MJO812 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Happened here in 2013. We had a nice band that hugged the extreme south shore. Dropped 3" in about an hour and a half. The attitude in this thread and this subforum in general is horrendous. This isnt 01-02. Its going to snow eventually. Alot of negative nancys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z gfs around a inch.. Someone near phl or snj will get 3-4 from this Dont think so... 18z GFS was next to nothing for the metro... coating to an inch further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 One thing I learned about clippers is most of the time they are nowcast events ..so with that being said. Let's wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 One thing I learned about clippers is most of the time they are nowcast events ..so with that being said. Let's wait and see I would not be comfortable declaring anything til tomorrow...need to get some of the higher RES models in range. the 18Z RGEM looks pretty good for the BWI to PHL corridor but still too far out in the RGEM's range. Here it shows a general period of light snow 14-20Z but probably 1 inch at most. I could definitely see 2 down in that area the way things look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Dont think so... 18z GFS was next to nothing for the metro... coating to an inch further inland. You obviously should not dry hump snowmaps Snj could easily see 3-4 in spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 One thing I learned about clippers is most of the time they are nowcast events ..so with that being said. Let's wait and see Very true. They sometimes tend to end up with the heavier snow axis further north than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think it's better in clipper situations to look at the features and energy. The placement looks good for our area. I wouldn't concentrate too much on QPF. NYC looks good for an inch at least. Arctic fronts have a way of really squeezing available moisture. This is a strong front. I think 1-2 still has a more than decent shot. Most likely someone is going to cash in wherever the bands/focus sets up. I think NYC metro is still in a good spot here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ratios will be higher then normal. Would not surprise me if someone gets 2"-3" out of this. Regardless, bad start timing with the morning rush and school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 NAM is barely a coating here. 2-3" down near DC/BLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Some of the 12z guidance has shifted south (GFS, UKMET)...heaviest (if you can call it that) precip over central & south Jersey and the coastal waters...tough year for snow, so far. NAM seemed to place the "heaviest" axis over the metro area...but its wild run to run shifts the last few winters make it very difficult to base a forecast on. If I had my druthers, they would go back to running the ETA as the leading North American mesoscale model. The Eta was a wonderful model imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 I said it earlier and I will say again. With clippers IMO they are sometimes tricky to nail down ..even with a moisture starved one I can still see how we can eek out one inch ..heck better than rain IMO ...time will tell .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Ratios will be higher then normal. Would not surprise me if someone gets 2"-3" out of this. Regardless, bad start timing with the morning rush and school. Cold temps don't yield good ratios without decent vertical ascent. Going by the Coolwx graphics, the 18z GFS shows whatever minimal negative omega associated with the disturbance occurring over the DGZ in temps as low as -35C. I imagine ratios will be pretty putrid unless we can buy some meaningful radar echoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Cold temps don't yield good ratios without decent vertical ascent. Going by the Coolwx graphics, the 18z GFS shows whatever minimal negative omega associated with the disturbance occurring over the DGZ in temps as low as -35C. I imagine ratios will be pretty putrid unless we can buy some meaningful radar echoes Too cold in the DGZ is just as bad as not cold enough. A lot of people forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This clipper died a quick death. C'est la vie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This clipper died a quick death. C'est la vie. In the words of Warner Wolf, "You can turn your sets off right there." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Way south of where even I anticipated it would go, I would not be surprised if someone saw 3 or 4 inches near BWI or DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'd be pretty surprised if we saw over an inch down here. The southern trend has been a sight to behold. Hopefully you all are able to get a little out of this as well. The models tend to dampen these a bit more than reality...notice how now there is definitely some increased strength over SE PA and MD than models showed a day or two ago...in general dampening system weaken slower than models initially indicate, we may see a further uptick in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I remember making a post (possibly in another venue) last March about how all the near misses that month might symbolize a "Great Turning Point" against the NYC area as far as luck with snow goes...just as several events in the past sort of marked turning points heralding the recent snowy regime...more eerie symmetry. Either way...its been almost 11 months since the city saw a snowfall of more than an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Both gfs 00z runs give us around a coating to half inch.. Congrats snj and bwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 This clipper died a quick death. C'est la vie. We are still getting snow Both gfs 00z runs give us around a coating to half inch.. Congrats snj and bwi Let the north trend commence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 We are still getting snow Let the north trend commence The eternal optimist. We're going to have 10 days of cold and nothing to show for it; on the 12th day, there'll be three inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The eternal optimist. We're going to have 10 days of cold and nothing to show for it; on the 12th day, there'll be three inches of rain. and you are a negative nancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 and you are a negative nancy And you are unrealistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 on the 12th day, there'll be three inches of rain. I would have thought 12 drummers drumming...but if you say so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The eternal optimist. We're going to have 10 days of cold and nothing to show for it; on the 12th day, there'll be three inches of rain. I'm growing increasingly confident about a period of warmer weather sometime after March 15. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Looks like the second dusting of the year is likely here pushing my seasonal total to a whopping .4". I could see a squall with arctic front dropping a quick inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Never good to be in the bullseye 1.5 days out Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It is really funny how they say...life imitates art...or weather imitates life...or something like that...last year...we are like a bunch of fat cats...would barely notice a little dusting or clipper...like the millionaire who throws money away...then, due to a series of unlucky circumstances...he goes broke and he would beg for a single dollar so he could buy a bowl of soup...but he can't even get that much...just like we can barely manage to see a flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 As much as i LOATHE snow i think there will be a much better, dare i say decent shot of at least 5" on the 13th Of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The 12z NAM has ~0.05" West of the Hudson River and nothing East of there outside of the extreme south shore of Nassau County. The 4k NAM keeps the steady activity near Cape May and then offshore. I think we'll be lucky to see flakes tomorrow. Most of what falls should be virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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