MJO812 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The 12z NAM has ~0.05" West of the Hudson River and nothing East of there outside of the extreme south shore of Nassau County. The 4k NAM keeps the steady activity near Cape May and then offshore. I think we'll be lucky to see flakes tomorrow. Most of what falls should be virga. Based on what? All of the models still show a coating to an inch for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 Don't mean to repeat myself but worth saying ...in my 33 years of following weather I gotta say clippers are tricky just don't believe what models show. .watch real time water vapor radar etc ..clippers are nowcast events IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Coating to an inch....end of story. Bitter cold and potential for late next weekend/early next week are the stories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Don't mean to repeat myself but worth saying ...in my 33 years of following weather I gotta say clippers are tricky just don't believe what models show. .watch real time water vapor radar etc ..clippers are nowcast events IMO. I agree with this., especially QPF output. The track is ok (not great) and snow is likely. We'll see how it pans out but I'd expect most to get at least a coating and some to get 1-2" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Based on what? All of the models still show a coating to an inch for the area. I agree. There should be enough lift with this shortwave to at least whiten the ground across a large area. 1-2" has a small chance of verifying, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 As I said last night, models ticking upward with this thing now...its likely a combo of both them having weakened the S/W too fast and now seeing the Atlantic moisture getting involved but now the RGEM showing more over NJ and coastal DE than it did on prior runs..parts of MD will easily see 3 inches from this...for us we need to hope for the so often tick north on these things at the last minute and some Atlantic moisture helping out. The RGEM has an inverted trof feature trying to reach back to Eastern LI as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 With ratios at 15:1 or maybe a little better, the difference between 1 and 2 inches is less than a tenth of an inch of liquid. It's fun to step back and look at the kinds of things we wring our hands over on these boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Based on what? All of the models still show a coating to an inch for the area. Look at where all of the omega is focused, you can see that it's over SNJ. You're likely to get some type of banding over that area with subsidence to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Even the 12z RGEM keeps the activity SW of NYC. The higher resolution models began picking up on this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Just like last year, the power of the PV cant be denied and is forcing systems a little farther South than was progged at say 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Euro remains the same..half inch to a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 .05-.08 on the Euro... .10 on long island towards Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 With ratios at 15:1 or maybe a little better, the difference between 1 and 2 inches is less than a tenth of an inch of liquid. It's fun to step back and look at the kinds of things we wring our hands over on these boards I see nothing to suggest that ratios will be anywhere near that favorable. Like I said yesterday, you can't assume that colder temperatures equate to indefinitely higher SLRs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I see nothing to suggest that ratios will be anywhere near that favorable. Like I said yesterday, you can't assume that colder temperatures equate to indefinitely higher SLRs. 700mb - 19 prob there . 850mb - 16 12 to 1 likely 15 to 1 not impossible in spots . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 700mb - 19 prob there . 850mb - 16 12 to 1 likely 15 to 1 not impossible in spots . Vertical ascent is focused chiefly above the DGZ. (time-sensitive because I'm too lazy to download the above files) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I often see ratios mentioned, however they rarely seem to play a huge part in turning a light event into a moderate event (accumulation wise) or a tiny bit of moisture into a light event. The rate at which the snow is falling and the amount of moisture is what really makes the difference. We rarely go much above 10:1-15:1 here. In this case, with not even a tenth of an inch of liquid likely, and maybe more like 0.05" or so, it could be the difference between 0.5" of snow and not even 0.75" or so. Add to that the possibility of not even all of this moisture reaching the ground/accumulating, and I would think any possibly enhanced snow ratios would be cancelled out or so minimal that they are not even worth mentioning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I often see ratios mentioned, however they rarely seem to play a huge part in turning a light event into a moderate event (accumulation wise) or a tiny bit of moisture into a light event. The rate at which the snow is falling and the amount of moisture is what really makes the difference. We rarely go much above 10:1-15:1 here. In this case, with not even a tenth of an inch of liquid likely, and maybe more like 0.05" or so, it could be the difference between 0.5" of snow and not even 0.75" or so. Add to that the possibility of not even all of this moisture reaching the ground/accumulating, and I would think any possible enhanced snow ratios would be cancelled out or so minimal that they are not even worth mentioning? Pretty much. If we were getting .25" it would be more significant as it could be 2-3" or as much as 5-6" in a clipper like this. .05" is so insignificant it could end up being nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I tend to agree that high ratio snow is rare around here. If you follow the NNE thread PF often talks about great snow events above 1500' that almost completely dry out down in the valley. I think that's applicable to many of our clipper events as we watch them come out of the higher elevations of PA. We are kind of like the valley. We have seen it a million times. We really need redevelopment to throw back some Atlantic moisture. Without it, it will snow aloft tomorrow and we are left with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think most of us see at least a dusting but I could see how a lot of it is virga as well and we just see flurries. South of I-195 looks like an inch or two, I don't see there being much chance for more since the clipper is flying along and overall looks weak east of the mountains without much upper air support. There could be a bump north at the last minute so we should pay attention for that, but overall it looks like it'll be a bare ground arctic airmass later this week. It could keep NYC's temp from dropping below 10, especially if the wind stays high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Upton has 1-2 inches for southern areas of nyc and less than an inch for northern areas of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think most of us see at least a dusting but I could see how a lot of it is virga as well and we just see flurries. South of I-195 looks like an inch or two, I don't see there being much chance for more since the clipper is flying along and overall looks weak east of the mountains without much upper air support. There could be a bump north at the last minute so we should pay attention for that, but overall it looks like it'll be a bare ground arctic airmass later this week. It could keep NYC's temp from dropping below 10, especially if the wind stays high. The 12z GFS actually shows some decent 700mb RH over the area for a time tomorrow. The main issue is that the higher resolution models are focusing the best lift near Cape May and there will likely be an area of subsidence to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Upton has 1-2 inches for southern areas of nyc and less than an inch for northern areas of nyc And Mt. Holly has less than an inch for anyone north of the Ocean County/Monmouth County border once you get east of KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Someone's gonna be in one of those bands that drops 2-3" but it's very difficult to pinpoint where it'll be. Models have sometimes been off by scores of miles regarding the placement so I won't begin to speculate where they'll occur. The warm Atlantic waters should not be dismissed either as they can add a little bit of fuel to the fire especially right along the coast and areas furthest to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 If it's too cold for snow, it should be near 0F by Wednesday Night for the Tri State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The 18z NAM is a hair north. It probably won't do much for the city but it does get some decent lift in Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 And Mt. Holly has less than an inch for anyone north of the Ocean County/Monmouth County border once you get east of KMMU. Mt Holly has a new snow map or something like Upton? The old one doesn't show anything for past storm and now this 1. I think this is the new 1: http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 18z has a inch around immediate western suburbs, less in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Mt Holly has a new snow map or something like Upton? The old one doesn't show anything for past storm and now this 1. I think this is the new 1: http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowRange.png Yes, that's their new map. Most of NJ now in the 1-2 .. so there was a slight increase in areas that had an inch or less earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think most of us see at least a dusting but I could see how a lot of it is virga as well and we just see flurries. South of I-195 looks like an inch or two, I don't see there being much chance for more since the clipper is flying along and overall looks weak east of the mountains without much upper air support. There could be a bump north at the last minute so we should pay attention for that, but overall it looks like it'll be a bare ground arctic airmass later this week. It could keep NYC's temp from dropping below 10, especially if the wind stays high. There won't be much virga at all, the moisture is decent on the soundings in the 5,000-15,000ft layer, also at 20 degrees you can snow at lower RHs, I remember the January 04 clipper we started snowing with an RH of 30 something%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The 18z NAM is a hair north. It probably won't do much for the city but it does get some decent lift in Central NJ. The RGEM looked north too slightly, these clippers always seem to bump north 50-75 miles..sometimes they even end up more north than the models running as they move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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