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January 3-4, 2015 Storm Obs/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

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I drive over mine and pack it down good with the truck. No exposed surfaces are allowed on this property.

That would be my plan, But with the wife having daycare here, Not happening, So we leave it as long as possible then scrape it clean And salt the driveway, 150' worth

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You shouldn't care if it rains and freezes, long as you got that plastic Jesus, ridin' on the dashboard of your car... 

Was crappy going to the party, but not bad coming home.  Plastic Jesus was on my side and kept me safe.

 

Ended up with 2" frozen in the end, mostly snow, but about 2/10th sleet/snow mix in there as well.

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We're mixing in a lot of our southern zones right now, but I wouldn't say warmth is racing north by any means.

 

The CC shows that ENE drift, rather than a concerted push north. And where it is pushing north the CAD is starting to impact how the warmth aloft is behaving. As it encounters the deep cold and the mountains it is wrapping around towards the north (like a wave would when it wraps around a point). Often this is where we'll see the warmth find a stalemate, and it stays quite wintry in the mountains.

 

That cold air may be fighting back too, just took a call from Wolfboro, NH and it's still all snow despite the mixing looking like it's overhead already.

 

post-44-0-09785500-1420349711_thumb.png

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Zr here. Haven't touched the driveway, will do it around 10am tomorrow. Made sure i did dishes, laundry, and took a shower. Filled up the tub after my shower just in case. Also bumped up my heat and lit a candle just in case I lose power. Steady rain at 25F kinda scares me a little.

Hasn't' warmed up that much. ...

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We're mixing in a lot of our southern zones right now, but I wouldn't say warmth is racing north by any means.

 

The CC shows that ENE drift, rather than a concerted push north. And where it is pushing north the CAD is starting to impact how the warmth aloft is behaving. As it encounters the deep cold and the mountains it is wrapping around towards the north (like a wave would when it wraps around a point). Often this is where we'll see the warmth find a stalemate, and it stays quite wintry in the mountains.

 

That cold air may be fighting back too, just took a call from Wolfboro, NH and it's still all snow despite the mixing looking like it's overhead already.

 

attachicon.gifMix.png

 

Ahh yes. Good ole CAD. 

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We're mixing in a lot of our southern zones right now, but I wouldn't say warmth is racing north by any means.

 

The CC shows that ENE drift, rather than a concerted push north. And where it is pushing north the CAD is starting to impact how the warmth aloft is behaving. As it encounters the deep cold and the mountains it is wrapping around towards the north (like a wave would when it wraps around a point). Often this is where we'll see the warmth find a stalemate, and it stays quite wintry in the mountains.

 

That cold air may be fighting back too, just took a call from Wolfboro, NH and it's still all snow despite the mixing looking like it's overhead already.

 

attachicon.gifMix.png

 

It kind of washes out to the southeast as hits the wall

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Check the temp when it's falling. A common weenie foible is to presume that 6 hour qpf output all fell when there was a snow profile. It didn't. An easy way is to look at rh at h7 for the time stamp on that map. It's dry.

There could be some upslope flakes for Mitch/MRG though.
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We're mixing in a lot of our southern zones right now, but I wouldn't say warmth is racing north by any means.

 

The CC shows that ENE drift, rather than a concerted push north. And where it is pushing north the CAD is starting to impact how the warmth aloft is behaving. As it encounters the deep cold and the mountains it is wrapping around towards the north (like a wave would when it wraps around a point). Often this is where we'll see the warmth find a stalemate, and it stays quite wintry in the mountains.

 

That cold air may be fighting back too, just took a call from Wolfboro, NH and it's still all snow despite the mixing looking like it's overhead already.

 

attachicon.gifMix.png

We've had quite a bit of snow grains mixed in with the IP. Without looking I assume they're forming in that cold layer below the inversion around H85-H9. Outside it's like walking through diamond dust while being shot repeatedly with BBs in the head.
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Deep deep cold..ftw

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. STRONG HIGHPRESSURE STILL IN PLACE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS AS OF 00Z. DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DIFFICULT TODISPLACE TONIGHT. HAVE SHIFTED THE TRANSITION TIME FOR THECHANGEOVER TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN BY A COUPLE HOURSBASED ON THIS SCENARIO. EXPECT TEMPS INLAND TO STRUGGLE TO CLIMBTHROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE GRAY...TOWATERVILLE CORRIDOR.

 

Boy if I didn't know who was working I would've said this was an Ekster triple bunner.

 

However, the mesoscale guidance does support this. Doesn't warm GYX up much above 33 until 00-03z tonight!

 

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Boy if I didn't know who was working I would've said this was an Ekster triple bunner.

 

However, the mesoscale guidance does support this. Doesn't warm GYX up much above 33 until 00-03z tonight!

 

 

Wow, Temps have not moved much here, We dropped from 18°F at initial start up of precip as we cooled down to 14°F and had moved up 2°F to 16°F and has held the last 2 hours here

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We've had quite a bit of snow grains mixed in with the IP. Without looking I assume they're forming in that cold layer below the inversion around H85-H9. Outside it's like walking through diamond dust while being shot repeatedly with BBs in the head.

 

And I just got a call from a neighbor of yours in Franklin where they definitely had freezing rain with the sleet.

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Wow, Temps have not moved much here, We dropped from 18°F at initial start up of precip as we cooled down to 14°F and had moved up 2°F to 16°F and has held the last 2 hours here

Usually the climb is slow until you flip from IP to ZR...then the latent heating gives the rise a boost.

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And I just got a call from a neighbor of yours in Franklin where they definitely had freezing rain with the sleet.

I just came in and there's none of that here yet...no sign of glaze at all on the side of the truck. 21.9F and climbing though so it must be close.

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