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January 3-4, 2015 Storm Obs/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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So, at the end of the day, most if not all OCMs were saying yesterday "50s and rain, all this will wash away!" .. and NWS was certainly in that camp..

 

Which didn't happen for a lot of us, even if we maybe make it technically into the 40s or even (gasp) 50s for a very short period after dark, where it won't do much to melt the driveway. Lots of people will be cursing the permafrost on their front steps for at least the next week or so, saying "those damned weathermen..."

 

Is it time to take a look at the models that we all know and love and do a serious look at where they fail in this situation? Or where we maybe need another model in the mix that mets can look at to warn that this sort if situation is in the offing?

 

I know the NWS spends a lot of effort on model analysis and improvement, but maybe there is something that the New England met schools (and practicing mets) can add to the model/forecasting puzzle for our neck of the woods?

 

/rant

 

...tom

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Still 30.2F.   Looking at that New England map I got to jump up into the upper 30's for a couple of hours.  Just no way I could stay below freezing for this whole event.

Yeah we'll jump, but dews will be falling quickly. We'll probably lose the ice in the trees, but the pack will laugh it off.
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So, at the end of the day, most if not all OCMs were saying yesterday "50s and rain, all this will wash away!" .. and NWS was certainly in that camp..

Which didn't happen for a lot of us, even if we maybe make it technically into the 40s or even (gasp) 50s for a very short period after dark, where it won't do much to melt the driveway. Lots of people will be cursing the permafrost on their front steps for at least the next week or so, saying "those damned weathermen..."

Is it time to take a look at the models that we all know and love and do a serious look at where they fail in this situation? Or where we maybe need another model in the mix that mets can look at to warn that this sort if situation is in the offing?

I know the NWS spends a lot of effort on model analysis and improvement, but maybe there is something that the New England met schools (and practicing mets) can add to the model/forecasting puzzle for our neck of the woods?

/rant

...tom

Eh it's not like it's a high impact event except for the crazed minds of weenies. When the mesos had that look yesterday, take the under.
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So, at the end of the day, most if not all OCMs were saying yesterday "50s and rain, all this will wash away!" .. and NWS was certainly in that camp..

Which didn't happen for a lot of us, even if we maybe make it technically into the 40s or even (gasp) 50s for a very short period after dark, where it won't do much to melt the driveway. Lots of people will be cursing the permafrost on their front steps for at least the next week or so, saying "those damned weathermen..."

Is it time to take a look at the models that we all know and love and do a serious look at where they fail in this situation? Or where we maybe need another model in the mix that mets can look at to warn that this sort if situation is in the offing?

I know the NWS spends a lot of effort on model analysis and improvement, but maybe there is something that the New England met schools (and practicing mets) can add to the model/forecasting puzzle for our neck of the woods?

/rant

...tom

The hi-res models pretty much alluded to this. They weren't literally this cold, but there were hints to go lower with that mesolow. It helped to advect that shallow, cold air out of Maine all morning. Otherwise there would've been in-situ damming and the cold would've rotted a bit quicker.
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Eh it's not like it's a high impact event except for the crazed minds of weenies. When the mesos had that look yesterday, take the under.

well, actually, it is at least a bit of impact..

 

Lots of folks heard "Hey, it's all gonna melt" and didn't worry about clearing things.. they don't see the mesos and second guess their "trusted meterologists" .. and lots of plowing contractors didn't plow.. so for the next week or two a lot of people are gonna have a reminder of how badly the forecast busted..

 

yes, nobody is likely to die.. but there will be a reminder of how the forecast busted 'yet again'.. so. from the perspective of the profession, it is important to learn and do what we can..

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well, actually, it is at least a bit of impact..

Lots of folks heard "Hey, it's all gonna melt" and didn't worry about clearing things.. they don't see the mesos and second guess their "trusted meterologists" .. and lots of plowing contractors didn't plow.. so for the next week or two a lot of people are gonna have a reminder of how badly the forecast busted..

yes, nobody is likely to die.. but there will be a reminder of how the forecast busted 'yet again'.. so. from the perspective of the profession, it is important to learn and do what we can..

That's more of a "weenie" high impact event though.

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