BostonWX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Temp falling back even. 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 55f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 6C, 42/42F (back and forth) less fog now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 temp falling back 30.1F Temp never made it to freezing so the snowcover and trees are glazed. Still expecting a jump up this evening, it would be amazing if this ice is here to stay through the upcoming cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 temp falling back 30.1F Temp never made it to freezing so the snowcover and trees are glazed. Still expecting a jump up this evening, it would be amazing if this ice is here to stay through the upcoming cold.front should be near you. I wonder if you mix and get your high. Any precip to speak of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 43.3F Fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 front should be near you. I wonder if you mix and get your high. Any precip to speak of? Where's the front at this point? From what I can see it looks like it's in the vicinity of Oneonta, NY. Scott had said it wouldn't get through here until about 8-9. 31.1/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Paul's map is back up...pretty awesome look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Still 30.2F. Looking at that New England map I got to jump up into the upper 30's for a couple of hours. Just no way I could stay below freezing for this whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 So, at the end of the day, most if not all OCMs were saying yesterday "50s and rain, all this will wash away!" .. and NWS was certainly in that camp.. Which didn't happen for a lot of us, even if we maybe make it technically into the 40s or even (gasp) 50s for a very short period after dark, where it won't do much to melt the driveway. Lots of people will be cursing the permafrost on their front steps for at least the next week or so, saying "those damned weathermen..." Is it time to take a look at the models that we all know and love and do a serious look at where they fail in this situation? Or where we maybe need another model in the mix that mets can look at to warn that this sort if situation is in the offing? I know the NWS spends a lot of effort on model analysis and improvement, but maybe there is something that the New England met schools (and practicing mets) can add to the model/forecasting puzzle for our neck of the woods? /rant ...tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Still 30.2F. Looking at that New England map I got to jump up into the upper 30's for a couple of hours. Just no way I could stay below freezing for this whole event.Yeah we'll jump, but dews will be falling quickly. We'll probably lose the ice in the trees, but the pack will laugh it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 So, at the end of the day, most if not all OCMs were saying yesterday "50s and rain, all this will wash away!" .. and NWS was certainly in that camp.. Which didn't happen for a lot of us, even if we maybe make it technically into the 40s or even (gasp) 50s for a very short period after dark, where it won't do much to melt the driveway. Lots of people will be cursing the permafrost on their front steps for at least the next week or so, saying "those damned weathermen..." Is it time to take a look at the models that we all know and love and do a serious look at where they fail in this situation? Or where we maybe need another model in the mix that mets can look at to warn that this sort if situation is in the offing? I know the NWS spends a lot of effort on model analysis and improvement, but maybe there is something that the New England met schools (and practicing mets) can add to the model/forecasting puzzle for our neck of the woods? /rant ...tom Eh it's not like it's a high impact event except for the crazed minds of weenies. When the mesos had that look yesterday, take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Stuck at 43 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 So, at the end of the day, most if not all OCMs were saying yesterday "50s and rain, all this will wash away!" .. and NWS was certainly in that camp.. Which didn't happen for a lot of us, even if we maybe make it technically into the 40s or even (gasp) 50s for a very short period after dark, where it won't do much to melt the driveway. Lots of people will be cursing the permafrost on their front steps for at least the next week or so, saying "those damned weathermen..." Is it time to take a look at the models that we all know and love and do a serious look at where they fail in this situation? Or where we maybe need another model in the mix that mets can look at to warn that this sort if situation is in the offing? I know the NWS spends a lot of effort on model analysis and improvement, but maybe there is something that the New England met schools (and practicing mets) can add to the model/forecasting puzzle for our neck of the woods? /rant ...tom The hi-res models pretty much alluded to this. They weren't literally this cold, but there were hints to go lower with that mesolow. It helped to advect that shallow, cold air out of Maine all morning. Otherwise there would've been in-situ damming and the cold would've rotted a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 45.8 Fog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Had to laugh... Ryan's Davis is 34F right now while Kevin is near 50F. Valley FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Badly blown forecast in this area... Every model and forecaster had me at least 40 and I still haven't broken freezing. Low level cold seems pretty consistently underforecast in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Temp slowly creeping up, High of the day now 28.8°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This new locale has great CAD for the cp. 43.2 here, 49 mqe, 50 in quincy and randolpg, 48 in boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Eh it's not like it's a high impact event except for the crazed minds of weenies. When the mesos had that look yesterday, take the under.Pretty bad no matter how you spin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Pretty bad no matter how you spin it.[/quote But my point is when models which are known to underestimate it, still hit it hard, take Note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I mean c'mon, models are slow to react with a regular warm front moving through and now throw a low east of CC on top of it? Common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Eh it's not like it's a high impact event except for the crazed minds of weenies. When the mesos had that look yesterday, take the under. well, actually, it is at least a bit of impact.. Lots of folks heard "Hey, it's all gonna melt" and didn't worry about clearing things.. they don't see the mesos and second guess their "trusted meterologists" .. and lots of plowing contractors didn't plow.. so for the next week or two a lot of people are gonna have a reminder of how badly the forecast busted.. yes, nobody is likely to die.. but there will be a reminder of how the forecast busted 'yet again'.. so. from the perspective of the profession, it is important to learn and do what we can.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This new locale has great CAD for the cp. 43.2 here, 49 mqe, 50 in quincy and randolpg, 48 in boston Raise it 10' higher. It's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 well, actually, it is at least a bit of impact.. Lots of folks heard "Hey, it's all gonna melt" and didn't worry about clearing things.. they don't see the mesos and second guess their "trusted meterologists" .. and lots of plowing contractors didn't plow.. so for the next week or two a lot of people are gonna have a reminder of how badly the forecast busted.. yes, nobody is likely to die.. but there will be a reminder of how the forecast busted 'yet again'.. so. from the perspective of the profession, it is important to learn and do what we can.. That's more of a "weenie" high impact event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I mean c'mon, models are slow to react with a regular warm front moving through and now throw a low east of CC on top of it? Common sense.it's not that common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It's so warm out. It actually feels nice letting the dogs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Where's the front at this point? From what I can see it looks like it's in the vicinity of Oneonta, NY. Scott had said it wouldn't get through here until about 8-9. 31.1/30 I was looking at visible sat. But as Will mentioned earlier, we're not going to see a crash in temps. May even warm as it mixes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Had to laugh... Ryan's Davis is 34F right now while Kevin is near 50F. Valley FTW. Also got more snow yestrday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like the front is about to go through here in the next 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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