Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 3-4, 2015 Storm Obs/Nowcast


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Gonna be a better front end thump than many thought me thinks... Unless I'm missing something.. Looks like a nice period of snow

 

 

I'd prefer to see more solid/steady banded precip behind the first wave in SW CT and SE NY...there's a gap in the steady stuff. It can stay cold aloft for snow, but if you don't have the precip falling, it doesn't matter.

 

 

Jan3_2pm_Radar.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Regardess, we'll see how it develops because it could easily fill in. The models actually sort of show this happening between 21z and 00z.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Obviously you know this ... but it depends on fall rate. I've seen it start snowing at a 20F gap... Actually, I saw beeds of sleet bouncing at 45/10 before...

But, yeah, in general, the gap closes to about 80 to 85% RH and a few flits show up in the street lamp, or catch your eye and triggers you to look for it. Thing is, ...this has the look on rad and some modeling as "coming in like a wall" in style. Could be one of those times were at 65% you go from not much to 1/2 mile visibility in the time it takes to do your dishes.

yes. I was figuring about 1 hour for the better returns to make it from Southwest Connecticut to my location. 2:07 and I have not seen anything yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd prefer to see more solid/steady banded precip behind the first wave in SW CT and SE NY...there's a gap in the steady stuff. It can stay cold aloft for snow, but if you don't have the precip falling, it doesn't matter.

 

 

Jan3_2pm_Radar.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Regardess, we'll see how it develops because it could easily fill in. The models actually sort of show this happening between 21z and 00z.

Yeah radar sucks. Hopefully that fills in.

My last post was after I took a peek at all the hires modeling. Pretty much all in good agreement. Radar really blossoms in the next few hours.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

100 PM UPDATE...

PRECIP CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
2PM. IN FACT WITHIN THE PAST HOURS NYC AND ITS AIRPORTS DROPPED
DOWN TO A MILE WITH EITHER SNOW OR WINTRY PRECIP. PER WEBCAMS IT
APPEARS THAT IT IS NOT ACCUMULATING BUT THEN AGAIN THERE TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. STILL BELIEVE THAT ONCE PRECIP
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IT WILL BEGIN TO ACCUMULATED AS TEMPS
ARE AT OR BELOW 32F. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS STILL QUITE LARGE BUT
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT THEY WILL QUICKLY MOISTEN WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION. NOT SURE ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE AS THE BEST LIFT IS BELOW TO THE SNOW
GROWTH REGION. REGARDLESS STILL BELIEVE THAT A QUICK INCH OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE WINTRY MIX MOVES IN THIS EVENING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...