Bluescat1 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 http://www.nco.ncep....8/fp0_072.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 FWIW, the 15z SREFs would appear to have the SLP in S MO at 87 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well, it's shifted the North Atlantic low way East... Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Compared to 12z GFS on the h5 level, 18z NAM at 78 is faster and appears to be stronger with the s/w in the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nam is much more amplified at 84 hrs than most of the 12z guidance except the 12z nam. The low placement looks similar though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Note the big difference with regards to the Atlantic low and in regards to the s/w in OK/TX region. NAM would appear to be much more amplified than the GFS 12z GFS h5 at 90 hrs 18z NAM h5 at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 very strong s/w in the 4 corners for a Nina year especially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Verbatim, I don't think it's likely the the NAM at 84 would yield a solution like the 12Z models. I can't see that shortwave diving to the Gulf Coast then sliding out or looping up and around...phasing earlier looks a little more likely. But I only kind of know what I am talkng about and it IS the NAM at 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I do not see how from that it would yeild a miss for the mid atlantic, however its the 84 hour NAM so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 18z Nam looks like the 12z GFS except a tad slower and more amplified....hard to say where it goes from here but I like the way it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The stronger wave is better. Also north of Euro. But like you said its the NAM at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I would assume the stronger the S/W, the less phasing that would be required to turn the trough negative in time to make it up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 this is the same 18z GFS....that on Sunday had the 850 Low traxcking thru WVA and VA and rain in DCA BWI and PHL right? dt, what happened to the bowling low with the models? Why is this now being progged to track so far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I would assume the stronger the S/W, the less phasing that would be required to turn the trough negative in time to make it up the coast? yea, i would think you want the stronger s/w to. The euro was less amplified than the 0z run and it was further ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looks as if the GFS is quicker this run with the Pacific energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The 18Z NAM looks to me like a slightly faster, colder, more northerly 12Z Euro at 84. EDIT: and the 18Z NAM S/W isn't positively tilted like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The 18Z NAM looks to me like a slightly faster, colder, more northerly 12Z Euro at 84. EDIT: and the 18Z NAM S/W isn't positively tilted like the Euro. NAM seemingly took the lead in every event last year this year it hasn't but neither have any of the other models, either in the short or medium range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Through 36hrs...18z GFS looks very similar to me compared to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For those wondering what the NAM would look like extrapolated: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 For those wondering what the NAM would look like extrapolated: how about the 2 panels before that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 how about the 2 panels before that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 thanks much LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow the DGEX looks real nice. Beautifully negative... BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 that should help relax some of the tension on the boards...last storm we never had the NAM on our side once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Wow the DGEX looks real nice. Beautifully negative... BOOM! it has a tight, closed Low at 120 hrs, opens back up and then closes to a broad 5H low, then tightens back up after 132 hrs a little unstable, but at 5-6 days I guess its to be expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 it has a tight, closed Low at 120 hrs, opens back up and then closes to a broad 5H low, then tightens back up after 132 hrs a little unstable, but at 5-6 days I guess its to be expected So does this move the storm a bit earlier .... i.e XMAS eve??!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 that should help relax some of the tension on the boards...last storm we never had the NAM on our side once Oh stop that isn't true. The NAM had really overblown QPF totals but it loved us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well, it looks like the GFS is going to switch back to a little further north and perhaps a bit more amplified for this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 So far, it looks like its gonna be north of 12z..and it does look more amplified.,..not sure what this means for folks in PHL/DC/RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like a mid-atlantic special. And it's on 12/25 too instead of 12/26. So it has picked up it's progress a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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