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January 2015 Arctic Attack Thread


Marion_NC_WX

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Where are those folks that were criticizing him earlier for calling for this cold shot a week out?

A couple of them posted on this page. DT also got at him.

Major kudos to the GFS para for sniffing out this event from 228 hours. Check out Brad P's tweet from December 30th and you can see the GFS Para with nearly identical temps to what is being forecasted now.

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Where are those folks that were criticizing him earlier for calling for this cold shot a week out?

I commented that his post seemed out of character because he usually sticks with the least extreme solution and model. He was posting the gfs para which was all alone in the extreme cold it was showing. Kudos to Brad P.

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I commented that his post seemed out of character because he usually sticks with the least extreme solution and model. He was posting the gfs para which was all alone in the extreme cold it was showing. Kudos to Brad P.

I remember that post of yours and thinking he was taking a rare risk (for him) in posting the para. 

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Still watching the chance of post frontal snow showers on wednesday. 

 

 

even MHX who normally wouldn't mention this chance at all has this in my point and click

 

Wednesday A slight chance of flurries after 3pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the afternoon

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You seriously need to read more and post less   :weenie:

FFC is not so bullish on the Arctic cold for GA in their AFD???? I heard this would plunge to the Caribbean...???

 
FFC......
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

I DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE GENERAL
TRENDS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THIS CYCLE. WEAK RE-
ENFORCING FRONT TUESDAY DOES NOT AFFECT GENERAL THICKNESS VALUES
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY DRY...FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED
SHORT WAVE IS FAIRLY STRONG...MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY MEASURABLE
QPF INTO NORTH GEORGIA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE NORTH. COLDEST AIR STAYS NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT
WILL ARE STILL LIKELY TO SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE HAD
SINCE AROUND THIS TIME LAST YEAR. SYSTEM COMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS A BIT HARD TO PIN DOWN. 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES DO NOT INDICATE ANY DEEP...ENTRENCHED COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION...BUT COOL AND DRY LOWER/MID-LEVELS HINT AT AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF WINTRY MIX BY EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS AND HPC QPF
ARE MINIMAL 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER 12Z SUNDAY AS WELL.

SEE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW...

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE EXTENDED WITH
STRONG TROUGH ALOFT DOMINATING MOST OF THE COUNTRY AND A VERY COLD
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGING INTO THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND
SETTLING OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DESPITE LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH...
AND HIGHS THURSDAY NOT EVEN REACHING FREEZING NORTH TO UPPER 30S
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
VALUES. STILL PRETTY DARN COLD THOUGH AND ADD TO THAT THE 10-15
MPH WINDS FROM THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND IT IS VERY
LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES...POSSIBLY A
WARNING...THURSDAY MORNING. SOME MODERATION EXPECTED TOWARD THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST BUT STILL
BELOW-NORMAL FOR TEMPS.

NEXT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ON THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY SIMILAR...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOWING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. DEFINITELY SOME QUESTION ON
TIMING OF INCOMING PRECIP VS OVERNIGHT LOWS. LAYER RH VALUES
INCREASE QUITE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS NOT SPITTING OUT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF. INCREASING CLOUD COVER MIGHT DEFINITELY
LIMIT HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOR NOW IT DOES
LOOK LIKE A PORTION OF NORTH GEORGIA WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...AND
WITH THAT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN OR SNOW TO NORTHERN ZONES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SUNDAY. OF COURSE THIS WILL BE REFINED
OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT POPS ARE PRETTY LOW...
BARELY THERE. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCOMING FOR SUNDAY BUT
WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SURFACE TEMPS SO NO ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS ABOUT P-TYPE AT THIS TIME.
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There were actually people who said this could rival last January's cold ? This won't even be close. At least 5-7 degrees warmer for both the highs and lows compared to early January last year. This is really just your typical January arctic air. Not even close to record cold. We see this kind of cold almost every January. In a typical winter, our lowest temp is around 12 degrees or so. 

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There were actually people who said this could rival last January's cold ? This won't even be close. At least 5-7 degrees warmer for both the highs and lows compared to early January last year. This is really just your typical January arctic air. Not even close to record cold. We see this kind of cold almost every January. In a typical winter, our lowest temp is around 12 degrees or so. 

:facepalm:

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It is really, really, really hard to have temperatures stay under 30 degrees if it is not snowing or cloudy here. It's impressive. 

 

Agreed, it's a very impressive cold snap that is literally a once in a year or two event.  Nothing to sneeze at.  Some years KATL doesn't even drop under 20 at night.....

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