eurojosh Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL @GFS NYE/Day. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp1_276.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL @GFS NYE/Day. http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp1_276.shtml And? Thats rain. Its the 276 GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL @GFS NYE/Day. http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp1_276.shtml That storm is likely to be a cutter if this first event is a big one and tracks into NE Canada, if this first event does not occur and basically just goes off the NC coast as a 1008mb low the NYE event is more likely to be a coastal system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL @GFS NYE/Day. http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp1_276.shtml And, just taking it at face value for fun...check out that blast after the front passes through (~300-h and after). Whoa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 A cutter generally follows a storm like this about 7 days later or so. Think early January 1996 before the pattern reloaded. Wouldn't surprise me to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 And, just taking it at face value for fun...check out that blast after the front passes through (~300-h and after). Whoa! Yeah. I take it all with a truckload of salt - but, that said, it's good (odd?) to see this active a pattern across the central east part of the country in a Nina year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 And, just taking it at face value for fun...check out that blast after the front passes through (~300-h and after). Whoa! Nice -20's and -30's © as 2m temps! Dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah. I take it all with a truckload of salt - but, that said, it's good (odd?) to see this active a pattern across the central east part of the country in a Nina year. Oh, I agree...a huge truckload of salt. But that's quite the blast of cold (and wind) behind it, if it were to verify anything like that. As you say, good to see it active though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 weather world says just flurries this weekend in PA and blames la nina la nina is having too much trouble trying to fight her way over a PNA ridge in Alberta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Amenzo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Phenomenal trends on 18z suite as well as 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z ens way south of the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 its in the southeast thread xmas storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z ens way south of the operational just an indication that the spread is still fairly large and we still have a long way to go but you can't be discouraged with the 18z trends thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I assume your complaining about the amounts in our area. The real explosive development starts just at and north of our latitude. Not ideal for us. not sure about that... the GFS has the low deepen from 1008 to 1004 as it moves from SC to the Outer Banks, then it crosses inside the banks (perfect track) and deepens about 5mb to 999 in the next 6 hours. Meanwhile there is a 1039 High over the northern US. Sometimes the pressure difference is more important then the actual pressure, the 1983 storm was only about 1004 when it crosses the outer banks. I think the storm starts to bomb in a decent location the GFS just takes too long getting the CCB going, and it may be model error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The western rtidge is in a good spot and undergoes a great amplification we do have a 50/50 low. I think the ridge amplification will force a storm track all the big cities wiill see at least some snow. There's an outside chance of a crappy 1/18/2009 like storm, but even then, philly north got some snow. 5th February 1995 is probably a more likely outcome, with a track a little further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z ens way south of the operational I don't think I'd be wrong if I said they are east of operational in coastal storms 85-90% of the time, so I don't think that mean much one way or the other in this particular storm I have pinned my hopes on the GFS ensembles many a time only to turn to mix/rain that's not to say to take the operational as gospel, rather, don't put much hope/faith in the ensembles, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 not sure about that... the GFS has the low deepen from 1008 to 1004 as it moves from SC to the Outer Banks, then it crosses inside the banks (perfect track) and deepens about 5mb to 999 in the next 6 hours. Meanwhile there is a 1039 High over the northern US. Sometimes the pressure difference is more important then the actual pressure, the 1983 storm was only about 1004 when it crosses the outer banks. I think the storm starts to bomb in a decent location the GFS just takes too long getting the CCB going, and it may be model error. Yeah, the track is not bad. Likely QPF will work out if this track continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yeah, the track is not bad. Likely QPF will work out if this track continues. yea I do not think this area gets shut out like the 12z euro indicated...but we are fighting the lack of good STJ moisture involvement this winter. Its why Nina's are progressively worse as you head south for snowfall. While I think we will do better then some models are indicating I think the true monster snow totals may start north and east of our area this time. Someone threw out Feb 5th 1995 and that may not be a half bad idea of how the snowfall distribution might end up only this should be a little east of that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 yea I do not think this area gets shut out like the 12z euro indicated...but we are fighting the lack of good STJ moisture involvement this winter. Its why Nina's are progressively worse as you head south for snowfall. While I think we will do better then some models are indicating I think the true monster snow totals may start north and east of our area this time. Someone threw out Feb 5th 1995 and that may not be a half bad idea of how the snowfall distribution might end up only this should be a little east of that track. wasn't it predicted that the northeast , north of 40n would do better this winter, and if that is the case, then what we get here in cent md would only be a mod storm, but any accumulating storm would be great on xmas day and eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 for those asking 120 ens op 132 ens op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 FWIW, the latest from the korean model which has had this storm for days .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 It's always fun at the end of a model thread to read over it and see the posts that people make and where they are from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Seems like 3/12 GFS 18Z members shear the storm to nothing, and that's what weighs down the mean. They are in great agreement through 84, then the 3 get sheared. The remaining 9 are in relative agreement through 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Seems like 3/12 GFS 18Z members shear the storm to nothing, and that's what weighs down the mean. They are in great agreement through 84, then the 3 get sheared. The remaining 9 are in relative agreement through 120. is there a link where i can get these ens members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 is there a link where i can get these ens members? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 is there a link where i can get these ens members? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf132.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can't read that model well. Is it still showing a hit for the mid-Atlantic? Yep, it's the 1000mb low near the top of the map. You literally have to turn your head upside down to properly see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Can't read that model well. Is it still showing a hit for the mid-Atlantic? sry i shouklda turned it upside down, usa is at the top upside down lol and yes shows a nice storm just off VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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