uncle W Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 my analogs from the top down...Average temperature from 12/1-3/31...snowfall for entire season season...snowfall/largest"...Dec....Jan....Feb....Mar....Ave... 1955-56...33.5"...11.6"......29.7...32.0...36.6...37.4...33.9...Had late season heavy snows... 1973-74...23.5".....6.0"......39.0...35.3...31.7...42.1...37.0...December ice storm and other snowy periods...late march snowfall... 1975-76...17.3".....4.2"......35.9...27.4...39.9...44.4...36.9...Cold January March snowfall... 1988-89.....8.1".....5.0"......35.9...37.4...34.5...42.4...37.6...Cold early...Big snow just missed in February... 1970-71...15.5".....6.4"......34.4...27.0...35.1...40.1...34.1...Cold Christmas to early February...Snow New Years Day... 1954-55...11.5".....3.9"......35.9...31.0...35.0...41.7...35.9...very light snows... 1971-72...22.9".....5.7"......40.8...35.1...31.4...39.8...36.8...warm start...Stormy February/March...rain/snow... 1999-00...16.3".....5.5"......40.0...31.3...37.3...47.2...39.0...warm start...Cold/snowy end of January... 1961-62...18.1".....6.2"......35.5...32.6...31.8...43.1...35.8...White Christmas...Cold snowy February... 1966-67...51.5"...12.5"......35.7...37.4...29.2...37.6...35.0...White Christmas...Cold snowy February/March... 1995-96...75.6"...20.2"......32.4...30.6...33.9...38.9...33.9...Cold snowy throughout... 1980-81...19.4".....8.6"......32.5...26.3...39.3...42.3...35.1...Cold December and January...March snowfall... 12yr. ave 26.1".....8.0"......35.6...32.0...34.6...41.4...35.9... 1870- 2010.......28.3".....9.0"*.....35.6...31.9...32.7...40.3...35.1...*largest snowfall average from 1890-91-2009-10 1980- 2010.......25.4".....9.8".......37.9...33.1...35.6...42.6...37.3 2010-11...61.9"...20.0".......32.8...29.7...36.0...42.3...35.2 record.....75.6"...26.9"......24.9...21.6...19.9...30.0................ record.......2.8".....1.2"......43.8...43.2...40.6...51.1............... the analogs call for temperatures near the long term average in December and January and above average February and March but all four months average below the 30 year average/normals...Snowfall is below the long term average but not by much...Chances are good for a storm at least 6" or greater...1999-00 is the warmest year but was quite cold for three weeks or so...1955-56 and 1995-96 are the coldest...1970-71 was cold also...It looks like a normal winter coming up on paper but one of the analogs will be close to what we see this year...Which one will it be?...If it keeps getting cool December might end up cold...If it continues on the warm side December could be mild like 1971 and 1999...Is it a winter that starts off cold and ends mild like 1955-56 and 1975-76 or does it start off mild and end cold like 1971-72 or 1973-74?... Other analogs might be added by Falls end...I have some hope the pattern of last year might show it's head again this year at times...This might lead to a major snowstorm and normal seasonal snow totals...TWT... ............................................................................................................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 my analogs from the top down...Average temperature from 12/1-3/31...snowfall for entire season season...snowfall/largest"...Dec....Jan....Feb....Mar....Ave... 1955-56...33.5"...11.6"......29.7...32.0...36.6...37.4...33.9...Had late season heavy snows... 1973-74...23.5".....6.0"......39.0...35.3...31.7...42.1...37.0...December ice storm and other snowy periods...late march snowfall... 1975-76...17.3".....4.2"......35.9...27.4...39.9...44.4...36.9...Cold January March snowfall... 1988-89.....8.1".....5.0"......35.9...37.4...34.5...42.4...37.6...Cold early...Big snow just missed in February... 1970-71...15.5".....6.4"......34.4...27.0...35.1...40.1...34.1...Cold Christmas to early February...Snow New Years Day... 1954-55...11.5".....3.9"......35.9...31.0...35.0...41.7...35.9...very light snows... 1971-72...22.9".....5.7"......40.8...35.1...31.4...39.8...36.8...warm start...Stormy February/March...rain/snow... 1999-00...16.3".....5.5"......40.0...31.3...37.3...47.2...39.0...warm start...Cold/snowy end of January... 1961-62...18.1".....6.2"......35.5...32.6...31.8...43.1...35.8...White Christmas...Cold snowy February... 1966-67...51.5"...12.5"......35.7...37.4...29.2...37.6...35.0...White Christmas...Cold snowy February/March... 1995-96...75.6"...20.2"......32.4...30.6...33.9...38.9...33.9...Cold snowy throughout... 1980-81...19.4".....8.6"......32.5...26.3...39.3...42.3...35.1...Cold December and January...March snowfall... 12yr. ave 26.1".....8.0"......35.6...32.0...34.6...41.4...35.9... 140yr ave 28.0".....9.0"*.....35.6...31.9...32.7...40.3...35.1...*largest snowfall average from 1890-91-2009-10 record.....75.6"...26.9"......24.9...21.6...19.9...30.0................ record.......2.8".....1.2"......43.8...43.2...40.6...51.1............... the analogs call for temperatures near the long term average in December and January and above average February and March but all four months average below the 30 year average/normals...Snowfall is below the long term average but not by much...Chances are good for a storm at least 6" or greater...1999-00 is the warmest year but was quite cold for three weeks or so...1955-56 and 1995-96 are the coldest...1970-71 was cold also...It looks like a normal winter coming up on paper but one of the analogs will be close to what we see this year...Which one will it be?...If it keeps getting cool December might end up cold...If it continues on the warm side December could be mild like 1971 and 1999...Is it a winter that starts off cold and ends mild like 1955-56 and 1975-76 or does it start off mild and end cold like 1971-72 or 1973-74?... Other analogs might be added by Falls end...I have some hope the pattern of last year might show it's head again this year at times...This might lead to a major snowstorm and normal seasonal snow totals...TWT... November probably ends up with an average temperature above normal...Nothing like the 1955 cold in sight...Or the 1970 cold...A slow start like 1971-72?...I think so and still think the best part of this winter will be February or March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 November probably ends up with an average temperature above normal...Nothing like the 1955 cold in sight...Or the 1970 cold...A slow start like 1971-72?...I think so and still think the best part of this winter will be February or March... liking 73-74..especailly with this warm spell.If i remember correctly Nov 22nd 1973 was in the 60's too..and I think that was Thanksgiving day that year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 liking 73-74..especailly with this warm spell.If i remember correctly Nov 22nd 1973 was in the 60's too..and I think that was Thanksgiving day that year . It might be 73-74/88-89 but with a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Unc, Looks like I'll have 71-72 and 73-74 on my final analog list also. It actually reads alot like that '70s show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Unc, Looks like I'll have 71-72 and 73-74 on my final analog list also. It actually reads alot like that '70s show. they weren't a total disaster...Both had over 22" for the season in NY...Feb. 1972 had a ku event although the heavy snow changed to rain in and around the city but inland got walloped...December 1973's ice storm was a major winter event...both had record cold in April with a little snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 from the other board MEI ANALOGS Sep/Oct value is in : -1.911 Closest actuals: 1975: -2.001 1955: -1.743 1973: -1.698 1956: -1.457 1971: -1.417 Closest trends (past 12 mos): YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT 2010 1.157 1.502 1.383 .875 .539 -.412 -1.166 -1.81 -1.99 -1.911 1988 1.129 .689 .485 .337 .09 -.685 -1.185 -1.369 -1.597 -1.346 1973 1.746 1.506 .878 .5 -.145 -.801 -1.07 -1.363 -1.75 -1.698 1964 .853 .456 -.286 -.61 -1.268 -1.087 -1.392 -1.507 -1.284 -1.209 2007 .986 .501 .125 .082 .175 -.341 -.334 -.503 -1.138 -1.133 1955 -.782 -.702 -1.151 -1.607 -1.637 -2.286 -1.911 -2.03 -1.815 -1.743 1975 -.555 -.587 -.85 -.93 -.879 -1.17 -1.504 -1.731 -1.867 -2.001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 from the other board MEI ANALOGS Sep/Oct value is in : -1.911 Closest actuals: 1975: -2.001 1955: -1.743 1973: -1.698 1956: -1.457 1971: -1.417 1955 was much colder than this year... .I like 1973-74 and 1971-72 as analogs so far...Both years had a cold and snowy February...Feb. 72 was quite stormy...snowfall was close to normal... 1956-57 and 1975-76 had cold January's...Snowfall was below average with no KU storms... No way will we see snow's like last year...We will probably see half the amount at best...except for 1955-56 the other four years didn't have half the amount of snow we saw last year in the city... well this storm was worse than any last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 NYc snofall 75/76 : 17.3" 55/56: 33.5" (21" in Feb) 73/74: 23.5" 56/57: 21.9" 71/72: 22.9" (17.9" Feb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 I remember that ice storm from 73-74 winter. Still think the worst in NYC since. Remember trying to sleigh ride..was like going down a hill of ice cubes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Those analogs equal a below normal snow season in the NW Philly burbs 1971-72 (19.8") 1973-74 (23.0") Unc, Looks like I'll have 71-72 and 73-74 on my final analog list also. It actually reads alot like that '70s show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 although December is starting out cold the ground is bare...since 1950 17 of 20 la nina winters had less than 25" for the season...85%...the last 100 years had 53 with less than 25"...53%...the chances are not so good and it doesn't look like we see any significant snow soon... since 1910-11.........La Nina years since 1949-50...20 seasons... T..... to ..9.9".....6............1 10.0" to 14.9"...19............6 15.0" to 19.9"...15............5 20.0" to 24.9"...13............5 25.0" to 29.9"...15............0 30.0" to 34.9".....8............1 35.0" to 39.9".....4............1 40.0" to 44.9".....6............0 45.0" to 49.9".....3............0 50.0" plus..........11............1 ..6 of 20 la nina years since 1950 had 10-14.9"...30%...The 100 yr average is 19%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2010 Author Share Posted December 9, 2010 some La Nina snowstorms that were all snow events....No rain or sleet involved (very little if any) or above freezing temperatures...A short list... amount dates 20.2" 1/7-8/1996 12.0" 12/30/2000 11.6" 3/18-19/1956 10.7" 2/16-17/1996 ..7.8" 2/12/1975 ..7.5" 2/3/1996 ..6.4" 2/1/1957 ..6.4" 1/1/1971 ..6.3" 1/10/1965 ..6.0" 2/8/1974 ..5.8" 2/22/2001 ..5.7" 2/5-6/1985 ..5.2" 2/23/1972 ..5.0" 1/6/1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 9, 2010 Share Posted December 9, 2010 1955-1956 is the better analog for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 1955-1956 is the better analog for the season. Hey unc hope all is well 1956 jumps out at me we had 2 events in 3 days my parents were married on st paddys that year . Kennedy airport was closed for a day see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 from the other board MEI ANALOGS Sep/Oct value is in : -1.911 Closest actuals: 1975: -2.001 1955: -1.743 1973: -1.698 1956: -1.457 1971: -1.417 Closest trends (past 12 mos): YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT 2010 1.157 1.502 1.383 .875 .539 -.412 -1.166 -1.81 -1.99 -1.911 1988 1.129 .689 .485 .337 .09 -.685 -1.185 -1.369 -1.597 -1.346 1973 1.746 1.506 .878 .5 -.145 -.801 -1.07 -1.363 -1.75 -1.698 1964 .853 .456 -.286 -.61 -1.268 -1.087 -1.392 -1.507 -1.284 -1.209 2007 .986 .501 .125 .082 .175 -.341 -.334 -.503 -1.138 -1.133 1955 -.782 -.702 -1.151 -1.607 -1.637 -2.286 -1.911 -2.03 -1.815 -1.743 1975 -.555 -.587 -.85 -.93 -.879 -1.17 -1.504 -1.731 -1.867 -2.001 MEI ANALOGS Oct/Nov value is in : -1.606 Closest actuals: 1973 : -1.515 1988 : -1.473 1975 : -1.783 (177) 1955 : -1.824 (218) 1971 : -1.311 (295) Closest trends (past 12 mos): YEAR DECJAN JANFEB FEBMAR MARAPR APRMAY MAYJUN JUNJUL JULAUG AUGSEP SEPOCT OCTNOV 2010 1.157 1.502 1.383 .875 .539 -.412 -1.166 -1.81 -1.99 -1.911 -1.606 1973 1.746 1.506 .878 .5 -.145 -.801 -1.07 -1.363 -1.75 -1.698 -1.515 1988 1.129 .689 .485 .337 .09 -.685 -1.185 -1.369 -1.597 -1.346 -1.473 1955 -.782 -.702 -1.151 -1.607 -1.637 -2.286 -1.911 -2.03 -1.815 -1.743 -1.824 2007 .986 .501 .125 .082 .175 -.341 -.334 -.503 -1.138 -1.133 -1.166 1975 -.555 -.587 -.85 -.93 -.879 -1.17 -1.504 -1.731 -1.867 -2.001 -1.783 1964 .853 .456 -.286 -.61 -1.268 -1.087 -1.392 -1.507 -1.284 -1.209 -1.221 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 29, 2010 Author Share Posted December 29, 2010 some La Nina snowstorms that were all snow events....No rain or sleet involved (very little if any) or above freezing temperatures...A short list... amount dates 20.2" 1/7-8/1996 20.0" 12/26-27/2010 12.0" 12/30/2000 11.6" 3/18-19/1956 10.7" 2/16-17/1996 ..7.8" 2/12/1975 ..7.5" 2/3/1996 ..6.4" 2/1/1957 ..6.4" 1/1/1971 ..6.3" 1/10/1965 ..6.0" 2/8/1974 ..5.8" 2/22/2001 ..5.7" 2/5-6/1985 ..5.2" 2/23/1972 ..5.0" 1/6/1989 it looks like the same pattern of heavy blocking last year and now this year delivered a few historic storms...the big snow analogs like 1995-96 and 1966-67 are in play now and the worry of a lack luster snow season vanished two days ago...I would think January or February delivers another blow but maybe not as severe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 it looks like the same pattern of heavy blocking last year and now this year delivered a few historic storms...the big snow analogs like 1995-96 and 1966-67 are in play now and the worry of a lack luster snow season vanished two days ago...I would think January or February delivers another blow but maybe not as severe... Unc, I think you're right and we do see at the least avg snowfall come January. Sometimes all it takes is one storm. Id like to see a stormy pattern ensue and perhaps we'll get more a taste of that with over running events. Th e blocking seems to e the caveat which levels the playing field with strong enso states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 31, 2011 Author Share Posted March 31, 2011 my analogs from the top down...Average temperature from 12/1-3/31...snowfall for entire season season...snowfall/largest"...Dec....Jan....Feb....Mar....Ave... 1955-56...33.5"...11.6"......29.7...32.0...36.6...37.4...33.9...Had late season heavy snows... 1973-74...23.5".....6.0"......39.0...35.3...31.7...42.1...37.0...December ice storm and other snowy periods...late march snowfall... 1975-76...17.3".....4.2"......35.9...27.4...39.9...44.4...36.9...Cold January March snowfall... 1988-89.....8.1".....5.0"......35.9...37.4...34.5...42.4...37.6...Cold early...Big snow just missed in February... 1970-71...15.5".....6.4"......34.4...27.0...35.1...40.1...34.1...Cold Christmas to early February...Snow New Years Day... 1954-55...11.5".....3.9"......35.9...31.0...35.0...41.7...35.9...very light snows... 1971-72...22.9".....5.7"......40.8...35.1...31.4...39.8...36.8...warm start...Stormy February/March...rain/snow... 1999-00...16.3".....5.5"......40.0...31.3...37.3...47.2...39.0...warm start...Cold/snowy end of January... 1961-62...18.1".....6.2"......35.5...32.6...31.8...43.1...35.8...White Christmas...Cold snowy February... 1966-67...51.5"...12.5"......35.7...37.4...29.2...37.6...35.0...White Christmas...Cold snowy February/March... 1995-96...75.6"...20.2"......32.4...30.6...33.9...38.9...33.9...Cold snowy throughout... 1980-81...19.4".....8.6"......32.5...26.3...39.3...42.3...35.1...Cold December and January...March snowfall... 12yr. ave 26.1".....8.0"......35.6...32.0...34.6...41.4...35.9... 1870- 2010.......28.3".....9.0"*.....35.6...31.9...32.7...40.3...35.1...*largest snowfall average from 1890-91-2009-10 1980- 2010.......25.4".....9.8".......37.9...33.1...35.6...42.6...37.3 2010-11...61.9"...20.0".......32.8...29.7...36.0...42.4...35.2 record.....75.6"...26.9"......24.9...21.6...19.9...30.0................ record.......2.8".....1.2"......43.8...43.2...40.6...51.1............... the analogs call for temperatures near the long term average in December and January and above average February and March but all four months average below the 30 year average/normals...Snowfall is below the long term average but not by much...Chances are good for a storm at least 6" or greater...1999-00 is the warmest year but was quite cold for three weeks or so...1955-56 and 1995-96 are the coldest...1970-71 was cold also...It looks like a normal winter coming up on paper but one of the analogs will be close to what we see this year...Which one will it be?...If it keeps getting cool December might end up cold...If it continues on the warm side December could be mild like 1971 and 1999...Is it a winter that starts off cold and ends mild like 1955-56 and 1975-76 or does it start off mild and end cold like 1971-72 or 1973-74?... Other analogs might be added by Falls end...I have some hope the pattern of last year might show it's head again this year at times...This might lead to a major snowstorm and normal seasonal snow totals...TWT... The average temperature for December and January were well below the 140 and 30 year averages and February and March were above the long term average but close to the 30 year average...Only February ended up above the 30 year average and not by much...The pattern of extreme blocking returned and it helped to give us a great snow season...On par with 1966-67 and 1995-96...I had my doubts in early December about how much snow we might see but 12/26 ended that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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