calculus1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Is there any way to get wind chills from the models? Yep. Get the extracted 2m temperature and wind speed data. Then, use this formula: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Is there any way to get wind chills from the models? Yeah, most free model sites (instant weather maps, twisterdata, etc) along with the pay sites (WxBell) will put out a Wind Chill map in their data suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yep. Get the extracted 2m temperature and wind speed data. Then, use this formula: Geeeeeeeeeeez! Slow down there, professor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Geeeeeeeeeeez! Slow down there, professor. I was just trying to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I was just trying to help.I love the superscript 0.16! But on topic, what a massive high dropping down. I have no idea how this cold shot ultimately stacks up against last year's or other recent years, but a 1060 HP dropping into the US has to be a pretty rare occurrence, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I love the superscript 0.16! But on topic, what a massive high dropping down. I have no idea how this cold shot ultimately stacks up against last year's or other recent years, but a 1060 HP dropping into the US has to be a pretty rare occurrence, right? Let's call that an exponent, shall we? But, I agree. An HP of that magnitude is not a common sight for the CONUS. I believe this "arctic attack" will closely rival the temps of last January, and that is also quite uncommon. Single digit temps had been very rare in these parts prior to last January (when they showed up three times IMBY). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 1061mb high on the new GFS through 6z WED over Eastern MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Let's call that an exponent, shall we? But, I agree. An HP of that magnitude is not a common sight for the CONUS. I believe this "arctic attack" will closely rival the temps of last January, and that is also quite uncommon. Single digit temps had been very rare in these parts prior to last January (when they showed up three times IMBY). Superscript was more fun to type. I'd like get to experience antipositive numbers one time. The coldest I've ever been in was 2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 1059-1060mb over NE by 18z WED Gonna be COLD LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Superscript was more fun to type. I'd like get to experience antipositive numbers one time. The coldest I've ever been in was 2F You can correctly use nonpositive in that sense, but I don't believe I've ever heard of antipositive. (But, I think you're just having fun with making up mathematical terms now. ) 2 F is also the coldest that I have ever experienced, and it happened to be last winter IMBY. Maybe we'll beat our personal records next week, but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Lookin' a bit colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 You can correctly use nonpositive in that sense, but I don't believe I've ever heard of antipositive. (But, I think you're just having fun with making up mathematical terms now. ) 2 F is also the coldest that I have ever experienced, and it happened to be last winter IMBY. Maybe we'll beat our personal records next week, but I doubt it. Nonpositive could include zero. I needed a better word. Yeah, it doesn't look like next week's will do it. But if we can get into Larry's Phase 8 COD, then who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Nonpositive could include zero. I needed a better word. Yeah, it doesn't look like next week's will do it. But if we can get into Larry's Phase 8 COD, then who knows. Yep, it could. The freezing line at the surface is roughly the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 On the 00Z GFS, the temperature does not get above freezing from hour 90 to hour 135 in the western half of NC. That's almost the equivalent of two full days below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS continues to moderate temps as early as Friday, highs getting back to 40 in the Western North Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Tonight's GFS suggests that arctic front could squeeze out some flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Tonight's GFS suggests that arctic front could squeeze out some flurriesI don't get excited about flurries after early-mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I don't get excited about flurries after early-mid December. Yeah but arctic front snow is always fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Tonight's Euro has backed off the crazy temps it was showing in the prior run...still very cold but not as extreme as earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Agreed. It has some **potential ** fun and games around next weekend Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 FFC is already talking about issuing Wind Chill Advisories for Thu and thoughts on this upcoming weekend... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA639 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...EXTENDED STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIOVALLEY WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE BACK EDGEOF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A STRONG BUT DRYCOLD FRONT WITH IT AND USHERING IN A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS JUST PASTMIDWEEK. DEEP LAYER CAA BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENINGAND WE WILL START FEELING THE EFFECTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRASTICALLYCOOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS NORTHGEORGIA. EXPECT AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAYMORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH /SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS ANDLOWER 20S SOUTH/...AND HIGHS THURSDAY REALLY SUPER COLD AND MAYBENOT EVEN GETTING TO FREEZING FROM THE METRO AREA NORTH...ANDREMAINING BELOW 40 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. ADD TO THIS SOME BLUSTERYWINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IT ISVERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THURSDAYMORNING...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WARNING FOREXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN TEMPS FRIDAYINTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.NEXT RAIN POTENTIAL COMES AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHEN OF COURSECONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL BOTHTHE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERNPLAINS WITH PRECIP PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND.POPS WERE KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WILLHAVE TO REFINE THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS TO FIGURE OUT TIMING OFINCOMING PRECIP VS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.TDP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 FFC is already talking about issuing Wind Chill Advisories for Thu and thoughts on this upcoming weekend... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 639 AM EST SUN JAN 4 2015 LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXTENDED STARTS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHINESS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES DOWN THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING A STRONG BUT DRY COLD FRONT WITH IT AND USHERING IN A COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS JUST PAST MIDWEEK. DEEP LAYER CAA BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY EVENING AND WE WILL START FEELING THE EFFECTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRASTICALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. EXPECT AN EXTREMELY COLD NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH /SINGLE DIGITS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 20S SOUTH/...AND HIGHS THURSDAY REALLY SUPER COLD AND MAYBE NOT EVEN GETTING TO FREEZING FROM THE METRO AREA NORTH...AND REMAINING BELOW 40 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. ADD TO THIS SOME BLUSTERY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT WE WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN TEMPS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. NEXT RAIN POTENTIAL COMES AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED WHEN OF COURSE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT IN GENERAL BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH PRECIP PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. POPS WERE KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS TO FIGURE OUT TIMING OF INCOMING PRECIP VS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. TDP 18z GFS is now showing some snow from the front. Models never do well with these type of setups (for good or bad). http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=04&model_init_hh=06&fhour=90¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Been out of the loop since early yesterday afternoon, and have work to take care of this afternoon, so I may not have time to go back and see if there is an answer to this. So, anyone - if you can, please indulge me. Yesterday there was a lot of discussion about a 2nd possible very cold shot toward mid-month. A very quick gander at today's 6Z and the disco thread and this thread seems to be silent about this potential 2nd shot. Has it gone away in theory, or is it still on the table? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Right on cue - Jon answered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Right on cue - Jon answered!After Friday , it's just gonna torch the rest January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 After Friday , it's just gonna torch the rest January I'll take the under on that bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Right on cue - Jon answered!If you want to see snow, travel to Jacksonville Beach on Thursday. GFS/GFS P still showing the potential of Ocean effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 How about a contest for the low temps at some select reporting stations across the SE for this cold blast. I don't have time to set it up this afternoon but if someone else would I think it could be fun. Possibly start a contest thread? I have seen similar contests in the main threads on amex, I am not sure about the rules and how a winner is calculated. If someone has time I think it could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 If you want to see snow, travel to Jacksonville Beach on Thursday. GFS/GFS P still showing the potential of Ocean effect snow. Would if I could but I can't. In mediation Thursday .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Right on cue - Jon answered!And I didn't even see your plea! Lol. I think a second cold shot is very much on, I don't see January torching late but still a lot of model watching to do beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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