N. OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I would say well done to the couple posters that called out the meso low on nam yesterday afternoon. Well done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wow, NWS (and everybody else) really busted the temp forecast, at least for me.. they've already dropped my forecast high from 55 (no prob getting rid of the snow/ice!) to 45 (ugh, shoveling cement) .. I wouldn't be surprised if I don't hit 40 Time to get out and start digging.. 32.3/31.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Torch is coming now. Fog lifted, winds are blowing out of west and temp rising faster than I can type 36.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Fog is starting to roll in here in Bristol. I got a few friends in Wolcott and Waterbury and they said it's pretty foggy up there right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wow, NWS (and everybody else) really busted the temp forecast, at least for me.. they've already dropped my forecast high from 55 (no prob getting rid of the snow/ice!) to 45 (ugh, shoveling cement) .. I wouldn't be surprised if I don't hit 40 Time to get out and start digging.. 32.3/31.5 I'm with Will on that and I don't think the story is told in total ... still have many hours prior to cold fropa, and this "tuck" sort of pattern behind that meso-beta scaled low out E of Cape Ann merely delays...for the time being. Temps could still spike as that cfront nears, the gradient steepens just a little, and warm conveyor winds pick up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 4.5" of snow here in Bath with nearly 1/4" ice accretion. Current temp 23.5°F with light freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 HRRR says it does flip back to snow, but I'm not familiar with the accuracy of its precip algorithms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The former. It's foggy out, and the snow is going bye byesnow eating fog not snowfog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah. I understood it was a long shot, but the scenario for it looked ok at the time Thanks anyways Here ...I've just quickly drafted out charts to demo what is observed in the runs... The chart on the left below, is the 00z (12 hour) NAM position of features and so forth off the 12z run. The chart on the right is the 06z position of features ...same run. At the time yesterday this was denoted as "weak sauce" ...meaning the signal was there, but vague and not deterministic. This morning ... perhaps a little spicier is the crock pot, but I would still not get to giddy. The taste is still fairly bland. Anyway, you can clearly see a "lag-back" blossoming of the precipitation as the cold front has already cleared the coast. Moreover, there are about 10 to 12dm of thickness advection, and with that many isobars crossing normal to the isopleths, that means that CAA is for real. Here is the 500mb and it clearly shows at 1am (06z) ... jet streak passing west of the baroclinic axis (roughtly the position of the cold front), and it is culpable in what is exciting the growth of precipitation back west, as restoring mass is veered winds back up the frontal slope. Will's right tho - the boundary layer is too warm in eastern sections (as modeled). If that can somehow correct colder for whatever reason, that would be how to get some of that lag action to become snow. Otherwise, it's more cold rain. I would say, however, getting out to ORH Hills may be able to get an inch out of this. The NAM FRH grid clearly shows a new .31" at Logan, indicative of the ANA. ALB is .04" ... so quick and dirty differential has Amherst to Fitchburg in around .2" and hilly country there is going to be already poking above. Any other guidance and/or NAM being full of shister, notwithstanding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah that looks suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 And temps have quickly crashed again. Got up to 37.8 now back to 34.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Definitely more snow up in Randolph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 waiting for the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 snow eating fog not snowfogYes, I meant fog made of what was formerly snow. I guess it was bad terminology, but I didn't realize there was anything other than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 HRRR says it does flip back to snow, but I'm not familiar with the accuracy of its precip algorithms Don't know but I would say tomorrow could be LES streamers and squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Nicely done, John And Ginx, the LES streamer idea is pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Almost 6" of snow on the big hill, now with freezing rain at 3000ft and below. The inversion is around 3500ft...where it's now 40F at the summit but locked at 27-28F at 1,500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Im pretty sure we wont have bare ground after today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Trees still covered in ice nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 BOS NAM. The farthest right couplet is the 800mb temperature = 0C The middle couplet is the 900mb temperature = +1C The middle-left ... is the 980mb temperature = +7C The 31 is the QPF in bucket up through 1am (06z). There is very little/0 accumulated after this time, but ... envision west of Boston, out in Metro and ORH County, there could be more of a 040099 grouping for the thermal depth, which is +4, 0C and -1C respectively, and that is large aggregate snow if that is the case. It's kind of how to use the FRH grid to fashion events. 18031925011 -7210 042522 4307 01 00 and we're not talking much .. almost pettiness, but ...seeing as people live and die by their next breath of snow chances, we'll leave no oxygen on detected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Upstream Those towns in the red box are the ones I was born in (Camilla) and that my dad grew up in (Pelham). About 10 - 12 years ago a tornado killed 22 in Mitchell County. Missed my parent's house by a few blocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Still holding in the 32 degree range down here in CT river valley. The ice in the trees still dripping. Getting quite foggy, I'm really hoping that I won't regret not scrapping the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 That was really weird . Literally the temp was rising a degree a minute and then abruptly stopped and now nestled back down to 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 32/32 there's 3" of depth, the top 1/4" is ice. Crust is not sturdy enough to hold a 15# dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 That was really weird . Literally the temp was rising a degree a minute and then abruptly stopped and now nestled back down to 34 You're probably right on the edge of the inversion. Probably like 50F a couple thousand feet above you haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Starting to warm here. One of these days it would be nice to have snow OTG for 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 You're probably right on the edge of the inversion. Probably like 50F a couple thousand feet above you haha.Yeah that's what I was thinking. Now back to 35.5. Weebling and wobbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Pretty think fog's rolled in here over the last half hour. Temp hasn't budged. Nor has my snow shovel. 30.9/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 That was really weird . Literally the temp was rising a degree a minute and then abruptly stopped and now nestled back down to 34 Yeah that's what I was thinking. Now back to 35.5. Weebling and wobbling 1.5* in 15 minutes. You'll jump nicely once you break that. Get ready for your run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 4.5" of snow here in Bath with nearly 1/4" ice accretion. Current temp 23.5°F with light freezing drizzle.Always amazed by your snow totals and retention of the cold right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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