Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Well...there has been a definite change in the Tide (sorry Alabama fans, had to throw that in there) in regards to the models over the past several days. It looks as if the first full week of January is going to be very similar to that of one year ago... The past couple weeks have featured a raging flow from the Pacific combined with a strong Ridge sitting in the SW Atlantic which has sent many cold weather lovers looking for a place to hide after we initially thought that the timeframe around Christmas would turn much colder...yes, its been about a 2 week delay but from all indications we are not going to be disappointed in what's about to come down the pipeline... The ensembles (using the GFS) have really locked in to establishing a much better look with the west coast ridge extending all the way up into Alaska...where the current block has allowed the cold to cross poles and move into Canada and the Northern US...the big helper is that the re-stablished ridge out west has also dislodged the pesky pig ridge across the south...now opening to the door for a major discharge of arctic air... The following images on the ensembles (Days 5, 10 and 13) show the upcoming plunge followed by a brief relaxation only to re-establish itself by mid month...and on the side, I would keep an eye between days 8-10 just to see if any southern stream action could sneak up an icing event on the Upper Southeast (I-40, I-85 Cooridor)...but that's another topic for another day. The GFS, its para and the Canadian have been hinting at this for a few days now and yesterday the Euro decided to fold in that direction with actually the most extreme look of all...so the writing it on the wall with this one, even though I would not go as far yet as what the King is trying to say... Looking at the temps...a clipper system will travel from the midwest into the Ohio Valley and off the East Coast on Tuesday (late) delivering all the goods...by Wednesday (late) the coldest temps will settle into the Southeast US which will send the temps crashing...Look at the cold air as it progresses south and east starting late Tuesday through Thursday morning as it bottoms out across the Southeast. High's on Tuesday will be in the 40's in North Carolina ranging into the 60's to around 70 for lower SC and the lower half of GA and into Florida...but the arctic front passes through late Tuesday, temps on Wednesday could easily stay in the 30's across NC with one last day of 40's/low 50's especially south of I-20 before the mother load unleashes...Remember in last year's plunge how downsloping off the Apps kept some areas warm through mid afternoon and then as soon as surface mixing stopped the cold took over...I see a similar thing happening in this case...By Thursday morning everyone in the Southeast US will be in the teens to lower 20's, with upper 20's down into the Florida Panhandle. Temps in the SoApps Region and Foothills could fall into the single digits with temps above 3000 ft approaching zero... Tues 18z Weds 18z Thurs AM In summary, this looks to be quite an impressive arctic outbreak, I don't think it will be quite as bad as last year's event but it will be darn close...also, given the recent turnaround in the models, this could very easily come in a couple different waves throughout the entire month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Good post! If the Euro didn't completely flip and rival the GFS temps and match them, almost identically over most of the SE, it would still be in question...but with the Euro/GFS and their ensembles matching, this seems imminent. I don't remember how it went down last year but I don't seem to recall a model flipping that hard and lining up perfectly in one run. It will be interesting to see once it gets range on the short range models, SREF, etc just how much cold we're looking at. This has plenty of time to trend colder but there's always a worry of the cold bias in models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Looks like Elsa brought back winter on hiatus from November..... Now if we can just get something to hold, this shot looks like a quick hitter on the models right now. I am impressed/disappointed in the models as they didn't pick up on this very well until recently. I took a two day break and came back to models dropping an arctic hammer, I do wish it would stick around but it looks right now like an in and out deal. A lot of folks have been saying though that the models could not be trusted out past five days and this is a pretty good example. If this verifies it will be pretty cool considering nothing like this was being sniffed out last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 CMC going bonkers. Has sub freezing temps reaching almost Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Dan, looking at the Euro, the cold front blasts through at the same time of day that last years hit. Temps drop almost in the same exact time frame too. Almost spooky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 CMC has -10's showing up in Indiana. From Thurs - Sat temps never get above freezing for much of NC/SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Not only that but the CMC looks to be reloading on us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Arctic attack? Really? Watching too much CNN. Why don't we name it while we're at it. How about, cold front BLUE BALLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Dan, looking at the Euro, the cold front blasts through at the same time of day that last years hit. Temps drop almost in the same exact time frame too. Almost spooky. It's going to come close, I think. This could be another record breaker...odd that it's on the same day. Here's an old model run I have from the same time period....0F line came into central NC and -24 actually did verify in the mountains (I guess due to snow pack?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The Canadian has an 18z temp next Thursday of 21 at CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 It's going to come close, I think. This could be another record breaker...odd that it's on the same day. Here's an old model run I have from the same time period....0F line came into central NC and -24 actually did verify in the mountains (I guess due to snow pack?) Jon I don't think we had any snow anywhere in the mtns at that time. Those cold readings in nW nc are at Mt Mitchell and grandfather I believe. The rest are mostly locations below 3000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Jon I don't think we had any snow anywhere in the mtns at that time. Those cold readings in nW nc are at Mt Mitchell and grandfather I believe. The rest are mostly locations below 3000ft. Oh ok thanks I was too lazy to look it up, I had a feeling that was the case but also -24 with no snow is wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Where can we find the 2m Euro temps? They don't appear to be on this website's model center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Wow, another red flag that this winter has sucked. Making threads on transient cold shots 6 days out.. It looks right now that it will get cold but wow, desperate for anything at this point I see. We had a similar thread for last winter's January cold shots. I think it's appropriate, and I'm looking forward to it. How low can we go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 We had a similar thread for last winter's January cold shots. I think it's appropriate, and I'm looking forward to it. How low can we go? This shot will have to trend colder to match 2014 for my area. I managed a 3.5 f reading last jan. We shall see, right now I think add about 8-10 degrees on to the blast from last year.. We usually end up with 1-2 days that don't break freezing so it wouldn't be anything unprecedented here. It is something to talk about and I already told my fiancée to expect some cold to come next week, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 This shot will have to trend colder to match 2014 for my area. I managed a 3.5 f reading last jan. We shall see, right now I think add about 8-10 degrees on to the blast from last year.. We usually end up with 1-2 days that don't break freezing so it wouldn't be anything unprecedented here. It is something to talk about and I already told my fiancée to expect some cold to come next week, I got down to -0.3. The coldest reading I ever remember. Of course, having a snowpack on the ground greatly helped. My forecast for that morning was like 11. A huge bust. I seriously doubt this cold blast comes anywhere close to last January. It's not often you have temps of 0 or below south of I-20 in Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I don't see any hint of a -NAO. Ridging around Newfoundland is not a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 CMC has -10's showing up in Indiana. From Thurs - Sat temps never get above freezing for much of NC/SC/GA. Check please??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The JMA looks to bust on WEEK ONE...can't trust it on the other weeks if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Nice look by the GEFS day 11+...actually like that the trough is a little progressive at this range. Aleutian low too. Hint of weak -NAO trying to develop (knock on wood).for the last 4-5 runs the euro ensembles have been showing,and building on the low gulf Coast /se heights. Nino pattern taking control? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The DOC is up and running...Does he stay pissed at us for bashing it and release the hounds of the Arctic or does it show the SE ridge?? more at 6...jk on the last part. Just sounded like a good tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 for the last 4-5 runs the euro ensembles have been showing,and building on the low gulf Coast /se heights. Nino pattern taking control? I moved the post to the pattern thread, didn't realize we had a artic thread :-) But, yeah the GEFS has been ticking better with that. Even the EPS showed lower heights in the S/SE last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 I got down to -0.3. The coldest reading I ever remember. Of course, having a snowpack on the ground greatly helped. My forecast for that morning was like 11. A huge bust. I seriously doubt this cold blast comes anywhere close to last January. It's not often you have temps of 0 or below south of I-20 in Georgia. We did not have snow on the ground during the cold shot that brought us those readings last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 00z WED the doc has a 1054mb high about to roll into the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 There were three "main" cold blasts in January last year. The coldest one at the beginning of the month (a.k.a. "OMGZ POLAR VORTEX!!!") did not have any snow on the ground. However, there was another cold blast in late January after the cold late January Southern snowstorm that also dropped temperatures into the single digits here (though it was a few degrees warmer). There was also another cold blast before the southern snowstorm that did not have any snow on the ground (though we might have had some here since we got a half-inch or so on the 21st... though I'd guess that was melted by then). The cold blast we made the thread for was the first cold blast in early January. You can see a reading of 5 on January 7th, 7 on January 24th, and 7 on January 30th. It was remarkable to have three single digit lows in a single month considering we had gone nearly a decade since our last single digit reading here (2005, which was unusually long). GSO: (look at that -25F DP!) TEMPERATURE IN F: :PCPN: SNOW: WIND :SUNSHINE: SKY :PK WND ================================================================================ 1 2 3 4 5 6A 6B 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 12Z AVG MX 2MIN DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR ================================================================================ 1 50 29 40 1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.9 13 190 M M 6 16 190 2 45 34 40 1 25 0 0.42 0.0 0 6.3 25 310 M M 10 18 35 300 3 36 19 28 -11 37 0 T 0.0 0 11.2 36 300 M M 1 46 300 4 36 17 27 -12 38 0 T 0.0 0 3.6 10 200 M M 5 14 190 5 41 31 36 -3 29 0 0.51 0.0 0 4.1 12 60 M M 10 12 14 270 6 43 10 27 -12 38 0 0.21 0.0 0 16.2 28 290 M M 6 12 36 320 7 23 5 14 -25 51 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.7 18 310 M M 2 23 300 8 42 14 28 -11 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 4.3 10 190 M M 3 15 180 9 51 23 37 -1 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2.0 9 160 M M 7 15 200 10 43 35 39 1 26 0 0.82 0.0 0 5.4 13 50 M M 10 1 15 40 11 59 38 49 11 16 0 1.40 0.0 0 9.3 30 310 M M 10 123 36 310 12 56 35 46 7 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.7 22 280 M M 0 28 270 13 58 33 46 7 19 0 0.05 0.0 0 8.5 22 230 M M 7 1 29 240 14 56 34 45 6 20 0 0.28 0.0 0 5.5 16 290 M M 6 1 20 280 15 55 28 42 3 23 0 0.01 T 0 4.9 17 310 M M 6 128 22 330 16 42 30 36 -3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 5.1 14 240 M M 2 18 250 17 51 26 39 0 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.4 21 210 M M 4 28 210 18 37 26 32 -7 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.7 25 290 M M 2 32 290 19 51 27 39 0 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 9.1 24 280 M M 3 30 300 20 62 28 45 6 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.3 18 230 M M 2 23 220 21 47 25 36 -3 29 0 0.17 0.4 0 6.7 15 350 M M 6 1 22 350 22 29 17 23 -16 42 0 0.00 0.0 T 4.9 16 320 M M 3 20 320 23 36 17 27 -12 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 8.2 22 280 M M 5 28 280 24 25 7 16 -23 49 0 0.00 0.0 0 7.2 15 10 M M 2 22 10 25 39 18 29 -10 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 14.0 28 210 M M 5 35 200 26 52 18 35 -4 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 10.0 22 210 M M 3 28 220 27 61 30 46 7 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 11.1 20 310 M M 6 24 300 28 30 17 24 -16 41 0 0.11 1.2 0 9.3 17 50 M M 9 1 23 30 29 26 15 21 -19 44 0 T T 1 3.2 10 20 M M 7 14 10 30 35 7 21 -19 44 0 0.00 0.0 0 1.8 8 60 M M 1 M M 31 53 15 34 -6 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 3.6 9 220 M M 4 12 220 ================================================================================ SM 1370 708 968 0 3.98 1.6 223.2 M 153 ================================================================================ AV 44.2 22.8 7.2 FASTST M M 5 MAX(MPH) MISC ----> # 36 300 # 46 300 ================================================================================ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro looks to not be as extreme as last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 The DOC looks pissed again! Here comes the Arctic hammer!! 1056mb high over Nebraska!! YES, Nebraska by 18z WED...Ummm....this Shi* is gonna be just as cold as the 00z run it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro looks to not be as extreme as last night. Not quite as cold, but looks like the GFS and about like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro looks to not be as extreme as last night. Nope.. -20C stays north of NC while 0z had it near ATL by 138hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2015 Share Posted January 2, 2015 Euro looks to not be as extreme as last night. Really? Low bombing earlier in the right place should bring the arctic air deep...how far are you out to? NVM yeah I see it now, roughly 5 or so degrees warmer it appears... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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