ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 1:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe not..but this one will. Anyone that thinks it's not going to snow on Tuesday with a low track like that and thinks partly sunny skies needs to seriously reconsider their hobby Partly sunny skies? We can still get little snow without partly sunny skies. I could see this as being overcast and spitting snow showers that are kind of disorganized looking. My guts still says we probably get an inch or two...but there's no way you can discount an uglier scenario right now. C'mon, you've learned your lesson in proclaiming solutions impossible at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: Partly sunny skies? We can still get little snow without partly sunny skies. I could see this as being overcast and spitting snow showers that are kind of disorganized looking. My guts still says we probably get an inch or two...but there's no way you can discount an uglier scenario right now. C'mon, you've learned your lesson in proclaiming solutions impossible at this range. If it was going to scooter north of us..I would say yeah..it's probably not going to do much other than a snow shower and fropa..But with the low digging and going south..I just don't see how we can't grab some last minute Atlantic moisture..especially with those torched SST's and throw back a couple of inches for everyone. How many times have we seen this where models show little qpf, weenies start saying things look terrible and then the negative posts start pig piling on top of each other and then suddenly an 18z NAM run shows .25 and then the GFS follows etc etc. Hey maybe this is the one time where nothing happens..but my money is that everyone has snow cover Wed morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 1:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It might never snow again. Just cold and bitter the rest of the winter. Evreything will go south of us,,but never grab any Atlantic moisture. Last snow was yesterday Come on, we can get a cutter or two along with that. 30.9/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I do agree most of us will have between 1-2 on the ground, not bare. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said: If it was going to scooter north of us..I would say yeah..it's probably not going to do much other than a snow shower and fropa..But with the low digging and going south..I just don't see how we can't grab some last minute Atlantic moisture..especially with those torched SST's and throw back a couple of inches for everyone. How many times have we seen this where models show little qpf, weenies start saying things look terrible and then the negative posts start pig piling on top of each other and then suddenly an 18z NAM run shows .25 and then the GFS follows etc etc. Hey maybe this is the one time where nothing happens..but my money is that everyone has snow cover Wed morning I think you need to understand that if we don't get good southerly inflow, it doesn't matter if this tracks south of us...a sheared out system will have trouble backing the winds to the S and SE in the mid-levels. So root for a less sheared system...stop focusing solely on track, it's not that simple. IT rarely is in meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:12 PM, ORH_wxman said: I think you need to understand that if we don't get good southerly inflow, it doesn't matter if this tracks south of us...a sheared out system will have trouble backing the winds to the S and SE in the mid-levels. So root for a less sheared system...stop focusing solely on track, it's not that simple. IT rarely is in meteorology. Well rooting as we know doesn't affect the weather..so with that..We're forced to go on past experiences and what SHOULD happen given the setup. Will that guarantee everyone gets 2-4? of course not..but it does give us a good idea that everyone will have snow OTG Wed morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 We need a better defined s/w for more than nuisance snsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 1:42 PM, CoastalWx said: You have a chance of getting maybe 2-3. There's always a chance, but it seems really low at this point with a more likely scenario being a disorganized snow "shield" moving across the area. I will take the under for now T-1" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Well rooting as we know doesn't affect the weather..so with that..We're forced to go on past experiences and what SHOULD happen given the setup. Will that guarantee everyone gets 2-4? of course not..but it does give us a good idea that everyone will have snow OTG Wed morning I'll want to see a stronger vortmax as it approaches the south coast to go 2-4"...it can happen, but right now I'd go coating to 2" based on the information available. Best shot of 2" in far SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:15 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: We need a better defined s/w for more than nuisance snsh. No such thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 It's crap. Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I agree with Will, I want to see a stronger vort max S of the South Coast of MA and RI for anything above 2" of snow. 12z NAM was pathetic, a 1020mb low south of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Lol. Scooter melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z NAM spitting out less than 0.2". Nuisance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Scooter melted I didn't melt, I am being objective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:53 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z NAM spitting out less than 0.2". Nuisance NAM useful yet?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. Scooter melted Yeah that was a mini meltdown. Prob saw the 12 NAM which is kind of ugly, lol. But there's no doubt it hasn't trended better. The more sheared look is winning out on guidance. We need the vortmax to hold together. It isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I don't even think the NAM has like .05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:55 PM, Bostonseminole said: NAM useful yet? Sent from my iPhone never truly is just pointing out what it shows which strangely is close to most other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:55 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't even think the NAM has like .05. where? I just tallied up TAN and it was 0.18", not that it matters any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Are we really worrying about qpf? I gotta step away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:57 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: where? I just tallied up TAN and it was 0.18", not that it matters any.18"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 2:57 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: where? I just tallied up TAN and it was 0.18", not that it matters any Just looking at the QPF output. It doesn't matter. This seems to be more of a HVN-FMH deal. Maybe an inch for the rest of us or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 3:01 PM, dendrite said: .18"?? Yeah I was wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 3:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Are we really worrying about qpf? I gotta step awayI think the shredded vortmax has been mentioned plenty of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 3:01 PM, dendrite said: .18"??. Let me recheck. Maybe it was still 00z run that showed On 1/4/2015 at 3:02 PM, CoastalWx said: Just looking at the QPF output. It doesn't matter. This seems to be more of a HVN-FMH deal. Maybe an inch for the rest of us or so. Nope it doesn't, nuisance meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 3:03 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: . Let me recheck. Maybe it was still 00z run that showed Nope it doesn't, nuisance meh. It was the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Pgfs for the win? Maybe will make some feel better about it going operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On 1/4/2015 at 3:02 PM, CoastalWx said: Just looking at the QPF output. It doesn't matter. This seems to be more of a HVN-FMH deal. Maybe an inch for the rest of us or so. I was saying 1-2" last night because the writing was on the wall. i got scolded by Will, but I thought the emerging trend was obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 When we are looking for thick provolone we are served shredded 5 cheese Mexican. Seen a bunch of these over the years, congrats Pittsburgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.