midatlanticweather Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Anyone look ath these: http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Anyone look ath these: http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html Awesome! Thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Slick 90 day SST anomaly animation of new high resolution product from the NESDIS Coral Reef Watch site http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Slick 90 day SST anomaly animation of new high resolution product from the NESDIS Coral Reef Watch site http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif That's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Slick 90 day SST anomaly animation of new high resolution product from the NESDIS Coral Reef Watch site http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_90day_large.gif Very nice animation, easy to load and smooth to view. It's interesting to see the persistence of the GOA warm pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 20, 2015 Share Posted August 20, 2015 Aug IRI plumes are out. Dynamical model avg peaks at +2.5 in OND/NDJ, statistical model avg peaks at +1.9 in NDJ IRI plume averages continue to climb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Impressive run of westerly wind anomalies east of the dateline (central Pac), which is a key region for seeing warming occur specifically in Nino 3.4 - http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150415155358.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Comparison using values of the weekly OISST.v2 dataset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Big shift In northern Pacific SST anomalies in the last few weeks.... much more akin to the classic +PDO look now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 Comparison using values of the weekly OISST.v2 dataset... Based on current subsurface SSTA trends and OLR progression (tools to predict surface SST anomalies), it is looking like 1997-1998 is still the stronger El Nino in the coming months. Just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 1, 2015 Share Posted September 1, 2015 The big difference is the warm pool in the GOA this year. El Niño image: Source: NOAA (http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/1726v1_199711-201507-SSTA.png) The big difference is warm pool in the GOA this year. I think signs point to ridging happening further west this Winter vs 97-98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 The big difference is the warm pool in the GOA this year. The big difference is warm pool in the GOA this year. I think signs point to ridging happening further west this Winter vs 97-98. Wow. Welcome back! Great to see you on here, Chuck.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Wow. Welcome back! Great to see you on here, Chuck.... Cheers brother. A while ago I did research correlating Jun-August SSTA's in the North Atlantic with the following Winter's NAO state. The research proved to have high statistical accuracy. This Jun-Aug has a super -NAO signal in the Atlantic. One of the strongest signals I've ever seen, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Cheers brother. A while ago I did research correlating Jun-August SSTA's in the North Atlantic with the following Winter's NAO state. The research proved to have high statistical accuracy. This Jun-Aug has a super -NAO signal in the Atlantic. One of the strongest signals I've ever seen, actually. I remember that. It nailed the 2007 season when many thought we'd see a fun winter bc of the moderate Nino. I would guess this also becomes more central based and 1&2 cools down eventually because I think that maybe tied into the NAO. IF the NAO is negative....I've been hedging positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 BTW, I Agree 100% RE the n PAC warm pool. Just need to make sure it doesn't cool much, which I doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Good to hear from you Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 When does the monthly nino data come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 This El Nino is likely close to a peak. The subsurface and OLR trends are waning a bit vs where they were earlier in the year. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say that the El Nino peaks in October-Nov, then weakens a bit for the Winter. Research shows that it perhaps isn't the strength of the El Nino but it's tendency to strengthen vs cool that correlates best with Winter weather conditions. This makes sense, I think, because factors that contribute too SSTA cooling/warming are the main conductors of the weather patterns (OLR, MJO, etc...). If I'm right and the El Nino peaks early, we have a good shot at another awesome Winter in the east, 02-03 esq. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Chuck nino peaked in Nov in 1998. Isn't fall the climatologically favored time to peak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Chuck nino peaked in Nov in 1998. Isn't fall the climatologically favored time to peak? I believe the average peak is November-December, but some have peaked in Dec-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 I believe the average peak is November-December, but some have peaked in Dec-Jan. I anticipated a 1.8* Oct-Nov peak in my preliminary outlook like 5 weeks ago.... http://www.easternmassweather.blogspot.com/ The only aspect I'm now nervous about and may amend is my call for a positive AO/NAO. This has greater implications for the MA imho.....may not change much up here....and actually be bad for nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 When does the monthly nino data come out? Should be out by end of week or early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 This is chuck from easternuswx right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Also notice how the El Nino has taken on a much more western-based look in the last few weeks http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 This is chuck from easternuswx right? If it isn't, he's doing a very good impression. Chuck nailed 09-10 if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 This is chuck from easternuswx right? Yes. Been missing this stuff. Love how this El Nino is developing, starting in the Nino 1.2 then propagating to Nino 3.4. Aesthetically pleasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Yes. Been missing this stuff. Love how this El Nino is developing, starting in the Nino 1.2 then propagating to Nino 3.4. Aesthetically pleasing wut in the heck, dude, where ya been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2015 Share Posted September 2, 2015 Welcome back Chuck! Your thoughts always add a lot. I've been kind of torn for the past month. In the fall of 2010 I started correlating GOAK ssta in September with the ability of winter to deliver in the east coast. It has worked every year and I expect this year will be no exception but let's see where it is in 2 weeks before I buy the snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 The big difference is the warm pool in the GOA this year. The big difference is warm pool in the GOA this year. I think signs point to ridging happening further west this Winter vs 97-98. Welcome back, Chuck. The GOA warm pool is a potentially huge variable and so far it appears that this El Niño's warmest anomalies will likely be in Region 3.4 rather than 1+2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Welcome back, Chuck. The GOA warm pool is a potentially huge variable and so far it appears that this El Niño's warmest anomalies will likely be in Region 3.4 rather than 1+2. Hey Don, No argument at all, as I am not versed well enough in the particulars of ENSO to even formulate a worthy retort, but how can you discern that 3.4 is favored for the largest departures at this juncture? Subsurface? Region 1.2 is still the warmest, no? I know it is highly unstable, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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