at a low of +2 to +8 on Thurs. morning, so go with +5. The plumes for Tues. 'snow' are more varied at .25" to 3.0", so go with 1.5". Snow activity for just 6-8 hours, with only half of the period probably good for accumalations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Seems like as we get closer the cold air tends to ease up. Upton going with 9/20 now on Thursday. EWR probably makes it into the low 20s and theres a chance most NYC stations stay above 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Seems like as we get closer the cold air tends to ease up. Upton going with 9/20 now on Thursday. EWR probably makes it into the low 20s and theres a chance most NYC stations stay above 10 If there's snow cover then they'll register lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 the latest euro continued to back off slightly on the magnitude of the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 If there's snow cover then they'll register lower. I don't think there will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Seems like as we get closer the cold air tends to ease up. Upton going with 9/20 now on Thursday. EWR probably makes it into the low 20s and theres a chance most NYC stations stay above 10 I like to use the nam for temps...it seems to do pretty well... looks like it has us close to 10 degrees already by 10 pm Wednesday night and mid to high single digits for Thursday morning.... keeps us mostly in teens on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I like to use the nam for temps...it seems to do pretty well... looks like it has us close to 10 degrees already by 10 pm Wednesday night and mid to high single digits for Thursday morning.... keeps us mostly in teens on Thursday. If the low Thursday morning is 9F, that will be two years in a row for the same date, Jan. 8th (in Central Park). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 If the low Thursday morning is 9F, that will be two years in a row for the same date, Jan. 8th (in Central Park). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2015 Author Share Posted January 6, 2015 The Arctic frontal passage tomorrow is looking really impressive. Very strong CAA and steep lapse rates under 700 mb may produce wind gusts over 40 mph with quickly falling temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Think we get any snow squalls/showers with the frontal passage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Think we get any snow squalls/showers with the frontal passage? I think we have a shot tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Think we get any snow squalls/showers with the frontal passage? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Upton just issued Wind Chill Advisories for the entire area tomorrow night with wind chills of -15 expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 6, 2015 Share Posted January 6, 2015 Upton just issued Wind Chill Advisories for the entire area tomorrow night with wind chills of -15 expected. Actually pretty rare in the coastal areas. Shows that this isn't your run of the mill cold shot. Could easily be the coldest or near coldest of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 both nam and gfs bufkit show snow squall potential with a small amount of CAPE. 18z nam bufkit for ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 Think we get any snow squalls/showers with the frontal passage? Squalls already showing up on radar to the NW of the region should arrive this afternoon. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 just like models can underestimate convective rainfall in the warm season i think they will underestimate today's convective snow. some lucky spots could get 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 just like models can underestimate convective rainfall in the warm season i think they will underestimate today's convective snow. some lucky spots could get 1-2" I can see a dark cloud moving in here from my NW. Looks fairly robust on radar. Should move over the NE corner of NJ and then into the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Would be nice if this can hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 Nam has temps into the single digits already by 10 pm or earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 7, 2015 Share Posted January 7, 2015 FWIW, there's a snow shower passing through the Bronx right now. According to the radar, it might clip Upper Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2015 Author Share Posted January 7, 2015 A very impressive squall just moved through Scranton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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