WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 January 5th deadline will pass and we wait to see what happens next. Something had to change and the pattern has changed. We have not yet established a new pattern but day after day of +4/+5 is no longer occurring nor in the short range future. Solid cold shot by mid week, see if that can hang around for a while, clipper cutting under us and then perhaps another cold shot early next week. Lake cutters had to go, no cold air in Canada had to go-they did. Not an established New pattern yet, but glad that 1/5 will not get here with the same old sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Amen Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We're definitely getting colder but cutters aren't gone. I expect multiple cutters over the next 2-3 week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We're definitely getting colder but cutters aren't gone. I expect multiple cutters over the next 2-3 week. I sleet storm, a la February 07, wouldn't be too bad---8 inches of sleet that froze like a rock and was on the ground for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Cutters will screw everyone...just have to hope we can get something that is well timed or not wound up. The lack of a block really hurts. A cutter can be a typical snow producer in January around here. Best case is front end thump, drizzle, dryslot, quick fropa. I'd be fine with any snow. If it takes the front end on a cutter to get on the board, so be it. We have some impressive cold coming. Even if it retreats it wouldnt be terribly difficult to have surface and midlevels in ok shape for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I sleet storm, a la February 07, wouldn't be too bad---8 inches of sleet that froze like a rock and was on the ground for a month. The sleet storm on Valentine's day in 07 was a storm my family and I will never forget. We were scheduled to depart IAD for Thailand via Tokyo that morning (were moving to Bangkok for a couple years). IAD was closed down in the morning, but we checked out of the hotel in Tysons anyway because we had to chance it. Nearly had a MMA free-for-all at the hotel squabbling over the min-van taxi that came to pick my family and I up (ordered it the night before). The other wannabes who thought they had a better reason for the taxi backed off when they saw my family and I with all our bags. We got to IAD and in line to check in just as the ticket agent got up on top of the counter announced too a packed United hall that all flights were postponed indefinitely except for one, which just happened to be our flight to Tokyo Narita. None the less, our flight was delayed departing while they finished opening up the first runway, so we missed our connecting flight from Tokyo to Bkk. Had to overnight near Narita and were fortunate to get a flight the next morning on to Bkk. In the middle of it all I caught a sinus infection and had to go to the hospital upon arrival in Bkk. Temps in Bkk were in the 90's and humid, which was a shock too after the sleet fest in our area. Then the first night in Bkk the heavens unleashed a torrent that flooded the streets, so it was a challenge to get home from the hospital. From one weather extreme to the other on opposite sides of the Earth, all within 36 hours. Makes one feel very insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 A cutter can be a typical snow producer in January around here. Best case is front end thump, drizzle, dryslot, quick fropa. I'd be fine with any snow. If it takes the front end on a cutter to get on the board, so be it. We have some impressive cold coming. Even if it retreats it wouldnt be terribly difficult to have surface and midlevels in ok shape for a bit. We usually get some kind of snow either on the front end or behind a cold shot like what is forecasted next week. I expect at least for my area to see some flurries or snow showers when the cold knifes in. It wasn't really progged 3-5 days ahead of the January 09 or Jan 14 arctic air masses, but both delivered a light snowfall here. The back side may offer something more substantial as you have been saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah we get a nice cold shot for a few days, but cutters aren't going anywhere in this pattern. Is this yet another odd Tenman thread destined for greatness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 November was a better pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 IMO this cold air is a winter saver. Sure, I would love snow just as much as the next weenie. But at least we get cold. That makes this winter better then 2011/12 in my book. Cloudy and 45 get really old after a while. I can't wait for some real cold (for our standards). Good trend btw. We needed some positive around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 IMO this cold air is a winter saver. Sure, I would love snow just as much as the next weenie. But at least we get cold. That makes this winter better then 2011/12 in my book. Cloudy and 45 get really old after a while. I can't wait for some real cold (for our standards). Not sure how a few days of cold saves winter. What would save winter would be a flip in the AO state and a legit -NAO to go along with a decent Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Cutters will screw everyone...just have to hope we can get something that is well timed or not wound up. The lack of a block really hurts. A cutter can be a typical snow producer in January around here. Best case is front end thump, drizzle, dryslot, quick fropa. I'd be fine with any snow. If it takes the front end on a cutter to get on the board, so be it. We have some impressive cold coming. Even if it retreats it wouldnt be terribly difficult to have surface and midlevels in ok shape for a bit. I went back and looked at some events that were either moderate or borderline moderate events that took place during crappy patterns in the midst of terrible winters. All the events took place in January and were mixed or changeover storms and of course the burbs did better in just about all the events. Most of them were overrunning or cutters storms. The furthest I went back was 1997. Here is the list of events. 1/9/97, 1/8/99, 1/6-7/02, 1/19/02, 1/17/08, 1/20-21/12, 1/24-25/13. There were a couple during January 2009 but I didn't use them because that was an overall cold month. The best of the batch was the Jan. 99 storm where some areas got as much as 6-7 inches before the second part of the storm came in later at night with all rain. With the type of cold coming next week maybe we can score with some type of similar storm. They do seem to like to occur in January. I could not find any clippers of substance during any of these bad years except for 12/05/07 so I guess we get the overperforming clippers during the more favorable patterns and years. Not that anybody needs to be reminded but it is very difficult to get and all snow event in a crappy pattern, but at least there is enough examples of where we can still expect some snow especially during January in even the worst of years. Febuary did not have much to offer in all of these awful winters listed above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Not sure how a few days of cold saves winter. What would save winter would be a flip in the AO state and a legit -NAO to go along with a decent Pacific. I agree. Personally.. I love arctic blast. Nice change of pace. I have a feeling we will all get our snow this winter. When it comes, we will appreciate it so much more.Edit: GFS adds a little sugar to the arctic blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 We're definitely getting colder but cutters aren't gone. I expect multiple cutters over the next 2-3 week. Cutters can be ok if they cut far enough east and there's a little cold hanging around east of the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 I really wanted to see something different by the Jan 5th date and I will. So by save I mean save for now and see what happens next. Thru end of next week it looks cold;that's a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This season is only 'lost' because a lot of people only seriously chase the big one. It's fun to play around but that's not how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I really wanted to see something different by the Jan 5th date and I will. So by save I mean save for now and see what happens next. Thru end of next week it looks cold;that's a good start. It's a vastly different pattern from where we've been. I agree about a save all things considered. Looks similar to last year for a time. Fast moving with in and out cold shots. Timing can't be figured out until short leads so it will likely be frustrating in med-long lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 Precip right now would be a problem. Don't see any within 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Umm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Umm. Ummm,..what? Low east of the cape and low north of Great Lakes. Not great snow look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Ummm,..what? Low east of the cape and low north of Great Lakes. Not great snow look...Ummm...it's a wacky GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think the "winter season save" trend needs more attention around here. Today was interesting. Temps sucked but the front passing through was pretty cool. More winter fun coming this week. Its not that bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 I think the "winter season save" trend needs more attention around here. Today was interesting. Temps sucked but the front passing through was pretty cool. More winter fun coming this week. Its not that bad.. It may be more than just a save, this week will tell something and then by Saturday we should know what next 5 days after will look like. The pattern has changed, we have not established a new one but that might be ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 It may be more than just a save, this week will tell something and then by Saturday we should know what next 5 days after will look like. The pattern has changed, we have not established a new one but that might be ahead. Definitely. That wind blowing out there is a wind of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 19, 2015 Author Share Posted January 19, 2015 Things got better around Jan 5th but we are still chasing a new and better pattern. The new deadline is 1/27 or 28th. We need something in place by then that will be beneficil and for the 5 days that follow and not another 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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