yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well, it looks like the GFS is going to switch back to a little further north and perhaps a bit more amplified for this run.... Though is quite the difference on the h5 map between 18z 96 and 12z 102 re the Atlantic low up there by Newfoudland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Closed h5 low near BUF at 114. ATL low has moved further north than where it was at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18Z looks better than 12Z but it continues to have the bowling ball solution where all of the other models indicate more of a southern low. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 it is just a little bit north at hr 114, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS SLP is in W NC while 12z GFS had it in W SC... which makes the QPF field move north at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 and the money shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 not a bad run.. with position of 700mb low i might be skeptical of the look at 120.. could easily dry slot in there. still a few inches which should suffice if continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Much better for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 and the money shot I can't even tell how much that bombs out, but that's all the precip??? WTF is going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 48 hr precip QPF map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 actually, pretty reasonable, closer to NAM and fits climo I could live with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pegs JFK as the bullseye? That'll be interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 shows 973mb at 150 on allans page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 that QPF map would make alot of us so happy.I would gladly take 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I can't even tell how much that bombs out, but that's all the precip??? WTF is going on? I assume your complaining about the amounts in our area. The real explosive development starts just at and north of our latitude. Not ideal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 where does it explode on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 300 and 200 maps for the 18z GFS OP looks nice as well. I'm intrigued to see how this works out over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 where does it explode on the euro close but east a bit / north a bit in the mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I assume your complaining about the amounts in our area. The real explosive development starts just at and north of our latitude. Not ideal for us. I agree with that, but the wrap around to the west is virtually nonexistent. I would expect a precip shield further off to the west even in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 close but east a bit / north a bit in the mid atl euro looks about 18 hours later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Good to see the consistency between runs. I'm not concerned with the small changes, yet at this point, it could easily go right back to the 12Z solution at 00Z but I like how it doesn't vary much from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looking at that QPF, Western Virginia gets jipped big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Pegs JFK as the bullseye? That'll be interesting.... Just misses. Zoomed in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 i hope it does come true for the NE they need a storm Odds are this storm will screw or hit both of our areas....its so washed up when it gets out of the OH Valley even an OTS scenario would do little for the MA region except maybe the immediate coast....we all need to hope this thing phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Just misses. Zoomed in.... That would be coastal Monmouth Not sure I want the 18z run putting a bulls-eye over my house......its just noise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z GFS slp placement near Charlotte @ 114hrs 12z ECMWF near Mobile Bay 12z UKMET near Tallahassee 12z GEM near Valdosta 12z ECMWF ens mean near Macon 12z GFS ens mean near Charleston 12z GGEM ens mean near Macon Just for thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The key here is the PNA ridge that will develop for a short time. We have not had one so far this month and as a result little snow for 195. What the PNA ridge does is it eseentially shelters the energy for the storm from the fast Pac flow that would otherwise tear it apart. This ridge instead drives the pacific flow up into a strong meridial flow into canada, then down the backside of the ridge. This will, again, shelter the storm and allow it to dig without disruption. That is why were talking about a big storm threat. If we did not have this feature, we would not have this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Way to early to jump on any one model. Just nice to see that the storm is still on the table with each passing run It may have been possible to say we had consistency if the GEM didn't pull a Scott Norwood this morning out of the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looking at that QPF, Western Virginia gets jipped big time. Its a stronger Wave on the 18z. So we get some over-run before the storm bombs to far north of us. I would still love to have 2-4 on Christmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Way to early to jump on any one model. Just nice to see that the storm is still on the table with each passing run Sadly your first post made more sense then 99% of the other posts in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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