CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Statistical models are still more of a weaker ENSO. I think the odds of something stronger than this past winter may be higher, but I wouldn't get excited for moderate quite yet. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Statistical models are still more of a weaker ENSO. I think the odds of something stronger than this past winter may be higher, but I wouldn't get excited for moderate quite yet. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ We're very close to moderate threshold based on satellite data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Yeah big jump this week thanks to weak positive wind anomalies in ENSO3. We will see if it lasts. But its pretty big warming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Statistical models are still more of a weaker ENSO. I think the odds of something stronger than this past winter may be higher, but I wouldn't get excited for moderate quite yet. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Per this evening's free weekly newsletter, LC still doesn't think we'll have El Niño this summer and even thinks we'll have neutral negative! I don't agree at all as I'm expecting El Nino. However, if he somehow gets this correct, it would be one of the greatest seasonal calls in a number of years:"Part of the issue here is whether we will have an El Nino that builds through the summer into the fall and winter of 2015. I say no, on the idea that the general mean of forecasts are skewed due to the crazy depiction shown by the PC/CFS outlook (+2.8 deviation at peak). There are a number of outlooks that predict a neutral ENSO anomaly signal. Since the tropics are booming with thunderstorms, and drought appears to be at a minimum in the 'usual suspect' places like Africa, Indonesia, Australia, and South America, the scenario shaping up is to favor a gradual cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to a slightly negative phase this coming summer." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Definite wish-cast there. I think it was done to sustain the integrity of LC's hurricane season forecast. Without a new OHC update, we will not be able to fully grasp the extent of sustainment for this warm ENSO. For all we know, there could be a huge pool of heat down to 350 meters. I still think we will enter into permanent el nino sometime this century, similar to the Pliocene pacific state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Definite wish-cast there. I think it was done to sustain the integrity of LC's hurricane season forecast. Without a new OHC update, we will not fully grasp the extent of sustainment for this warm ENSO. For all we know, there could be a huge pool of heat down to 350 meters. I still think we will enter into permanent el nino sometime this century, similar to the Pliocene pacific state. What do you mean permanent El Niño? Do you mean that the waters in Niño 3.4 will be permanently 0.5 C or warmer than the surrounding waters to the north and south? If so, why would that be the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 What do you mean permanent El Niño? Do you mean that the waters in Niño 3.4 will be permanently 0.5 C or warmer than the surrounding waters to the north and south? If so, why would that be the case? Evidence for El Niño– like conditions during the Pliocene http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/16/3/pdf/i1052-5173-16-3-4.pdf Apparently there are many similarities to current conditions, including a reduced latitudinal SST gradient across the pacific ocean and significant evolution in ocean heat transport systems. To the best of my knowledge, it would be a permanent el nino in relation to the 20th century average. The sub-tropical pacific would also warm rapidly as the hadley cells expand. SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS Compilation of data from across the tropical Pacific indicates that surface and thermocline conditions were similar on both sides of the basin, resembling a permanent El Niño, during the warm Pliocene, and that the modern-day east-west asymmetry of the equatorial Pacific developed through the Pliocene as climate cooled. What are the global implications of this transition in tropical Pacific conditions over the past 5 m.y.? The transition is thought to have a global impact on terrestrial climate because data-based reconstructions of continental climate anomalies during the early Pliocene compared to today have an El Niño–like fingerprint (Molnar and Cane, 2002); however, the nature of teleconnections between tropical and extratropical regions that operate over long time scales will need further investigation. Observational data support the idea that the depth of the thermocline determines the strength of air-sea interactions that sustain Walker circulation with farfield global effects (Philander and Fedorov, 2003b). More specifically, shoaling of the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific occurred as the amplitude of glacial-interglacial cycles increased; it appears that as the thermocline shoaled, air-sea coupling increased, and the feedbacks that amplify solar forcing of glacial-interglacial cycles were strengthened (Ravelo et al., 2004). Studies that show further strengthening of the eastwest SST difference across the Pacific at the mid-Pleistocene transition (de Garidel-Thoron et al., 2005; McClymont and Rosell-Melé, 2005; Medina-Elizalde and Lea, 2005) also attest to the possible role of tropical Pacific air-sea interactions in the amplification of climate variability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 19, 2015 Share Posted April 19, 2015 Per this evening's free weekly newsletter, LC still doesn't think we'll have El Niño this summer and even thinks we'll have neutral negative! I don't agree at all as I'm expecting El Nino. However, if he somehow gets this correct, it would be one of the greatest seasonal calls in a number of years: "Part of the issue here is whether we will have an El Nino that builds through the summer into the fall and winter of 2015. I say no, on the idea that the general mean of forecasts are skewed due to the crazy depiction shown by the PC/CFS outlook (+2.8 deviation at peak). There are a number of outlooks that predict a neutral ENSO anomaly signal. Since the tropics are booming with thunderstorms, and drought appears to be at a minimum in the 'usual suspect' places like Africa, Indonesia, Australia, and South America, the scenario shaping up is to favor a gradual cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to a slightly negative phase this coming summer." That's so unlikely without a major pattern change. At this time last year subsurface warmth was already being torn to shreds. That's not happening this year. And wind forecasts don't show it happening anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 oni was +0.9 last week...up from 0.7 the previous week... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 oni was +0.9 last week...up from 0.7 the previous week... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Unc, Thanks for the update on the warming weekly. Consistent with this, the Cowan number as of 6Z today of +1.164 is the warmest I can recall since I started following his graph (last year I think). The chance of the 2nd year Nino ONI (3 month average) peaking only in weak is rapidly dwindling while the chance for strong is obviously increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 The latest April ENSO statistical model average is for a weak Nino peak while the dynamical model average is moderate intensity. Right now I'm leaning toward a low-end moderate peak (+1.0c to +1.2c). http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ Average, dynamical models 0.8 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 Average, statistical models 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 Average, all models 0.7 0.8 1 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 last weeks oni went up to +1.0...the el nino continues to get stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted April 28, 2015 Share Posted April 28, 2015 H/T to Philip Klotzbach for posting this on twitter earlier.... All 4 ENSO regions/indices weekly SST departures were at or above +1.0 C for the first time since November 15, 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 The nino has barely begun. Enso 1-3 is going to see massive ssta by day 7-10. Enso 4 and Western 3 are reinforced and so is the subsurface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 As forecast earlier, another strong WWB has emerged over the equatorial WPAC in conjunction with a nice atmospheric kelvin wave, which has helped kick off some TC genesis. The MJO is forecast to come to life over the next week or so and may help sustain it. The western warm pool is still strong and elongated to the east, which will likely help increase the odds of follow-on WWBs in that area(at least to my understanding here). Nino4 SSTs have stayed stubbornly high (and are now up to a whopping +1.4), but this doesn't appear to have halted Nino development in the eastern portion of the basin as the trades have been very weak nearly basin-wide over the past 2 weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Warm Water Volume 5-month running average in the main ENSO regions is now higher than last year and highest since the 1997-1998 "super Nino." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 Warm Water Volume 5-month running average in the main ENSO regions is now higher than last year and highest since the 1997-1998 "super Nino." I wonder how accurate those WWV estimates are for the 1982 super El Nino. I'm skeptical of those values, which are indicated here as being little more than half the values in 1997, yet 1982 was just a hair below 1997 in terms of Nino 3.4 and beats 1997 in terms of SOI and MEI. Speaking of SOI, the 30-day moving average has really taken a tumble as of late, below -10 now: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ If we can get a sustained period of 30-day averages below -15, that could be signs that we're going into a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 using the JMA data 1997-98 was the strongest at +33 while 1982-83 was a +28...1896-97 third with a +23... ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Index/jmasst1868-today.filter-5 last year hit +10 on the jma scale...It has to go as high as plus 15 to get into the top ten strongest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 SST is a very poor method of diagnosing ENSO strength. Depending on the degree of coupling, it's borderline irrelevant. Many metrics suggest 82-83 was stronger than 97-98, including the MEI, which is still a basic metric, but much more thought out than that ONI thing or any other SST-only garbage. MEI indicates this to be the 6th strongest on record at this juncture. Water vapor imagery this week is textbook el Nino. I like where we're going with this one. Looking forward to a fun el Nino-filled next 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted May 13, 2015 Share Posted May 13, 2015 SST is a very poor method of diagnosing ENSO strength. Depending on the degree of coupling, it's borderline irrelevant. Many metrics suggest 82-83 was stronger than 97-98, including the MEI, which is still a basic metric, but much more thought out than that ONI thing or any other SST-only garbage. MEI indicates this to be the 6th strongest on record at this juncture. Water vapor imagery this week is textbook el Nino. I like where we're going with this one. Looking forward to a fun el Nino-filled next 12 months. I wouldn't quite say that. The atmosphere forces the ocean (e.g. westerly wind bursts) while the ocean forces the atmosphere (shift of the Pacific warm pool undoubtedly alters the Walker circulation). If you have sufficient ocean warming, it's going to alter the global circulation, period. Of course in borderline El Nino events where you have lots of other factors at play, the ENSO signal can become overwhelmed. I agree that regardless of metric, this current warm phase is currently looking impressive at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 16, 2015 Share Posted May 16, 2015 SST is a very poor method of diagnosing ENSO strength. Depending on the degree of coupling, it's borderline irrelevant. Many metrics suggest 82-83 was stronger than 97-98, including the MEI, which is still a basic metric, but much more thought out than that ONI thing or any other SST-only garbage. MEI indicates this to be the 6th strongest on record at this juncture. Water vapor imagery this week is textbook el Nino. I like where we're going with this one. Looking forward to a fun el Nino-filled next 12 months. So this Nino is forecast to max out at strong? I thought it was mod or weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 So this Nino is forecast to max out at strong? I thought it was mod or weak. Several computer models are forecasting an event more significant than the 1997 super El Nino. I'll leave it up to you how much faith to put into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 17, 2015 Share Posted May 17, 2015 Several computer models are forecasting an event more significant than the 1997 super El Nino. I'll leave it up to you how much faith to put into them. interesting. Also looks like whatever the peak is, its more likely to peak in fall rather than winter. Im mostly interested in el nino to see what, if any, impact it has on local weather. Even then enso is only one factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Can someone briefly give me an idea of what the "normal" warm ENSO weather is for summer/fall in the south central US (OK/AR/TX)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Can someone briefly give me an idea of what the "normal" warm ENSO weather is for summer/fall in the south central US (OK/AR/TX)? NOAA has ENSO anomaly maps here - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/ Choose the parameter (temp/precip) across the top and the tri-monthly period on the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 As of right now (this week,) the SST anomalies near the Ecuador are up to +4C. That's huge. Haven't seen that for a long while. Great sign of El Nino. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.anom.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Thanks for the link griteater! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Looks like a new kelvin wave, separate from the bigger wave, is forming between 160 E and the dateline. Ongoing WWBs should strengthen this new wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Does anybody foresee the NPAC/GOA turning colder as the Niño progresses as it did in 2009 or no? I really quite new to studying ENSO so I appreciate the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 21, 2015 Share Posted May 21, 2015 Per Cowan, Niño 3.4 is down to +0.81, the lowest since mid April and down from the multiyear high at over +1.2. I'm assuming this is just a temporary cooling, especially considering how strongly negative has been the SOI in recent weeks: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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