mulen Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Alberta clippers,manitoba mallers rarely if ever redevelop i can remember one time where one of these systems stalled just doesn't happen,but hey you never know see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Mount holly has a preliminary snow map up when you click on winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Alberta clippers,manitoba mallers rarely if ever redevelop i can remember one time where one of these systems stalled just doesn't happen,but hey you never know see ya. We can occasionally get surprised here by them...clippers have a tendency to pulse up and down during their life cycle where a heavier band can develop. In the 01-02 winter the one system we got which I believe was a clipper briefly had a 3-4 hour period down in PA and MD where it dropped 5-6 inches of snow while everyone else saw 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Still a couple of days out so they alert us in the AFD and hold off with any menton of accumulaton in the the forecast until their confidence and the PoP increases.. not to nitpick (which i guess means i'm nitpicking)... but they do mention accumulation in their forecast.... "little or no accumulation expected." in the grand scheme of things there's only mild conflict with the AFD saying the "potential of 1-2" and the forecast saying "little or no accumulation expected" ....with a less than spectacular 50% pop. anyway we can probably all agree there will be within 1" of 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 not to nitpick (which i guess means i'm nitpicking)... but they do mention accumulation in their forecast.... "little or no accumulation expected." in the grand scheme of things there's only mild conflict with the AFD saying the "potential of 1-2" and the forecast saying "little or no accumulation expected" ....with a less than spectacular 50% pop. anyway we can probably all agree there will be within 1" of 1" 50 is a "safe" pop this far out and allows then the leeway to go in either direction. The "models" are higher than 50 but the models have been awful and clippers are finicky. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z NAM shows a nice band of snow over eastern PA being torn to shreds as it makes it's way into NJ, with just flurries and snow showers by the time it gets into eastern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Don't be surprised if it ends up being nothing or next to nothing. These always redevelop too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Don't be surprised if it ends up being nothing or next to nothing. These always redevelop too late. I dont think anyones counting on redevelopment. Just trying to get it to hold together to give us an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I dont think anyones counting on redevelopment. Just trying to get it to hold together to give us an inch Still going with a c-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Still going with a c-1". Three flakes and a gust of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I dont think anyones counting on redevelopment. Just trying to get it to hold together to give us an inchBut that's my point. Whatever is coming in from the West will dissipate as the low transfers. This area will be largely skipped over. I've seen it many times. The higher res models like the NAM are starting to pick up on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Someone is going to get a suprise. Ive seen enough of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 But that's my point. Whatever is coming in from the West will dissipate as the low transfers. This area will be largely skipped over. I've seen it many times. The higher res models like the NAM are starting to pick up on this. Which goes to my comment from earlier . . . We can't seem to buy a flake around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Which goes to my comment from earlier . . . We can't seem to buy a flake around here.The 1.5" I received yesterday is now a puddle of mud on my lawn. Don't sweat the little storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Which goes to my comment from earlier . . . We can't seem to buy a flake around here. I had some yesterday..didn't even have to pay for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Someone is going to get a suprise. Ive seen enough of these storms. The only surprise is expecting 2-3" and getting less than 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 But that's my point. Whatever is coming in from the West will dissipate as the low transfers. This area will be largely skipped over. I've seen it many times. The higher res models like the NAM are starting to pick up on this. Yeah that is true. In this case though, even on the NAM, the redevelopment is way too late for any land area anyway. Looks as if the 1" mark ends over extreme western NJ (maybe even PHL), with just snow showers/flurries anywhere to the east of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 There could be mood flakes. Maybe a dusting. This happens with every clipper and people are still surprised when 2-3" fizzles into flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 And people get suprised when a band that was suppose to "get eaten up" gives them 2"-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 And people get suprised when a band that was suppose to "get eaten up" gives them 2"-3".I can't recall that ever happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 not to nitpick (which i guess means i'm nitpicking)... but they do mention accumulation in their forecast.... "little or no accumulation expected." in the grand scheme of things there's only mild conflict with the AFD saying the "potential of 1-2" and the forecast saying "little or no accumulation expected" ....with a less than spectacular 50% pop. anyway we can probably all agree there will be within 1" of 1" So imo, little or no accumulation translate to a dusting or so..1 to 3 tenths.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 And people get suprised when a band that was suppose to "get eaten up" gives them 2"-3". If the models were showing a tenth or two of liquid maybe but the trend is drier. Maybe .05" of liquid at 20:1 to give us an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 No one should be expecting 3" with this system. At this point I think it's 50/50 whether we see a coating-1" or 1"-2". Be thankful that we have a chance for accumulating snow on this horrid godforsaken winter. Right now my seasonal high is 0.5" so accordingly that is where my expectations lye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 If the models were showing a tenth or two of liquid maybe but the trend is drier. Maybe .05" of liquid at 20:1 to give us an inchAgreed. .05" in a 6 hour panel amounts to very little. Even with great ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Upton going with 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Upton going with 1-2" Watch them downgrade by later tonight or tomorrow. Maybe next time . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I can't recall that ever happening here. Happened here in 2013. We had a nice band that hugged the extreme south shore. Dropped 3" in about an hour and a half. The attitude in this thread and this subforum in general is horrendous. This isnt 01-02. Its going to snow eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z Nam looks to be around a inch for the area 4k nam around a inch also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z gfs around a inch.. Someone near phl or snj will get 3-4 from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z ParA is a coating to half inch. Areas that saw 1-2 yesterday will prob not see more then that Tuesday...prob less..clipper looks good for snj and.phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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