Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 A couple blasts of cold coming up...one early next week and a more intense one for the middle of the week, which this thread is for. Not looking like all-time legendary cold but certainly respectable and will be a shock to the system considering it's been somewhat mild thus far. Wednesday looks really cold around here. With 850 mb temps possibly around -26C and what looks like fairly shallow mixing (plus I'm expecting we'll have snow cover), I'm thinking daytime temps will struggle to get to 0 with better than a 50/50 shot of staying below 0. We might run into the same issue that happened last winter at times though...the ol' midnight high. Looking beyond, things look to moderate fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z MEX guidance for LAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Would be impressive if we could stay 0˚ or below on Wednesday. Guess it depends on if we get any snow cover...and/or if we get midnight high'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Would be impressive if we could stay 0˚ or below on Wednesday. Guess it depends on if we get any snow cover...and/or if we get midnight high'ed. You will have snow cover. You should stay below 0 most of the day. You will probably have midnight high of 3 or something like that. Still impressive for such a relatively quick cold shot. EDIT: I'm disappointed that Hoosier didn't title the thread Polar Vortex 2015. It would have drawn massive media attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 You will have snow cover. You should stay below 0 most of the day. You will probably have midnight high of 3 or something like that. Still impressive for such a relatively quick cold shot. EDIT: I'm disappointed that Hoosier didn't title the thread Polar Vortex 2015. It would have drawn massive media attention. I could totally see something like that happening, unless it trends a little quicker with arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Something else about this cold shot is the absolutely massive high pressure system associated with it. January barometric pressure records look to be threatened in a large chunk of the central US...and maybe even some all-time readings in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think you'll find most cold shots like this our relatively brief. Still, this will be 4-5 days of cold. Key is will there be reinforcing shots or a return to pacific air the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Don't see 1060 in the lower 48 much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The lakes will keep me relatively toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Don't see 1060 in the lower 48 much Yeah, especially that far south. Occasionally you'll see it in MT or ND...if ever. I believe that the Christmas 1983 arctic outbreak was over 1060 mb...but obviously that's rarefied air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah, especially that far south. Occasionally you'll see it in MT or ND...if ever. I believe that the Christmas 1983 arctic outbreak was over 1060 mb...but obviously that's rarefied air. Right. It's never happened as far east as what the GFS shows so that would be historic in a sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ryan Maue wrote this on Dec. 29th (looking forward to the high pressure that eventually reached 1057 or so, a few days ago.) Ryan Maue@RyanMaue Dec 29 Previous 1060 mb + high pressure cells (since 1958) over Wyoming: Jan 9-10 1962 Dec 24, 1983 Feb 3, 1989 Feb 17, 1989 Dec 22, 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 0z GFS 2m min temps for Jan 7-11...just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Thank god for the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 It looks like the lower 48 record for highest barometric pressure is 1064 mb in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983. ECMWF/GFS/GGEM/NAM all progging about 1060 mb for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 1062 HP over the Dakota's on 7th via the 12k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Parts of northern MN already approaching -25F actual temp....and falling. Last night at 6pm temp here was 30. This morning it's -5 and falling. Just brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12Z PGFS temp anomalies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 via the hourlies....windchill doesn't get above -25 from 3am 07JAN through 9am 08JAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Point has -15 for Thursday morning. With some fresh/dry snow on the ground and that massive high moving in I'd say that might not be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Point has -15 for Thursday morning. With some fresh/dry snow on the ground and that massive high moving in I'd say that might not be cold enough. If we can line up the area of significant snow with the best radiational cooling conditions, it could get interesting. Unclear how good of a setup it's going to be as some indications of winds staying up just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 for posterity sake.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z NAM is progging a maximum high pressure of about 1050 mb for STL with the 18z GFS showing about 1048. Highest on record for St. Louis is 1050.1 on January 7, 1968. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 For those who are interested, here is the January high pressure record map and the all-time high pressure record map for any month (click for larger images) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Thank god for the lakes. I agree!! Until they freeze over that is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 12Z 12k NAM with a 1061 HP on the north/south Dakota borders 15Z 07JAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Models have gotten a bit warmer aloft on Wednesday so not sure if we'll be able to stay below 0 during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 DVN mentioning the likelihood for wind chill warnings later in the week with wind chills down near -40. Really didn't expect to see such brutal cold after how warm Dec was. Was starting to think we'd escape the winter without extreme cold like this, but I was wrong. THE WAPSI VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE THE AREA OFCOLDEST AIR AND COULD SEE LOWS NEAR -20 WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDCHILLS OF ALMOST 40 BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. THESE AREDANGEROUS VALUES...FROSTBITE ON EXPOSED SKIN COULD OCCUR IN LESSTHAN 10 MINUTES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT IS LIKELYTHAT WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR WEDNESDAYINTO TO THURSDAY AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 we have a window with WC Warning criteria in my hourly P and C .. for roughly 8 hours...IIRC the criteria is -30 WC's for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Some -20 readings showing up now on the NAM early Thursday near the QC. Winds never drop off to calm, otherwise temps would really bottom out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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