FRWEATHA Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Mod snow here now. Everything covered. Wind seems to have veered more ENE than ESE as was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Radar filling in now over PA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 BOX 4pm discussion. 000 FXUS61 KBOX 032109 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 409 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY...BRINGING MILD BUT SHOWERY WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRIER BUT MUCH COLDER WEATHER MONDAY. A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BITTERLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 400 PM UPDATE... DIGGING SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL PUSH SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW TOWARDS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY INITIAL PRECIP HAS STARTED TO EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BECAUSE OF WET-BULBING...THE INITIAL PRECIP HAS FALLEN AS SNOW. IN FACT SEVERAL OBS AND WEBCAMS SHOW SNOW STICKING ACROSS CONNECTICUT. EXPECT THIS SNOW FALL TO EXPAND INTO MASS AND RHODE ISLAND. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED AS EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL ALLOW FOR THE PROFILE TO MOISTEN UP. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STICK TO THE SURFACES AS THE GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 32F. EXPECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR HIGHER IN SNOW TOTAL. OTHERWISE ALONG THE COASTLINES COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW THEN A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT... 12Z GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN 800-850MB 2-4C WARM NOISE PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AFTER 00Z. IN FACT BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z SOME GUIDANCE JUMPS 850MB TEMPS FROM 0C TO 7C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO SLEET SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE TRANSITION WILL BE VERY QUICK ALONG COASTAL REGIONS AS WELL AS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. IF TEMPS LINGER AROUND FREEZING DURING THIS TRANSITION...A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE ALLOWING FOR A TRACE OF ICE YIELDING TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THEREFORE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCRETION ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...A GOOD WARM LAYER WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO TRANSITION TO SLEET THEN TO FREEZING RAIN. BIGGEST CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY REGION WHERE SHALLOW COLD AIR WILL REMAIN TRAPPED THANKS TO MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH TEMPS BELOW 32F AND STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT...ANTICIPATE ABOUT 0.15-0.35 INCH OF ICE ACCRETION...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS MUCH ICE WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES AND DOWN LIMBS. LUCKILY THE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT SO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATE. GUIDANCE ALWAYS TRIES TO SCOURING THE TEMPS OUT TOO FAST FOR THIS REGION SO LINGERED SHALLOW COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER THEN WHAT MODELS ADVERTISE. BELIEVE THAT AREAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A FEW POWER OUTAGES AND THE HIGHER ICE ACCRETION...SO WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING. LASTLY...AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WARM AIR ALOFT SURGES NORTHWARD...A MODEST LLJ OF 50-60 KTS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAPE. HOWEVER BECAUSE IT IS A SOUTHERLY JET IS WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX FULLY DOWN. HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TOMORROW... MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE REMINDER OF THE COLUMN TO WARM ABOVE 32F SO THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL COME TO AN END. THE FOCUS THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE RAIN AND WIND POTENTIAL. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS ANOMALOUS SYSTEM WITH PWATS NEAR 3 TO 4 STAND DEVIATIONS AWAY AND 850 MB WINDS ALSO 2 TO 3 STAND DEVIATIONS AWAY. FOCUSING ON THE WINDS...LLJ WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE SW AT 925 MB STREAMING BETWEEN 50-70 KTS. HOWEVER IT IS HARD TO MIX DOWN AT A SOUTHERLY WIND AND MANY SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN INVERSION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. YET IT APPEARS THAT WE COULD HAVE HEAVY RAINFALL SO WITHIN ANY HEAVY SHOWER MAY AID FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHICH HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MIXING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POTENTIAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. THIS YIELDS TO PWATS CLOSE TO AN 1.5 INCHES...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST. EVEN SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWERS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN BANDS TO DEVELOP AND TREK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH MAY YIELD TO MINOR URBAN FLOODING THANKS TO A HIGH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS SURFACE LI`S DROP BELOW 0. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL ALSO YIELD TO A RISK OF TRAINING AND URBAN FLOODING. THE BEST REGION FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. FINALLY SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS HITTING CLOSE TO 60F. IF THAT DOES OCCUR THEN WE MAY MIX OUT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO GUST HIGHER AT THE SURFACE. Good write up. As some thought, ice could be a bigger issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Moderate snow. 30F. 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Have flakes, see how long it lasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 2" on the dot here. Snow intensity has lessened. Maybe another 0.5" to 1" before sleet invades. The roads are a bit messy, but not too bad if you take it easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 dry air eating the snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Everything covered solidly here, roads, grass, vehicles...1.5 inches or so. Looks very nice. Still snowing, although the mix isn't to far off I imagine. But better than I thought for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Mix line is quickly approaching HFD now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 2" on the dot here. Snow intensity has lessened. Maybe another 0.5" to 1" before sleet invades. The roads are a bit messy, but not too bad if you take it easy. Mitch--what's your estimate on the timing for IP? 21.0/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Mix line is quickly approaching HFD now.Yeah it won't be long for most of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wife just got in, 395 closed exit 96 North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah it won't be long for most of CTAnd then races to NH border between 00z and 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Wetbulbed down to 30f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 When will 84 close between exit 68 and 69? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Coming down at a good clip. Per girlfriend driving home from sharon, roads are a little tricky. Half inch or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 You can see the sleet now clearly in W CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Mitch--what's your estimate on the timing for IP? 21.0/19 For me, probably between 6 and 7 PM. For you, maybe 8 to 9 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This was a decent burst relatively speaking CT/R SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The changeover line made it past here about 30min ago. 1" otg. Biggest storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Hearing a few pings now on skylights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Cold though. 23.4. Hoping for some good icing before Summer tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 -S 28.1F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Cold though. 23.4. Hoping for some good icing before Summer tomorrow Could be a lot of IP and then eventually ZR. That second batch is racing in from NE PA. No doubt 84 will close by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 And then races to NH border between 00z and 3zlight snow falling here southie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 1" new past two hours. 28.9F with stiff E/ESE wind. I'm on borrowed time for snow with that wind direction here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 And then races to NH border between 00z and 3z lol you love the NH border lately. I bet the mix line will start to slow down as it moves north into the RT 2 region. Its not going to accelerate as it moves north, it'll meet more resistance, even in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Sleeting here now, but just got in my truck and we have 2 inches here. They called for an inch...so we doubled it lol. About 5.5 inches on the season to date!! Sure hope more snow is on the way for all of us in the coming weeks!! Everyone enjoy whatever you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Close to 2". Not too bad. See you tomorrow snow, oh wait no I won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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