deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Its cold...nothing to be confused about...Its not as extreme as last night run NO...its more like the GFS it appears. I always thought that it was too cold. Now we have excellent agreement btwn the GFS, EURO and CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yes, its not as extreme cold as the last 2 runs, NO...but its pretty damn cold. I would say its like 8-10 degrees warmer this run. Might even be a little warmer than the GFS and CMC is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Either way it's still a very cold shot... models will shift around over the next few days on the severity but it's definitely going to be a change from what we've been going through over the past 30+ days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yes, its not as extreme cold as the last 2 runs, NO...but its pretty damn cold. I would say its like 8-10 degrees warmer this run. Might even be a little warmer than the GFS and CMC is showing. yeah it's 4 degrees warmer for RDU (14 vs 18 degrees) so depends on your backyard, definitely a lot warmer in the northern parts of the gulf states, because the cold didn't really dig as far south...to me I feel like we'll see some back and forth here between the models just how much cold makes it to the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 We did not have snow on the ground during the cold shot that brought us those readings last year. I'll have to go back and check but I had 6 single digit readings last year with 4 of those without snowpack. The lowest without snow was 4 and the lowest with snow was -1. I believe it was 9 on the first night of Snowjam with the -1 the second night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Oh ok thanks I was too lazy to look it up, I had a feeling that was the case but also -24 with no snow is wild.I can verify last year during that cold shot at 3500 feet we dipped down to negative 13 degrees with no snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Ya, this run shunts it east... The run is still cold overall no doubt. I would imagine somewhere in the middle with the models right now is the way to go. I never bought the super extreme runs. Either way, its going to get cold next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 yeah it's 4 degrees warmer for RDU (14 vs 18 degrees) so depends on your backyard, definitely a lot warmer in the northern parts of the gulf states, because the cold didn't really dig as far south...to me I feel like we'll see some back and forth here between the models just how much cold makes it to the deep south. Agreed..Its a lot warmer here, but whatever...Its still WELL below normal and very cold. I think it will go back and forth, like you said. Either way, there is consistency with it. It will move out quickly, but hey...its something that was showing a TORCH At times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Agreed..Its a lot warmer here, but whatever...Its still WELL below normal and very cold. I think it will go back and forth, like you said. Either way, there is consistency with it. It will move out quickly, but hey...its something that was showing a TORCH At times! I guess that means no freeze for Northern FL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I'll have to go back and check but I had 6 single digit readings last year with 4 of those without snowpack. The lowest without snow was 4 and the lowest with snow was -1. I believe it was 9 on the first night of Snowjam with the -1 the second night. Yeah, we had two outbreaks if I remember right. The first and coldest (if I remember right) was without snow. The second blast just a touch warmer was with snowpack after snowjam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 From Russia with love, indeed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Snow cover can do amazing things to temps. I'm surprised you were colder in that early January arctic outbreak considering you didn't have any snow cover. Snow cover can really plummet temps much faster than when there's no snow. My last post on the topic : In my experience snow cover can only do so much.... You are still dependent on how cold the upper levels are and how well that cold translates to surface temps.. I do agree though two air masses with the exact same qualities will see the one with snow cover translate to colder surface temps over the one with bare ground.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 From Russia with love, indeed... Wow, that's really cool. So this is tracking a parcel of air from one spot to another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow, that's really cool. So this is tracking a parcel of air from one spot to another? Yeah, I told HYSPLIT model (using 12z GFS run) to forecast where the air parcel at ground level in Clayton, NC on morning of January 8th is coming from and HYSPLIT traced that parcel back to 2 km above Siberia as of yesterday. EDIT: Correction: 500 meters above Clayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Yeah, I told HYSPLIT model (using 12z GFS run) to forecast where the air parcel at ground level in Clayton, NC on morning of January 8th is coming from and HYSPLIT traced that parcel back to 2 km above Siberia as of yesterday. Can you link this site please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 From Russia with love, indeed... and this is why we don't worry about Canada but cross polar flow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Can you link this site please? http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro EPS has a good cold signal...not quite as cold as last year. Looking back over the thread at it's core there were -30's showing up over the northern tier of the US with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Last year's January 7 2014 -8 to -24 in the High Country was due to elevation in areas at the 850mb level or higher up. They came close to the records of -36f 20 years back. Next Thursday looks like some -10f cold could very well occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I had no idea something like that Hysplit model existed. Pretty cool find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Here's something even cooler from NOAA HYSPLIT: I can enter in three different coordinates and have the model run backward trajectories for couple dozens of parcels all over Southeast. Here's what I got... As you can see, parcels on morning of January 8th from 12z GFS is coming to us from either Baffin Bay region or Arctic Ocean off coast of Siberia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z GFS looks a bit colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z GFS looks a bit colder? I hope so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 18z GFS, coldest 850s in KCAE are -11. Looks like we might make it to 26 or so for high/s.. around 18-19 or warmer for lows. mehpara gfs is warmer in kcae too with -9 lowest 850s.... saw around 29 high well, the "how cold can we go" excitement was fun while it lasted. still pretty chilly air regardless. Edit, btw.. its still cold and im excited for it.. I just went back to reality after seeing that 00z Euro last night. Seems it might be backing away from that extreme solution it had, but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Paul Kocin is saying this cold shot will rival last years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Surprisingly, the only place that might have the potential to see some flakes with this upcoming "arctic outbreak" is North Florida along the first coast. There might be some ocean effect snow along the coast like in January 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Paul Kocin may be talking about the northeast and midwest. I doubt he's talking about the deep south. I'm just hoping this rivals the arctic outbreak in November when we had a low of 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS a little colder this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 GFS a little colder this run? Looking that away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Looks the same as 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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