donsutherland1 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has now risen to +3.3°C, which is 0.5°C below the 1997 figure for near this date. More importantly, that figure is 0.8°C above what has been modeled by the CFSv2,with the most recent run having moved the forecast peak from June to July. This region is very fickle and can undergo dramatic cooling, but with the CFSv2 missing badly on the current peak, it's perhaps more likely than not that the model's forecasts for this region are too cool for the weeks ahead. A basin-wide El Niño event is very likely the base case for this winter. Among the El Niño events that approached or reached strong status, only 2009-10 was a Central Pacific-oriented event. 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73, and 1991-92 were basin-wide events. Both super El Niño events (1982-83 and 1997-98) were basin-wide events. It's still too soon to know whether the winter will feature one or more months with ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies of +1.0°C or above. Both super El Niños did, and a super El Niño event remains a distinct possibility. Extrapolations from this far out are very difficult, so aside from having some degree of confidence in a strong event--Region 3.4 has now reached the strong threshold (though we'll have to see if it is sustained on a monthly and tri-monthly basis)--its full strength remains far from certain. Therefore, winter predictions are also premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 TAO buoys are now showing rapid and deep subsurface warming in the 180-150W area in association with the latest EKW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Still much cooler than 1997 in the subsurface layer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Still much cooler than 1997 in the subsurface layer: Absolutely, though as I mentioned a week or so ago in the other thread, there's an opportunity for 2015 to play catch-up in this department. 1997 was flying high at this point off the massive June WWB of that year, but the trades re-established until August, causing significant weakening of the subsurface anomalies by the end of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 TAO buoys are now showing rapid and deep subsurface warming in the 180-150W area in association with the latest EKW.Also, there is an extremely powerful ongoing wwb, so we are about a month behind 1997. The massive wwb hapened in June that year, this year, it's happening in July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 14, 2015 Share Posted July 14, 2015 Still much cooler than 1997 in the subsurface layer: Is that +9C on the 1997 chart? Holy cow!!! We might catch up some but doesn't look like we have enough juice underneath to reach 97-98 levels. The westerly winds will allow some of the warm pool to surface but won't necessarily have that big of an effect on subsurface anomalies. It's sort of like, no matter how hard I hit the gas in our small Honda Fit, the car's not going to go that fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Still much cooler than 1997 in the subsurface layer: https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/620669258545131520 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The 1997 KW was clearly higher in amplitude, even when adjusting for timing differentials. It's not even close really when looking at the progression of the thermocline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I put together these charts of 850mb trade wind index and SST anomalies based off data from NOAA. I chose to use a 4 month running mean for the trade wind charts to smooth out the numbers. For background if needed, the negative trade wind index anomaly values indicate where the east to west blowing trade winds are weaker than normal, or have reversed and are blowing west to east, a hallmark of El Nino. A couple of things stand out to me: 1) the pattern of the Central Pacific trade wind index anomaly graphs (2nd chart) closely mirrors the monthly SST anomaly graphs (3rd chart), but with reverse sign. I suppose once the warm pool (SST) has moved out of the west Pacific toward the dateline (as is currently the case), the final push to substantially raise the Nino 3.4 SSTs comes from westerly wind anomalies that have pressed east of the dateline. With the recent early July westerly wind burst, we’ve seen noteworthy westerly wind anomalies press east of the dateline for the first time this year (4th chart)….and 2) the charts overall reinforce the idea that the base starting point for this El Nino is high, so there’s not as much of a mountain to climb with the warming. A super nino appears to be within reach (ONI), but I suspect that whether or not it gets there is largely dependent on how strong, how persistent, and how far east the westerly wind anomalies build...and as we've seen in the past, predicting the specifics of ENSO is very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 A quick note for those who may find the Region 3.4 figures graphed above lower than what NOAA has reported e.g., most recently +1.5°C in its weekly report: NOAA is using the OISST.v2 data set in its ENSO analyses. The models e.g., ECMWF, are also still based on that data set. The ERSSTv4 data set is new. The GISS global land and ocean temperature anomalies have just incorporated the newer data set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 The latest subsurface anomalies: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 A quick note for those who may find the Region 3.4 figures graphed above lower than what NOAA has reported e.g., most recently +1.5°C in its weekly report: NOAA is using the OISST.v2 data set in its ENSO analyses. The models e.g., ECMWF, are also still based on that data set. The ERSSTv4 data set is new. The GISS global land and ocean temperature anomalies have just incorporated the newer data set. Don - yeah it is odd that varying data sets are used for SSTs, though I'm sure there are valid reasons for it. Just a note that NOAA uses the ERSSTv4 data set for ONI calculations, which is why I used it in the graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Don - yeah it is odd that varying data sets are used for SSTs, though I'm sure there are valid reasons for it. Just a note that NOAA uses the ERSSTv4 data set for ONI calculations, which is why I used it in the graph. I agree. I saw the label on the chart, so I knew that you were using the newer data set. Hopefully, it won't be long before a common data set is again being used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 IRI plume averages continue to climb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 +3.0˚ anomaly Nino would be simply unreal. The mean of that itself is already in the super Nino class being somewhere around +2.2-2.3˚. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 19, 2015 Author Share Posted July 19, 2015 new down welling kelvin wave forming which could reinforce the El Nino if it falls a little in the ASO period it might peak fully by the NDJ period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 For those who are interested, below is a link to a visualization of the 1997-98 super El Niño event: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov//vis/a000000/a000500/a000552/a000552.webmhd.webm Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=552 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 For those who are interested, below is a link to a visualization of the 1997-98 super El Niño event: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov//vis/a000000/a000500/a000552/a000552.webmhd.webm Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=552 Wow. This Nino is so different from the current Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Excuse my basic question but would it be prudent to watch the current SST anomalies along pacific coast (NW pacific) closely , currently the anomalies are favorable for a winter ridge are they not ? Meaning the + precip anomalies associated with a niño could be a tad further south if that persists as the jet could be a bit further south than the "ave" niño (thanks to SST) anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Wow. This Nino is so different from the current Nino.How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 How so?The current Nino is more wide basin with more shallow warm waters, while the one in 1997-1998 has deeper and more East-Based warmer waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Equatorial SOI Data Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Excuse my basic question but would it be prudent to watch the current SST anomalies along pacific coast (NW pacific) closely , currently the anomalies are favorable for a winter ridge are they not ? Meaning the + precip anomalies associated with a niño could be a tad further south if that persists as the jet could be a bit further south than the "ave" niño (thanks to SST) anomalies. The SSTA's in this area have gotten a lot of attention the last few years. In a lot of ways it's a chicken and egg discussion. Pattern persistence drives SSTA's. Is there a feedback mechanism back into the atmosphere once substantial anomalies are in place? Probably safe to say yes but only to an extent. And things can reverse faster than many realize. Here's July 2014 SSTA's. GOA region was roasting. By the end of September 2014 the anomalies had relaxed some but were still solid. Then October came along with a very strong and persistent low height anomaly over much of the warm anomalies. SSTA's responded quickly in just 30 days. However, the pattern reversed in Nov with the low height anoms retrograding to south of the Aleutians and + anoms covering the GOA (and up through AK). Had the October pattern persisted through November, most if not all of the + ssta's in the GOA would have been wiped out. There are varying opinions on this topic. My personal opinion is that warm anoms in the GOA region during the summer/ early fall don't necessarily tell us anything about ridge placement down the line. Once we get to Nov-Dec things become a little more clear obviously. I looked back at previous stronger nino events and the base state of the epo is mixed practically 50/50 during DJF. Not much to be gleaned there but the data set is too small to overthink anyways. One thing is for sure...relying on the PAC for a 3rd year in a row to overcome a damn persistent +ao/nao base state is something that doesn't give me any warm and fuzzies. Interior regions along the EC may survive but folks closer to the coast could be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Equatorial SOI Data Source SOI graph suggests that many of the models showing an early peak (vs. other NINOs) are onto something......I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Great point, Bob. The one think you can bank on this year is a pretty strong southern stream. Aside from a few Feb-March events in recent years, the SJS has been MIA the first half of the winter. Ridge placement will obviously be determined by the basin type of nino this is and that damn persistent GOA warm pool. I'm with you though, the east based look of this nino is given me the shakes at this early stage. As far as the NAO is concerned- we may be heading into a more -NAO base state based on the last month or two. Definitely a lot more negative values showing up this summer versus the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Great point, Bob. The one think you can bank on this year is a pretty strong southern stream. Aside from a few Feb-March events in recent years, the SJS has been MIA the first half of the winter. Ridge placement will obviously be determined by the basin type of nino this is and that damn persistent GOA warm pool. I'm with you though, the east based look of this nino is given me the shakes at this early stage. As far as the NAO is concerned- we may be heading into a more -NAO base state based on the last month or two. Definitely a lot more negative values showing up this summer versus the winter. Thankfully the overall SST config in the PAC looks a good bit different than 97-98. Especially in the PDO region. That could give us some clues where the low height anomaly persists in the npac. Keep it close to the aleutians and we won't exclusively roast and rain at least. 97-98 was completely overwhelmed by the persistent and strong vortex wobbling around the NE pac. Oddly though, between the last 3 strong events (72-73, 82-83, 97-98), 97-98 featured the best overall nao state. But it made no difference. 82-83 looks kinda crappy on paper numerically but things lined up a couple times for some big impact events in the MA. I'm rooting for a strong event combined with a stout +pdo and just letting the chips fall. If it rains in my yard so be it. I want to watch some big miller A's roll up the coast. They've been largely absent since 09-10. I don't count Feb 2014. It was too strung out and weird even though it produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Does anyone have a way to contact HM? I have some questions for him regarding ENSO and am unsure as to who would know how best to reach him. If appropriate, send me a private message. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 El Niño image: Source: NOAA (http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/1726v1_199711-201507-SSTA.png) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 soi minimums ...todays was -00.06 day.....1997...2015 soi minimums... 086...-38.04..........076...-35.90 101...-38.78..........098...-31.15 124...-37.85..........129...-46.94 143...-41.87..........135...-33.15 151...-85.72..........143...-17.75 162...-49.99..........156...-04.71 168...-61.70..........166....10.75 180...-21.54..........177...-48.73 188....02.84..........188....13.48 197...-09.84..........197...-31.46 204...-34.78..........202...-00.06 233...-33.88 260...-26.63 278...-32.98 308...-56.59 331...-44.58 032...-77.60 093...-52.94 120...-53.83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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